A View From a Slightly Cracked Crystal Ball

2009

- The seasoned running back (Minor) which would take the pressure off the new quarterbacks is injured in fall camp and never is able to contribute as once envisioned.

Western Michigan

- A victory against an overmatched opponent.

Notre Dame

- Two former elite teams clashing.  Had ND knew how to manage a clock, Tate Forcier would not have had the chance to lead the winning come back.   ND exposed the weaknesses and inexperience of Michigan’s defense.

Eastern Michigan

- A victory against an overmatched opponent.

Indiana

- A weak opponent which was a 19 point underdog was only defeated by 3.

At Michigan State

- The loss of Center (David Molk) in the Indiana game eliminates O line cohesion for the rest of the season.  A turnover in overtime doomed Michigan.  However neither team from Michigan looked particularly good.

At Iowa

- Bad weather, -4 in turnovers, the injury and eventual loss of the starting quarterback all should have condemned Michigan to a rout however it was a late turnover towards the end of the fourth quarter by the backup QB that sealed a two point defeat.

Delaware State

- An easy victory against an over matched opponent.

Penn State

- The season continued to wear on the team.  -4 in turnovers and a quarterback that could exploit the now well known weaknesses in the defense lead to a beat down.

At Illinois

- Michigan is stopped at the goal line for a set of downs after a WR is pulled down from behind on what should have been the final nail in the victory.  The team visibly quits and is routed by a lesser team.

Purdue

- The inexperienced team is exploited by Coach Hope and poor execution dooms Michigan

At Wisconsin

- Wisconsin leans on the inexperienced team with its Offensive line and basically runs over Michigan.

Ohio State

- Michigan is -4 in turnovers, its roster is depleted and miscues dig a hole early in the game that forces the game plan allowing OSU to unleash its defense on Michigan’s O.

  

Last year Michigan was 115^th in turnovers, 116^th in red zone scoring, 116th in time of possession and 60^th in third down conversions in Division IA.  I cannot speak for all Michigan fans but I know it has been a painful couple of years of Saturdays in the fall for me.  According to the multitude of preseason opinions this year will be either just as bad or a middle of the pack minor bowl season which will probably end the tenure of Coach Rodriguez.  While I do not believe Michigan is back to elite status I do believe the team is further along in the recovery than most experts seem to think.  I believe that if Michigan can avoid an inordinate number of injuries and more than the normal allotment of bad breaks it can tally 8 to 9 wins and possibly a top four finish in the conference.  I know that challenging for top honors in the conference is still a year or so away but I do believe that Michigan will be more than respectable this year. The result will be a happier fan base and the continued tenure of Coach RichRod. 

 

2009 saw an increase over 2008 of almost 100 yards per game on offense, a 50% in touchdowns, 27% in yards per play and 26% in first downs.  This trend will continue in 2010 with the offense being ahead of the defense in its rehabilitation but both sides of the ball will be improved when the season is completed.  The offensive line will return with an average weight nearly 300 pounds and over 80 starts amongst the first string and with little drop off when spelled by the second string.  The increase across the board in experience will result in similar increases in the offense this year with the first edition in the Rodriguez of a returning starter under center and experience and depth throughout the offense.  This experience will result in fewer turnovers and more positive results in close games.  The defense will likewise contrary to the experts contribute to a better record in 2010.

 

Michigan’s defensive starting front will be the largest (average weight 269 lbs) and from what I can find, one of the fastest in the Big Ten this year.  Both sides of the ball are benefiting from the regime instituted by Coach Barwis.  Will the defense this year draw comparisons to the Michigan defenses of the Bo era or the 1997 national championship run; of course not.   Michigan’s defense will be better as the added year of experience will contribute to players maintaining position and hopefully reducing the number of big plays for the opponents.  I truly believe 2010 will present the Michigan fan base with more happy Saturdays than last year.

  

2010

September 04       Connecticut

- This game has the potential to be a hard fought battle.  Connecticut has 16 returning starters, will probably be a preseason Top 25 team and a contender in the Big East.  I feel however that Michigan will be the better Offense on the field as Connecticut’s defense is not fast enough to stop Michigan’s offensive scheme.   Michigan will be playing with more urgency all year but it probably will only be shown more during the three rivalry games.   Connecticut’s offense will score but I think by the fourth quarter Michigan will pull out a seven point plus victory.  Call it 1-0.

 

September 11       at Notre Dame

- Notre Dame will probably be coming off a close victory over an improved Purdue team.  That game however will show to the world that the personnel for the new scheme are not yet in South Bend.  The new QB under center for the Irish will still not be comfortable in his position when the Wolverines come calling and on both sides of the ball Notre Dames lack of speed will be their undoing (this of course will be contingent on whether you can see anyone’s shoes over the grass at the Notre Dame stadium).  Coach Kelly very well may bring Notre Dame back but I do not think he can develop in a few months the athletes on his roster since development was never a concern of the previous ND coaching staff.  Michigan will win this game probably holding off an Irish comeback attempt in the fourth quarter. Call it 2-0.

 

September 18       Massachusetts

- A game that should not be on Michigan’s schedule.  The Minutemen will be over matched and beaten for this payday game. Call it 3-0.

 

September 25       Bowling Green

- This representative from the MAC will be over matched in all areas of the game.  This will make Michigan 4-0 and probably move us into the Top 25 if the victory over the Irish did not do it. Call it 4-0.

 

October 02            at Indiana

- Indiana will be an improved team as will be the case for many of the teams of the Big Ten but Indiana is still not an upper tier school and following the tight game that should not have been last year I think Michigan will pull away early if the weather is not a factor and beat Indiana by 19 points.  Call it 5-0.

 

October 09            Michigan State

- Michigan State will be coming off a bruising game against the Badgers and will still be still be looking to establish a balanced offense.   MSU should have a decent passing attack but uncertainty on the offensive line and lacking a featured RB will make MSU vulnerable. Last year it went into overtime and inexperienced proved to be Michigan’s undoing, however this year Michigan will not be the same team and will stop the losing to MSU at two years.   This being a rivalry game will be closer than it should be but Michigan will when by 4 and start the annual unraveling of Team Green. Call it 6-0 and bowl eligible.

 

October 16            Iowa

- Iowa barley escaped the wolverines last year at home but I believe that with 16 starters back that Iowa will be a top tier Big Ten School.  I hope I am wrong but with Michigan coming off what will be a hard fought game against Michigan State and Iowa rested from its bye, I think Michigan will suffer its first loss of the year.  It is not impossible for Michigan to win this one and we will not be routed but unless Iowa’s O Line lets it down I fear we will be on the wrong side of the score this week. Call it 6-1.

 

October 23            Bye

- While Michigan rests, I think Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin and Penn State pull off conference victories.   This should put Wisconsin in the driver’s seat for top honors in the Big Ten.

 

October 30            at Penn State

- Last year Penn State’s quarterback fed on Michigan, this year they will lack one.  It will be a night time white out in Beaver Stadium and as far as I can see a tossup as to who will come out on top.  A Michigan victory on the road would be a signature win for Coach Rodriguez at Michigan but right now it is too close to say a win is going to happen. Call it 6-1-1.

 

November 06       Illinois

- Last year Michigan owned this game but following a very good stand by the Illinois defense, the entire Michigan team seemed to quit and the Illini went on to rout the Wolverines.  Michigan will remember the previous year and will not allow this team another victory.  Michigan should win by over two touchdowns.  Call it 7-1-1.

 

November 13       at Purdue

- Purdue will be coming off a beating at the hands of the Badgers and will by this point in the season not have the same team as injuries have taken some of the first string.  If coach hope gets a trick play to work this year it will not be enough to pull off a victory.  Michigan will win by at least 10 points at West Lafayette.  Call it 8-1-1

 

November 20       Wisconsin

- Wisconsin will have recently rushed around and through Indiana and be poised to win the conference title.  As long as the Badgers are not watching the Iowa vs. Ohio State score, they should beat the Wolverines.  Wisconsin’s offense presents the worst possible match up for Michigan defense.  Wisconsin’s offense will be another facet of the defensive scheme as it will grind not only yards up with its rushing attack but also kill the clock denying Michigan a chance to come back for a victory.  Call it 8-2-1.

 

November 27       at Ohio State

- Ohio State will not be happy as Iowa will last week have taken away their chance for an undisputed conference title and a shot at the national championship.  So the Buckeyes will be out to lay a beating on the team that they have owned lately but Michigan will be playing for more this time than just trying to make a showing in the game.  OSU has the better roster but in this rivalry game that has not always mattered.  My heart says we win but the facts seem to hold as a push at this point.  Call it 8-2-2.

 

Wisconsin should win the Big Ten this year, it probably will not be an outright title but it could be.  Iowa and Ohio State will be right there at the top of the conference also.  If the two that I see as too close to call fall the Wolverines way I think we can be the number 3 but more likely the number four team in the conference.  If the two go against us then we are looking at a fifth or sixth place finish in the conference.  However either way or something in between Michigan will be well on its way back to its former self.