Dwyane Wade To Leave Miami?

For the last month, everybody has been talking about 2010 Free Agency and more specifically, 'The Big Three' players involved. But while everyone has known for a while that Chris Bosh is leaving the Raptors, and while people play a 'will he stay or will he go' guessing game about Lebron James, everyone seemed to accept that Dwyane Wade was staying with The Miami Heat.

And who can blame them?

After a year or frenzied speculation, Wade has spent the last month reaffirming his support for the team that drafted him 7 years ago. He pledged his commitment to the team and has visibly been pitching on behalf of The Heat to all the other big name's in free agency. He's maintained his close ties with Stoudemire & Boozer, and most recently is rumoured to have held a mini free agent summit with Bosh & James, trying to get them to form an unstoppable trio in Miami.

And on top of this, he's gone on the offensive. If he were to leave The Heat, everyone assumed it would be to his hometown Chicago. In response to this speculation, Wade launched a scathing, unprovoked and ill-informed attack on the lack of loyalty shown by The Chicago Bulls to former players. The attack, though widely criticised, was taken by most to be a sign that Wade was planning to stay in Miami and was trying to make other potential free agent destinations look less desirable.

But has Wade's mood changed?

In the last 24 hours, there has been fervent speculation that Wade, the number 2 in free agency, so long considered to be the most likely to stay with his team, could be on the move. After what had appeared to be a routine 'lip-service' meeting with Chicago, reports arose that Wade personally requested a second meeting with Chicago with Chad Ford speculating that this would be to 'clarify issues around signing with the Bulls'. These don't seem like the actions of a player who is unquestionably committed to his team.

On top of this, Wade twittered 'I'm in a New York State of Mind' after having a meeting with The Knicks. Of course, this could just be him trying to be funny and making an off-hand statement which the media has snapped up and blown out of proportion. But everyone knows what's at stake in free agency and the statement is unlikely to be meaningless.

Of course Wade himself hasn't yet come out and suggested that he is anything less than completely committed to The Heat. But I don't feel that these new reports are simply media hysteria. The Heat, despite having the most cap space, have the weakest roster (even weaker than New York). You can talk about the allure of Miami and the lack of state tax, but they quite frankly have only one selling point and that's D-Wade. And with the fast paced cut-throat atmosphere of free agency, where at least one big team is likely to go home empty handed, The Heat need absolute commitment from Wade if they're to sign any big names. And Wade know's this; if he intended to stay with Miami, he would surely have already signed so that they have the strongest possible pitch to other agents. The fact that instead of affirming his commitment, it appears to be waning, could be more telling than people think.

So should he stay or should he go?

Reasons to Stay

The first reason to stay is loyalty. The Heat drafted him in the 2003 draft and he's played for them ever since. They've worked hard to surround him with the talent to win, shown by their 2006 championship and the aggressiveness of the team in clearing cap space for 2010 free agency. Then there's the fans and their love for Wade. In fact the main reason against Lebron James signing with Miami is that it is one of the only teams in the league where you can't imagine him being the fan favourite, there's seemingly no way that he could usurp the prodigal son Dwyane Wade.

Then there's the allure of creating a legacy. The Heat are quite a young team in the league yet they already have the title which Wade delivered in 2006. He will already go down as one of the greatest ever Heat players, there's no question of this, but if he stays, he could truly become Miami's Jordan (ironic given their symbolic retirement of Jordan's jersey). If Wade were to play all 15 or so years of his career in Miami, and deliver more titles, he would cement an unbelievable legacy, casting a shadow over all future players for the team.

And finally, there's money. The Heat can of course pay Wade more money than anyone else and for a longer period. With Lebron James, the extra year and extra money seem rather unimportant, seeing as at 30, he's still likely to be able to command a max contract (just look at Joe Johnson's new contract). But Wade is 3 years older and if he only signs a 5 year contract with another team, then he'll be 33 going on 34 when it expires. That's the age at which it becomes that much harder for a player to command a max extension: Nowitzki's just been offered one whereas Paul Peirce, at 32, has taken a 30% pay cut. The opportunity to make $30m extra could well be a factor for Wade.

Reasons to Leave

The main reason for Wade to leave is the weakness of the roster. Miami has of course had to dismember their team to clear the necessary cap space for this free agency, but how wise has their aggressiveness been? The only players left on the roster are Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley. Chalmers is a capable point guard but he's a rotation player at best and not good enough to be starting for a contending team. Beasley has shown potential in his 2 years in the league, 15-6 aren't bad numbers to be putting up even if they fall short of his stellar college stats, but he's no where near all star calibre and can't currently be relied upon as a 2nd or even 3rd option. Compare this to The Bulls, who have budding all star pg Rose and potential all star center Noah, or The Nets, who have former all star Harris, future all star Lopez and top prospect Favors. Both those teams have space for both Wade and a sidekick of his choice (Lebron or Bosh?) and both need a star shooting guard. Why do everything the hard way in Miami when he has ready made rosters in Chicago and New Jersey where he could slot in as the team leader?

Another reason for Wade to leave is the amount that he's accomplished for The Heat. He carried a good team to a shock championship victory, putting up unbelievable stats on the way to collecting a finals MVP award. Though his legacy in Miami could be expanded with more seasons and more rings, he has nonetheless cemented his status as an all time great for The Heat and unlike Lebron, he could leave his team knowing that he delivered a ring. But on top of this, in the last two seasons, Wade has absolutely carried the team. With a pitiful surrounding cast, Wade has somehow managed to put the team on his back and carry them to back to back playoff berths. He's been an absolute one man show in both the regular season and the playoffs, and this again means that he surely can't be blamed for bolting in free agency. He truly did all he could for the team in the last few years and their lack of success has to be blamed on everyone except for him.

And finally, there's Wade's lifestyle itself and the allure of New York. Everybody's been talking about how New York fits Lebron's lifestyle perfectly, but this applies just as much to Wade. The man's been considered the best dressed NBA player for god know's how long, and with his messy divorce finally behind him, he'd surely jump at the chance to join the New York party scene. Yes the Knick's roster is incredibly weak, but it's about as strong as Miami's was last year and Wade's never shown any problems in carrying a team to the playoffs. Plus with the chance to add the free agent of his choice, and with further cap space available next year when Curry's contract comes off the books, Wade could definitely build a contending roster in New York.

Yesterday he twittered 'I'm in a New York State of Mind'. Like I said, there could be more to that statement than it seems...