Conference Expansion: Searching For Facts Among The Fiction

So much to process, so little time.

With conference expansion coming to a head after a recent report by Orangebloods.com indicated the possibility of the Pac-10 conference inviting six teams from the Big 12, an endless stream of discussion has erupted from conference officials, donors and analysts alike.

With more theories than a BP executive— and about the same results— fans have had a difficult time sifting through what is fact and what is fiction.

But as each day passes, one thing is becoming clear— it's a matter of when, not if these dominoes in conference re-alignment begin to fall.

How they will fall is anybody's guess.

An e-mail sent out by Iowa State president Gregory Geoffroy to university donors indicated as much.

An excerpt from the e-mail reads:

"We believe the Big 12 Conference is the perfect fit for Iowa State University. We are committed to our membership in the Big 12, and we are optimistic that the conference will remain intact. However, we also recognize that the long-term viability of the Big 12 Conference is not in our control — it is in the hands of just a few of our fellow member institutions... We are doing everything in our power to represent the best interests of Iowa State in these discussions, but we also are sensitive to the huge uncertainty that has been created and recognize that the situation could evolve in directions that are not aligned with our interests. "

While stopping short of saying that there will be changes to the conference landscape, Geoffroy did prepare the donors for that possibility.

Reading between the lines, specifically that which indicates that the fate of the Big 12 is in the hands of "just a few of our fellow member institutions," it sounds like the Pac-10, the Big 10 or both have all but placed offer sheets on the table for some of these Big 12 schools and the rest of the conference is now forced to play the waiting game to see how it will all play out.

Word from inside the Texas A&M athletic department gives credence to the rumors as well.

According to a post by Austin American-Statesman columnist Kirk Bohls on Twitter, Aggie athletic director Bill Byrne has told his staff and coaches that reports that A&M may shift to the Pac-10 are true. Bohls said that calls to Byrne to verify the information were not immediately returned.

Bohls, who has followed the subject closely, has indicated that he believes these changes "could happen and could happen soon" but that it is contingent on whether Nebraska or Missouri decide to leave the conference.

If both schools receive official offers from the Big 10, however, conventional wisdom suggests they will jump ship and open the floodgates on the Big 12 demise.

No deals have been made and it is clear that we won't know anything official until they are. But it appears, to me at least, that changes to the Big 12 landscape are imminent.

From the tone of the e-mail to Iowa State donors, I would assume that the conference is left waiting for offers and decisions from the Big 10 concerning Missouri and Nebraska, both of which have made it no secret their interest in leaving the Big 12.

If either of these schools leave the conference, it is, in my opinion, a viable possibility that at least some of those schools rumored to be associated with Pac-10 expansion will follow suit. And if that is the case, it will indeed be the end of the Big 12 conference as we know it.

Whether it's Missouri, Nebraska or both to the Big 10 or if it's a complete exodus of some of the conference's major players and the demise of the conference as a whole is not yet clear and likely won't be until the deal has already been done.

In the meantime, I think I'll just continue to try and process the information.