How Will the Return of Darren Evans Affect Ryan Williams?

Ryan Williams stormed onto the fantasy football scene in 2009 as a freshman.

His emergence to starting running back was due to Darren Evans tearing his ACL during the 2009 fall camp. Darren Evans was the feature back in 2008, and now he returns to the in 2010. Can Williams retain his feature back role, or will Evans’ return create a split carry situation for the Hokies?

Cast of Characters

Ryan Williams (So)
Darren Evans (R-Jr)

What’s the Scoop?

Running back Darren Evans was the leading ball carrier in the 2008 season with 1,382 total yards and 11 touchdowns.

Fantasy owners looked for big things out of Evans in 2009, but there were rumblings that true freshman Ryan Williams could work his way into the fold. Williams is a dynamic playmaker that brought several intangibles that Evans lacked.

Then during fall camp Darren Evans tore his ACL. The running back situation was thrown into uncertainty, with several players vying for the starting job.

Ryan Williams emerged as the top back, racking up 1,835 total yards and 22 total touchdowns. Williams was able to showcase his big play ability as he became one of the top fantasy running backs over the course of the 2009 season.

Now Darren Evans is coming back from his injury and should be placed back in the discussion for playing time. The coaches will have to decide if they continue to feature Williams or work Evans into the rotation?

Who’s Gone?

The Hokies lose two offensive linemen for the 2010 season.

Left tackle Ed Wang and left guard Sergio Render move on, leaving a big hole on one side of the line. Tackle Nick Becton and guard Greg Nosal look to step in on the left side.

Fullback Kenny Jefferson graduates leaving the door open for redshirt senior Kenny Younger.

The Hokies also lose another blocker, tight end Greg Boone. Redshirt senior Andre Smith looks to be the best candidate to step in, but there are several other young players in the hunt.

Who’s Back?

The most notable name returning is quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

There have been large expectations for him to take the team to the next level. His leadership in developing the newcomers will be vital in helping the offensive line come together.

Wide receivers Danny Coale, Jarrett Boykin, Dyrell Roberts, and Xavier Boyce all come back. Three starters come back from the offensive line.

Center Deau Warren, right guard Jaymes Brooks, and right tackle Blake DeChristopher will give stability on the right side to the running game.

Offensive Production

Let’s take a look at how the carries have broken down over the past six seasons between the top two running backs in order to get a feel for what we could expect for 2010:

2009
Ryan Williams—293 carries
Josh Oglesby—78 carries

2008
Darren Evans—287 carries
Kenny Lewis, Jr.—64 carries

2007
Brandon Ore—267 carries
Kenny Lewis, Jr.—57 carries

2006
Brandon Ore—241 carries
Kenny Lewis, Jr.—54 carries

2005
Cedric Humes—162 carries
Branden Ore—160 carries
Mike Imoh—160 carries

2004
Mike Imoh—157 carries
Cedric Humes—130 carries

Over the course of that past four seasons the offense has utilized a feature back. Back-up running back Kenny Lewis, Jr. was the second leading back for three of those four seasons.

He and Josh Oglesb’s inability to show enough playmaking ability were a major factor in the coaches utilizing a feature back.

It was a different story during the 2005-2004 seasons. Two or three running backs were featured due to their abilities on the field.

Mike Omoh was the top back in 2004 in a split carry situation, but the emergence of Brandon Ore kept a split carry situation in play during the 2005 season. Once Imoh and Humes had graduated, Ore stood alone as the only feature back in 2006.

If Your Fantasy Draft Was Today (04/01/10)

History has shown that when there are more than one playmakers in the backfield, the coaches have utilized both backs in a split carry scenario.

If Darren Evans’ recovery goes well and he is back to his old form, it will be hard to keep him out of the production fold.

Draft Value

Ryan Williams
Williams has all the talent to be a Top Five fantasy running back. He should see his carries cut down due to the return of Darren Evans. It is unsure if the division of carries will be more of a 55/45 split, or if Williams’ big play ability will command more of a 60/40 split.

But Williams is a better receiving option, and his big play ability should help ensure that he doesn’t see a major dip in touchdowns.

Having a 200 pound frame also means that the coaches won’t have a reason for pulling Williams off the field in the redzone in order to favor a bigger back.

Don’t expect to see Williams have 20 touchdowns like last season, but it’s not impossible for Williams to reach the 15 touchdown plateau.

It would be best to avoid Williams in the top third of your draft. It’s going to be too difficult to predict if he scores 15 touchdowns, or only around 10 touchdowns. It will be his ability to reach the endzone that determines Williams’ fantasy value.

Let someone else reach for him in the early rounds. If he is still on the board in the middle third of the draft, you shouldn’t question drafting him. He will still be a good fantasy back in 2010, so waiting until the early part of the middle third of the draft will ensure that you don’t overpay for his production.

Darren Evans
Evans is a wildcard come draft day. Most fantasy owners will be pessimistic about Evans’ future, so his Average Draft Position (ADP) should drop considerably. Don’t let this turn you off to Evans’ fantasy value for 2010.

Evans is worthy of a late round draft pick for two reasons.

First off he is a good sleeper candidate, especially if he can command more of a 50/50 split of carries. Also, if you draft Ryan Williams in the middle third of the draft, Evans will serve as a good insurance policy as you make sure to “handcuff” the Virginia Tech running back situation.

Before you consider taking Evans in the last third of the draft, monitor player news emerging out of fall camp. You will need to hear that his running ability hasn’t been hindered by his ACL recovery. Also, his ability to generate a speed burst will be vital in Evans having fantasy value.

Missouri’s Derrick Washington tore his knee before the 2009 season. Washington was unable to show the same burst he had in 2008, and his fantasy production in 2009 plummeted because of it.

As long as Evans is running to form and showing decent burst, you should look for him as a late round sleeper.

Joe Arpasi is the co-owner of CollegeFootballGeek.com , your premier resource for college fantasy football information. Check us out.