Playing Pepper 2010: San Diego Padres

Has it really been just two seasons since Matt Holliday sent the Padres home (maybe--still not sure he ever touched the plate) in Game 163?  The Padres have quickly fallen on hard times since that playoff game.

Are things looking up?  I talked to the Avenger-in-Chief of Avenging Jack Murphy and websoulsurfer, the eponymous founder of his blog, about the future of the team in San Diego.

Web: The Padres had a relatively quiet, but still successful offseason.  Jed Hoyer, the Padres new GM, filled positions of need with less than a handful of moves.

C70: What is the key to success for 2010?

AJM: The same for every team: health, luck, and career years from EVERYONE! We have a young team and it'll be fun to watch them learn and grow this year. The key to staying in the wild-card hunt will be a healthy rotation. Chris Young has shown to be dominant at times in the past but he rarely completes the 6th inning let alone an entire season. If he can stay healthy, Kevin Correia repeats last years performance, Jon Garland takes to Petco (what 30 year old pitcher wouldn't?), Clayton Richard continues his growth, and Mat Latos or another young gun ably mans the 5th spot, the 2010 Padres should be all right. Those are a lot of "ifs" and "buts"....

Web: Health!

Yes I know most people would say it is having the young players step up, but I believe all those young players have to do or the team to be successful is to stay healthy and do exactly as well as they did in 2009. After all, the bunch that will take the field in April are mostly the same ones that won 37 of their last 62 games in 2009.

So I say health.

The Padres have been among the most injured teams in baseball the past 3 seasons. They set the major league record for player days on the DL in succeeding years and would have broken their own record again if it was not for the hapless Mets. At one point in 2009, the Padres had 5 starting pitchers and 4 starting position players and the key bat off the bench all on the DL. 40% of the 25 man roster was on the DL. It is not a coincedence that that was the worst stretch in the season for win-loss record.

In 2010 they must stay healthy.

That starts with the pitching staff.
Chris young, the Padres Ace by default, has been snake-bitten for the past 3 seasons. He needs to make 30 or more starts and return to his pre-2008 form.

Mat Latos, the Padres budding ace, has never pitched more than 123 innings in a professional season due to injuries. While he has overpowering stuff, he must stay healthy.

Overall the Padres set a ML record by having 15 pitchers start games in 2009 and 15 players made their major league debut for the team.

C70: What will be the team's strength?

AJM: Bullpen and the creation of runs. The Padres bullpen is always solid and 2010 should be no different with Heath Bell and Mike Adams holding down the back end. The offense will also look to create runs in spacious Petco Park. With base stealing threat Everth Cabrera and the above average speed of Tony Gwynn Jr., Will Venable, and Scott Hairston, I can see the sort of aggressive base running that takes advantage of opportunity.

Web: The Bullpen. 

The Padres had a great pen in 2009 ending up 7th in ERA and OPS allowed and they all return. In the Peavy and Hairston trades in 2009 the Padres added several good power pitchers for the bullpen in Admas and Russell, And they have two former 1st round picks  that may make the bullpen out of camp in Stauffer and Poreda plus a former top prospect in Sean Gallagher that is out of options.

And some of the Padres best pitching prospects are also relievers. Evan Scribner, Wynn Pelzer, Craig Italiano, among others.

C70: What could be their Achilles' heel?

AJM: Youth, no true #1 on the hill, and a relative lack of power outside of Adrian Gonzalez.

Web: Health and youth. If the pitching staff cannot stay healthy and young players such as Cabrera, Blanks, Venable and Latos are not able to repeat the level of play they had in 2009, then the Padres are in for a long and disappointing season.

C70: Who will be the team's MVP?

AJM: If Adrian Gonzalez makes it past the trade deadline he'll be the MVP without question. Since the likelihood of this happening is slim I'm going with Heath Bell. He'll save a lot of games and he's a leader. He's already professed a shot at the World Series. Every team needs a crazy S.O.B. to follow and Heath Bell is ours.

Web: IF, and its a HUGE if, he is a Padres all season, Adrian Gonzalez will be the teams MVP.

C70: Will a rookie make a significant impact on the team in 2010, and if so, who?

AJM: I think RHP Matt Latos is still considered a rookie so he's the best candidate of them all.

Web: Most of the top young players exhausted their eligibility as rookies in 2009. Everth Cabrera, Kyle Blanks, Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, Will Venable and Luke Gregerson all had enough IP or at bats to not be a rookie in 2010.

C70: Who will be the breakout player for the team?

AJM: Chase Headley. His swing started to make gains towards the end of last season and with the move back to his comfort zone at 3B I can see him figuring it out on the offensive side of things. Ditto for Will Venable.

Web: Kyle Blanks. I believe with a full year of at bats and getting to play just one position all season will give Blanks the confidence to excel. I predict "Gigantor" will explode in 2010, hitting 30+ hr and driving in 80+ runs.

C70: Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

AJM: Kevin Correia. He's a natural pick because he had a career year last year. Now is his chance to prove it wasn't a fluke.

Web: This is a very young team that should improve in 2010, but if I had to pick one player it would be Tony Gwynn Jr.

C70: Who is the most likely player to be dangled as trade bait?

AJM: Obviously the elephant in the room is affordable, Gold Glove, power hitting Adrian Gonzalez but I won't be surprised to see Bell dangled before a desperate contender.

Web: Adrian Gonzalez is the obvious choice here. Most people feel that a trade of Gonzalez is inevitable because the Padres just cannot afford the $20+ million salary he would command once his current contract is up after the 2011 season.

C70: What will be the team's final record and divisional standing?

AJM: The Padres will finish in 3rd place at 83-79. They'll be mentioned in the WC race after the all-star break but they'll never make a legitimate push for the post season. This strong effort, however, will ensure that Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell both survive the trade dead line and finish the 2010 season as Padres. To trade either while they have a winning record in July would be organizational suicide and lead to the unraveling of all the good will built in the last year between ownership and the fans.

Take away the miserable end to San Diego's football season, dearest Padres!!!

Web: I am very optimistic going into this season. My prediction for 2010 is 81 wins and 3rd in the NL West.

Thanks to both of these guys for their answers.  It looks like it could be another long year in San Diego, full of trade rumors.  Perhaps, though, they'll be able to rise above and surprise some people.