What The Leafs Should (But Probably Won't) Do On July 1

First thing's first: who are the free agents?  Now, we've probably all read more than enough about who the top guys are, so I've broken it down further into several categories (and by broken it down further, I mean I came home one Saturday night in...May...at 2 AM and typed this up.  It's been edited to account for those who have or are about to be signed).

Shrewd UFA Signings (Primarily under-30 glue players or young potential stars)

Marian Hossa, RW, 29

Steve McCarthy, D, 27

Mark Popovic, D, 25

Dimitri Kalinin, D, 27

Jason Williams, RW, 27

Jeff Finger, D, 28

Ron Hainsey, D, 26

Niklas Hagman, LW, 26

Antti Miettinen, RW, 27

Branislav Mezei, D, 27

Branko Radivojevic, RW, 27

Aaron Voros, LW, 26

Mike Commodore, D, 27

Jarkko Ruutu, W, 33

Dominic Moore, C, 27

Curtis Sanford, G, 28

Matt Cooke, LW, 29

Obvious UFA Signings (“Name” impact players)

Kristian Huselius, LW, 29

Stephane Yelle, C, 33

Kevyn Adams, C, 33

Michael Peca, C, 33

David Vyborny, RW, 32

Brad Stuart, D, 28

Brian Rolston, LW, 35

Mark Streit, D, 30

Sean Avery, LW, 28

Wade Redden, D, 30

Jason Smith, D, 34

Radim Vrbata, RW, 26

Ty Conklin, G, 32

Brian Campbell, D, 28

Mats Sundin, C, 37

RFA’s Worth Losing 1st Round Picks & Giving 8+ Year Contracts For

Corey Perry, RW, 22 (About to be signed to a 5-year deal worth around the $5.325 M per season contract that Ryan Getzlaf signed last season)

Andrew Ladd, LW, 22

Pascal Leclaire, G, 24

Valtteri Filppula, C/LW, 24

Jay Bouwmeester, D, 24

Andrei Kostitsyn, LW, 23

Andrej Meszaros, D, 22

Marc-Andre Fleury, G, 23

Mike Green, D, 22

Shaone Morrison, D, 25

2nd Tier RFA’s (Not Front-Liners (some right now, some ever), But Worth Losing a Draft Pick For)

Clarke McArthur, LW, 23

Tim Gleason, D, 25

Tuomo Ruutu, C, 25

Marek Svatos, RW, 25

Wojtek Wolski, LW, 22

Dan Fritsche, C, 21

Nicklas Grossman, D, 23

Steve Ott, C, 25

Joni Pitkanen, D, 24

Jarret Stoll, C, 25

Anthony Stewart, RW, 23

Patrick O’Sullivan, LW/C, 23

Kurtis Foster, D, 26

Josh Gorges, D, 23

Ryan Suter, D, 23

Nigel Dawes, LW, 23

Antoine Vermette, LW, 25

R.J. Umberger, RW, 25

Daniel Carcillo, LW, 23

David Backes, RW, 23

Ryane Clowe, LW, 25

Matt Stajan, C/W, 25

Brooks Laich, C, 24

Toronto has approx. $42,270,000 already accounted for this upcoming season.  This doesn't include any bonuses to be paid that will count against the cap this season (long drawn-out explanation, if you want it, read Bob McKenzie's latest article).  It does however include the $1 million to insure the team.  Also, Nikolai Kulemin's contract isn't yet known, though since he's going to play a large role in the team's offense (or at least that's the plan), let's assume he's near the rookie cap and say $2,000,000 for his contract (that includes bonuses; again, it's all in McKenzie's column).  So now that this has been established, these are the moves, based on the Salary Cap, that I would make as the Leafs GM.

1. Re-sign Mats Sundin to a 1 year (guaranteed) + 1 year (option), $7.5 M contract, without a full no-movement clause.  This is assuming that Sundin will play next season.  The negotiating mindset is two-fold here.  First, you sell Mats on the fact that if he leaves Toronto in this manner, he will destroy a 14-year legacy and become a massive villain in the city for the rest of his life.  And if that's not enough to sell him, let's get to the actual contract.

The no-movement clause allows Sundin to name several teams that, should the Leafs not be in contention at the trade deadline, he will be willing to move to.  Basically he cannot be traded until the trade deadline, but if the Leafs aren't in contention, he agrees to be moved.  By agreeing to be moved, once he is officially dealt, the second (option) year of the contract becomes solely at Sundin's discretion.  If he wants to retire, he can, and if he wants to play another year, he has already agreed to the salary.

Should Sundin agree to this, everybody wins.  Sundin saves his reputation in Toronto (which you gotta believe is a major reason why he is taking his time in making this decision), and it allows Toronto to get something legit back for him to continue the rebuilding process.  It also allows Sundin to survey the 08-09 landscape and see which teams have the best chance of winning.

Current Cap Number: $49,770,000

2. Sign Mark Popovic, D, to a 3 year, $3.9 M contract.

Popovic is a 6'1", 210 lbs. 25 year old defensemen who, after a few years of apprenticing in the AHL, played 33 games for Atlanta this past season (he's played 44 total games in the NHL).  Popovic is a shutdown defensemen who won't put up points, but whom you can trust to have on the ice in the last minute of any period, and on any penalty kill unit.  He has been brought along slowly and allowed to develop properly, and can be an excellent building block for the Leafs.

Current Cap Number: $51,070,000

3. Sign Dimitri Kalinin, D, to a 5 year, $18 M contract.

Kalinin has the ability to be one of the best shutdown defensemen in the NHL, but thus far has been a bit of a disappointment in Buffalo.  The more people talked about Buffalo's lack of desire to pay their top players, the more Kalinin became mired in mediocrity.  Maybe it was only a coincidence, but he was 25 at the time and on the verge of reaching his peak, so it's entirely possible that the two situations went hand-in-hand.  With that said, Kalinin is only 27, has played in the Conference Finals before, and his play/situation screams out for a change of venue.  A 5 year deal will assure his financial security and allow him to worry only about his on-ice play.  New Leafs Head Coach Ron Wilson can than worry about getting the most out of his new young charge.

Current Cap Number: $54,670,000

3. Trade D Pavel Kubina to the Buffalo Sabres for prospect Chris Butler, D, and either Marek Zagrapan, C, or a 2nd round draft pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

Buffalo's cap number currently sits just south of the $40 million dollar minimum, and including top prospect Andrej Sekera starting his full-time NHL career next year, have only 5 NHL defensemen, none signed past 2009-10. 

Buffalo can certainly afford Kubina, and they absolutely have a need for a top-4 offensive defenseman, considering they only have Yogi Spacek capable of playing that role.  In terms of what they're giving up, it's not a lot because of the fact that they're taking on the final 2 years and $10 million dollars of Kubina's deal.  What they are giving up is a very well-rounded prospect in Chris Butler (Buffalo's 4th ranked prospect according to THN), who's a little under the NHL radar right now, but who plays in all situations at Denver U and is their all-time leading scoring defensemen.  In the case of Zagrapan (9th, THN) vs a second round pick, Toronto would basically be giving Buffalo an outlet to get something back for a former 13th overall draft pick who so far has been a bust (but is only 21 and therefore worth Toronto taking a flier on), or a 2nd round pick in case they would rather continue The Zag Project. 

Again, for anyone who thinks this may not be enough, look at the NBA & especially the NFL, where the contracts being moved are deemed to be worth a great deal more than the player being moved itself, and therefore the deals don't look good on paper.  The NHL is already moving in this direction & will continue to do so in the Salary Cap Era.

Current Cap Number: $49,670,000

4. Re-sign C/W Matt Stajan to a 4 year, $10.5 M and C Dominic Moore to a 3 year, $1.8 M contracts.

To be honest, I'm really not sure what Stajan should be signed to, so that number seems pretty balanced - it's not cheap based on what he's done so far, but it's also not exorbitant based on cap considerations.  Moore, well I just plain love Moore.  Moore is the kind of guy you win Championships with.  Trust me on that one.

Current Cap Number: $52,895,000

5. Sign LW Aaron Voros to a 5 year, $5.5 M contract.

If you're not familiar with Aaron Voros, allow me to catch you up.  He was an 8th round selection of New Jersey (yet another shrewd Devils draft pick) in 2001 as an almost-20 year old.  While playing in College, he was named to the CCHA all-rookie team, and in 2003-04 was awarded the Terry Flanagan Memorial Award for Perseverance and dedication (that just screams "Heart").  He spent the next few years being developed by the Devils - again, not a bad thing - before Minnesota traded a 7th round draft pick in this past year's Entry Draft for him.  In Minnesota, he became a regular thanks to his bruising style and penchant for sticking up for Marian Gaborik and Pavel Demitra (both of whom he played with on-and-off throughout the season).

His upside is as a grinding forward who will fight anyone at any time, though he probably won't have to considering his size (6'4", 205 lbs).  He has the ability to play in the top-6 at times, possibly long-term as a grinding, puck-digging winger who can work the corners and create space for his offensively-gifted linemates (if you're old enough, think a much better version of Garry Valk).  Above all else, he's a heart-and-soul player, the kind of guy who wins, and whose teams win.  He's the kind of player the Toronto Maple Leafs haven't had nearly enough of in their lineup over the last 10+ years, and who they will need to get more like to have a chance to win the Stanley Cup in the years to come.  A Voros-Stajan-Mayers line is a legit checking line with the potential to be a top checking line.  Speed, size, determination - the Leafs very own version of Detroit's Grind Line.  The more I think about it, the more I love this idea.

Final Cap Number (including roster insurance): $53,995,000

Other moves that I would consider if I was Toronto, again keeping the Cap in consideration:

* Signing Marc-Andre Fleury to a 10-year, $70-80 million dollar offer sheet.

First thing’s first.  Whatever the dollar number is, you make it so that Pittsburgh has no ability to match the offer without having to deal Crosby or Malkin.  You can’t gauge that based on Pittsburgh’s current public numbers, but based on my previous article, $8 million should guarantee the Pens can’t match the offer. I read all about the changes Fleury made to improve his game this year, and after watching him play in the Playoffs, I couldn't be more sold on the guy.  He may very well be the next Martin Brodeur - he was the 1st overall pick in 2003 - and the Cup experience will only help him.  He's also on the extremely short list of guys who would be taken 1st overall if the NHL ever voided out everyone's contracts and did a league-wide draft.  To me, if you sign Fleury, you can give up the 3-5 first round picks for him, let Sundin go for the cap room and nothing else, and still come out ahead.  Fleury will keep you in every game, and the Leafs would win many games they had no business of being in.   They could also turn around and deal Vesa Toskala for a very good young skater (Washington for example would jump at the chance to get Toskala and has young quality names to move for him).  I also absolutely love this idea, and wouldn't be surprised in the least to see a team do this (believe it or not, it looks like Tampa Bay still has enough cap room to make a move like this, even if they sign Brian Rolston).

* Signing Valtteri Filppula to a multi-year offer sheet worth $5-6 million per year.  This would be regardless of signing or not signing Sundin, though it would hamper their ability to sign Kalinin, which may not be a bad thing considering how Filppula played in the Cup Finals.  It would however, cost Toronto several first round draft picks in the future.

* In terms of the remaining RFA's, going after any of the following:

Clarke McArthur, LW, 23

Tuomo Ruutu, C, 25

Marek Svatos, RW, 25

Dan Fritsche, C, 21

Steve Ott, C, 25

Patrick O’Sullivan, LW/C, 23

Nigel Dawes, LW, 23

Antoine Vermette, LW, 25

Daniel Carcillo, LW, 23

David Backes, RW, 23

Ryane Clowe, LW, 25

Brooks Laich, C, 24

* In terms of the remaining UFA's, I would have no problem going after the following players:

Jason Williams, RW, 27

Jeff Finger, D, 28

Ron Hainsey, D, 26

Niklas Hagman, LW, 26

Antti Miettinen, RW, 27

Branislav Mezei, D, 27

Branko Radivojevic, RW, 27

Mike Commodore, D, 27

Jarkko Ruutu, W, 33

Matt Cooke, LW, 29

Stephane Yelle, C, 33

Kevyn Adams, C, 33

Jason Smith, D, 34

Radim Vrbata, RW, 26

Brian Campbell, D, 28

I really have no idea what the Leafs are going to do tomorrow.  I feel like they will be actively trying to re-sign Sundin, and I hope they don't take no for an answer should he say that the first time.  Beyond that, I really have no idea what they're thinking.  They like Kubina based on last year's 2nd half, but if you can get a younger, better defensive player, and pay him less, why wouldn't you do it? 

Regardless, tomorrow is going to be a lot of fun, and I for one can't wait for the insanity.