NBA Draft Has Become Overrated

Last night was supposed to be exciting.  The fun was going to start with the NBA Draft’s second overall pick. 

Everyone knew Derrick Rose was going to Chicago, but the possibilities were endless after that.  Miami wasn’t going to take the kid with character problems from Kansas State, blockbuster deals were going to go down, and superstars like Elton Brand would be on the move.

A thirst for vengeance was to be born in the heart of Michael Beasley, after Riley publically butchered his character and then passed on drafting him, and new championship contenders were going to emerge. 

Or so we thought.  Then David Stern stepped up to the podium and announced, “With the second pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, the Miami Heat select Michael Beasley.”

You couldn’t just feel the air being sucked out of the room, you could see it.  The faces of the fans went from that of a nine-year-old boy laying eyes on his first set of Power Wheels to that of a nine year old boy who put too many Sour Patch Kids in his mouth.  Awful. 

Still, I thought, “There is hope.  Maybe the trade talks are still going on behind the scenes and Beasley will be moved by the time the fifth pick is announced.”  Then came the seventh pick, then the ninth, then the 12th—and like so many times before, built-up expectations that went unfulfilled. 

That’s when I realized that all the mock draft stuff I had read, all the rumor sites I had visited, all the phone conversations and instant messenger conversations I had with friends about who was going to go where—were all for naught. 

As I sat there watching Robin Lopez awkwardly struggling to put his hat on the Sideshow Bob style hair, I felt completely dejected.  It was at that point when it dawned on me; are drafts overrated?

Think about all the Mock Drafts we saw and read in the weeks building up to last night.  Last I checked, Chad Ford had version a 7.1!  The biggest trade of the night was the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves trading OJ Mayo to the most irrelevant franchise in the league—Memphis—for Kevin Love. 

For all the analysis that goes into deciphering every player’s skills, talents, and abilities, and all the commentary projecting where people will go and how franchises will be impacted, the draft itself is a huge letdown. 

To make matters worse, they cut to Stephen A. Smith after every pick for an interview.  This had me very distressed, as I had to quickly turn the volume down with the fear that one of his uncalled-for and unexpected outbursts in the middle of his sentences would blow out my speakers.    

Also, think about this.  Why is it that the same teams always seem to be in the lottery—the Clippers, Sonics, Grizzlies, T’Wolves, and Knicks?  These teams are like the dumb girl who forever and a day goes after the “bad guy”, and then whines profusely after she’s been cheated on for the 17th time.  At some point, look in the mirror and realize that the players who turn out to be busts are a reflection of your utter incompetence as a franchise. 

Year after year, these teams pick a player in the top five or seven full of promise and hope, a player to turn things around and finally make the team relevant.  But here we are a year later, and they’re trying to do it again. 

All that happens in the NBA Draft is a terrible team drafts a player with talent. The player either is a complete bust or a decent to good player.  When the player’s rookie contract is up, there are two options.  Either he is a quality player coveted by other teams, to which he gladly leaves, or he is a mediocre player whose best shot to stay in the league is to sign an extension with the foolish team that drafted him in the first place.  It’s the same script year after year.

Now I know some of you are thinking about LeBron, Wade, and Melo, and how they have all made their franchises relevant.  But for every star that comes out of the draft, there are ten who never even come close to fulfilling their potential. 

Let’s take a look at the class of 2002.  That was five full seasons ago.  I think it’s fair to say that if a player is going to be any good, five years is a fair span to judge them. 

Out of the 28 players selected, only three went on to be All-Stars—Yao (first overall), Amare (ninth), and Caron Butler (10th).  Picks two through eight were as follows—Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Drew Gooden, Nikoloz Tskitishvili (You could see the sweat dripping down Stern’s forehead when he had to try and pronounce that one), Dajuan Wagner, Nene, and Chris Wilcox. 

The rest of the draft was comprised of the likes of Melvin Ely, Casey Jacobsen, and Chris Jefferies.  There were some decent players selected, like Gooden or Tayshaun Prince (selected 23rd), but given the analysis and attention that the draft got, it proved to be vastly overrated. 

It would be much more worthwhile for analysts to look at upcoming free agents and break them down, because we know how they’ve played up to this point in the NBA.   

You pretty much know what you’re getting after seeing a guy play in the league for three or four years.  Either he is improving, or he is not.  Either he can shoot, or he can’t.  He is not an unknown entity. 

But spending hours upon hours breaking down the positives and negatives of someone like Dajuan Wagner is not worth it in the larger scheme of things. 

Don’t get me wrong—it is of dire importance for NBA Executives to know everything there is to know about a player, because they are the ones making the ultimate decision and it will impact their franchise. 

But I would argue the analysis and constant talk that fans hear in the weeks building up to the draft are unnecessary and exceedingly glorified.  We don’t need 7.1 versions of mock drafts. 

Not all drafts are bad.  Of the three major sports (football, baseball, and basketball), there is no question that the NFL Draft is the most worthwhile to watch.  Teams address a whole array of needs over the seven rounds (the New York Giants of last year being the best example). 

But in the NFL, teams are drafting players who have proven over three or four years in college what their strengths and talents are.  The playing field is much more leveled.  Is it easier to compare an LSU running back with a Georgia running back, or a 25-point per game guard from Lithuania with a 17-point per game senior guard from North Carolina State?  I think the answer is simple. 

The NBA makes the mistake of drafting players solely on potential rather than substance.  Unproven players are drafted all the time, while the NFL sticks to drafting guys who are not one-year wonders.  The MLB is guilty of the same mistakes as the NBA, but their drafts are not the front page of ESPN for five days straight. 

It should be pointed out that the NFL drafting system isn’t fool-proof either.  There are major busts in football as well, most often with quarterbacks.  However, at least teams have a better idea of who a player is and what they can do on the field because they’ve seen them do it against common competition.  The risks are far fewer. 

Though the drafts are important in each of the major sports, I feel that the amount of attention they get is undeserving.  It makes for great talk and debate leading up to the actual event, but the Draft itself often leads to disappointment.  When you go to a concert, the opening band shouldn’t be better than headliner.  That’s not how things work.