The MMA Fanatic: Analysis of Rampage/Forrest at UFC 86

At UFC 86 on July 5th, the most anticipated UFC fight of the summer occurs when UFC Light Heavyweight champion Quinton Jackson will defend his belt for the second time against the original Ultimate Fighter winner, Forrest Griffin.

The last year has been a defining one for the career of Quinton Jackson.  Since arriving in the UFC, he has erased the first loss of his career by finishing Marvin Eastman, and recorded wins over Top Ten light heavyweights Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson.  The first round destruction of Chuck Liddell, who had almost cleaned out the division, opened the eyes of many American fans who had never witnessed the potential and the raw power that is "Rampage." His first title defense, which in reality was the first unification bout in the sport's history, pitted Jackson against Pride's last 205 pound champion, Dan Henderson. After dropping the first round, Jackson out struck Henderson and maintained top position for the rest of the five rounds, earning himself a unanimous decision over one of the pound for pound best in the sport.

Forrest Griffin is on the road to realizing every bit of potential fans saw in him years ago on the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. The first step of that realization was stepping into the cage with former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz. Despite taking a beating in the first round that would've stopped a ton of other fighters, Forrest regained his composure and came out stronger than ever.  He out boxed Ortiz and stuffed many of his takedown attempts repeatedly. Even though the judges ruled the split decision in favor of Ortiz, many people believe Forrest stole the fight in the last two rounds. Even so, it was obvious that Forrest belonged in the upper echelon of the 205 pound division. He solidified that status with a third round stoppage of the number one ranked Light Heavyweight in the world, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. In that fight, Forrest easily looked the best he ever had, and threw everything but the kitchen sink at Rua.  He out boxed him, outwrestled him, used sweeps, passed guard almost effortlessly, avoided submissions...completely outworked the machine that is Rua and finally submitted him in the biggest win of his career.

I believe Forrest has a bigger chance of winning than most longtime MMA fans probably give him credit for. As shown in his decision win over Hector Ramirez, gone is the wild, haymaker loving brawler who beat Stephan Bonnar and launched MMA into mainstream USA. We now have a Forrest who is much more patient, cerebral, and who truly trusts his boxing skills and footwork.  The number one thing Forrest does NOT want to do is turn this fight with Rampage into a slugfest. Rampage easily has one of the hardest chins in the sport, so I don't believe Forrest can KO him with a punch.  Also, Rampage has serious knockout power himself, displayed in his testing of another chin of granite in Chuck Liddell. I believe the best game plan for Forrest is to utilize every minute of the five rounds to circle and score points with his combinations, and never getting over-aggressive unless he knows he has Rampage hurt.

Rampage needs to do the complete opposite and push the pace hard to Forrest. He needs to trigger that part of Forrest's instinct that draws him into a brawl, where Rampage's power and chin will definitely have the advantage. Since Forrest will use his footwork to keep the distance, Rampage also needs to cut the Octagon off and force Forrest into a clinch against the fence, where he can utilize his raw power to secure a takedown or a slam. Forrest's takedown defense was never much to be proud of, but he's shown vast improvement in that department since beginning training with Greco-Roman wrestling great and UFC legend Randy Couture.  The training has shown in his performances against Ortiz and Rua. 

I believe the fight truly comes down to the cerebral approach of Forrest and the aggressiveness of Rampage.  Even if one of them is hurt early, both men have tremendous heart and can never be counted at any minute of a fight. Their history of standup wars in the ring may be a foreshadowing of another to come at UFC 86, especially with the Light Heavyweight gold on the line. This summer's blockbuster matchup, with two of the sport's most entertaining and humorous fighters, will entertain outside of the Octagon as well as inside come July 5th.