2022 NFL Draft Could See More QBs Sneak into Round 1 Than You Think

Even in what is widely considered a weak class at the position, the quarterback prospects in the upcoming 2022 NFL draft class continue to dominate the discourse.

And it's no wonder; it's the most important role in the game, and yet many teams find themselves with a big, fat question mark at the position as we sit a month out from OTAs.

At DraftKings, the over/under for the number of quarterbacks who will be selected in the first round is set at a seemingly conservative 2.5. It was seven years ago that we last saw fewer than three quarterbacks selected in Round 1. Last year, five came off the board on Day 1; there were four in 2020, three in 2019 and five in 2018.

Despite Vegas' prediction, draft-day panic will lead to signal-callers getting overdrafted. Take the over on Thursday.

Per NFL.com's Tom Pelissero, the consensus among NFL execs, scouts and coaches are that two players, Liberty's Malik Willis (Scouting Report) and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett (Scouting Report), are all but guaranteed to come off the board in Round 1.

From there, it's anyone's guess, though around the league, the feeling is that Ole Miss' Matt Corral (Scouting Report), North Carolina's Sam Howell (Scouting Report) and Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder (Scouting Report) could all find themselves in the mix Thursday.

B/R's most recent mock draft saw just two quarterbacks come off the board in Round 1: Willis (to the Detroit Lions at No. 2 overall) and Ridder (to the Seattle Seahawks at No. 9).

However, this mock draft did not predict trades, and the B/R Scouting Department acknowledges that "certain players may slide further down the board than expected based on current slotting."

Meanwhile, in a mock draft published April 22 that did project trades, NFL.com draft analyst Chad Reuter had five, count 'em, five quarterbacks hearing their names called in Round 1.

Reuter sees Pickett (No. 2, Lions), Willis (No. 8, Atlanta Falcons), Corral (No. 12, Pittsburgh Steelers), Ridder (No. 16, New Orleans Saints) and Howell (No. 32, Seattle Seahawks in a trade with Detroit).

The over/under for total first-round trades this year is set at 5.5, per DraftKings, and those are often for quarterbacks. According to ESPN's Bob McClellan, heading into the 2021 draft, teams had traded up to select a QB in Round 1 29 times in the common draft era.

The San Francisco 49ers became No. 30 on that list last year when they traded up from No. 12 to No. 3 to select NDSU's Trey Lance.

And the Chicago Bears traded up for a quarterback for the second time in four years when they acquired the No. 11 pick in the 2021 draft and took Justin Fields, bringing the number to 31 since 1967. (Let's hope that works out better for them than drafting Mitchell Trubisky did.)

The B/R Scouting Department's most recent Big Board has 11 quarterbacks ranked inside the top 250. Ridder, Willis, Pickett, Corral and Howell represent the top five, and it's unlikely anyone after them, starting with Nevada's Carson Strong at No. 6, hears his name called Thursday.

"Ridder, Willis, Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett and even Ole Miss' Matt Corral all seem to be in the first-round mix to one extent or another. Howell is lagging behind," writes B/R NFL analyst Brent Sobleski. How these prospects are ordered varies, sometimes wildly, from one outlet or scout to another, but all these names, in some order, are ones to watch Thursday.

Meanwhile, we know there are at least five QB-needy teams heading into Thursday's Round 1; the Lions, Falcons, Steelers, Saints and Seahawks are frequently pegged as QB suitors in widespread mock drafts.

According to an AFC quarterbacks coach quoted by Pelissero, there is just "one guy that's got true NFL traits" in this class, and that's Willis. But drafting quarterbacks is all about balancing high ceilings and high floors, and to that end, an NFC team general manager told Pelissero, "Pickett is the most ready to play, so people may not want to pass on him like Mac Jones last year."

Ridder very well may have earned himself a first-round selection with his stellar performance in predraft activities this year, surpassing all other signal-callers at the combine with a 4.52 40-yard dash, 36-inch vertical and 10'7" broad jump and impressing teams in interviews:

Howell enjoyed a lot of draft buzz prior to this past college football season, but an exodus of Tar Heels talent (running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter and wideouts Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome were drafted in 2021) slowed that somewhat.

Still, as the draft approaches, teams seem to be remembering what they liked about Howell to begin with. He faced the team's deficiencies on offense head-on, rushing for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns. No one on the team topped his 183 rushing attempts. Indeed, he's been compared to Russell Wilson, and Reuter thinks that could cause the Seahawks to trade back into the end of Round 1 for him.

An NFC coordinator told Pelissero he felt that Howell "can throw it the best after Malik," while an AFC scout lauded the North Carolina product for being "super tough, super competitive, has no quit in him."

Then there's Corral, who was in the Heisman discussion in 2021 and whom an AFC scout said "quietly might be the top guy" in this class. (Another AFC executive had Corral ranked No. 1 outright.) It's hard to see how a player multiple teams have ranked as their top QB falls out of Round 1.

Despite an over/under set at 2.5, don't be at all surprised if four (and possibly even five) signal-callers end Thursday night with NFL contracts.

          

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