5 MLB Teams That Will Surprise and Disappoint in 2022
With Opening Day right around the corner, it's important to get ahead of as many predictions as possible.
At least, it's more fun that way.
Think about it like this: Just a few weeks ago, we weren't sure when we might watch Major League Baseball again.
Here we are after every major free-agent signing and plenty of marquee trades, with a decent look at the MLB landscape.
Now that so much has fallen into place, let's look at five teams that will surprise this season and another five teams that will disappoint.
Whether a team surprises or disappoints is relative to expectation, and we used the DraftKings Sportsbook over/under lines to help measure expectations.
So with that in mind, let's start with a surprise and then alternate with a disappointment.
Surprise: Kansas City Royals (74.5)
1 of 10
Since they weren't at the forefront of all the offseason moving and shaking, it may come as a surprise to see the Kansas City Royals return to relevancy.
But it's coming.
They have the top rookie prospect in Bobby Witt Jr., who should make an immediate impact. Kansas City is also hoping for a repeat performance from Nicky Lopez, who posted the team's highest individual WAR (4.4) and to keep Adalberto Mondesi healthy while possibly moving him to third base to make room for Witt at shortstop.
The Royals are in a much more competitive division than it was a year ago, but they will be part of the reason for that.
The surprise could still fall short of them overtaking the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central, but they can no longer be overlooked.
Disappoint: Chicago White Sox (91.5)
2 of 10
Just look around the Chicago White Sox. Everyone else in the AL Central, except for the Cleveland Guardians, got better this offseason.
The White Sox are still favorites to win the division but expect the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals to close the gap.
Carlos Correa signing in Minnesota changed the Twins' trajectory. Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez improved an up-and-coming Tigers roster. The Royals have a load of young talent, with the anticipation of rookie Bobby Witt Jr. possibly having a breakout year.
All the White Sox have really done this offseason is load up on their bullpen. However, nothing elevates them past the team that fell short against the Houston Astros in the ALDS last postseason.
Surprise: Detroit Tigers (77.5)
3 of 10
The Detroit Tigers are building something that could eventually be special. No one is really expecting the Tigers to compete for a division title this year, but there should be a noticeable improvement in A.J. Hinch's second season as manager.
They added Eduardo Rodriguez in free agency to slot in as the No. 1 starter, while the young Casey Mize is expected to take a step forward as their No. 2.
The Javier Baez signing gives the Tigers a star shortstop in the middle of the order. Outfielders Akil Baddoo and Robbie Grossman are solid options at the top of the order.
Detroit won 77 games last season after being projected to win fewer than 70. Enough improvements have been made to the roster to expect them to surprise folks and win 80-plus games.
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Disappoint: San Diego Padres (88.5)
4 of 10
The San Diego Padres are already a bit of a disappointment even before the season begins. The lockout forced a delayed spring training, particularly damaging for a squad looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2021.
Then to make matters worse, their star player and one of the best in the game will miss significant time with a fractured wrist.
The renewed health of Fernando Tatis Jr. was supposed to be a bright spot for San Diego entering this season. His shoulder injury, along with bad injury luck among the pitching staff, ruined the Padres’' chances of meeting lofty expectations last year.
Now, here they are with Mike Clevinger returning from injury, and they can't even rely on a clean bill of health from their most important player out of the gate.
Surprise: Seattle Mariners (83.5)
5 of 10
For the last five years, the AL West has been the Astros' division to win, with the Oakland Athletics posing the only true threat.
Oakland seems to be conceding its place in the AL West hierarchy, while the Seattle Mariners added veteran talent and leadership to an exciting young squad.
The addition of reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray adds instant credibility to the Mariners' rotation. The trade for Adam Frazier should also improve their offense, though Seattle could still use a little more pop in the lineup.
Just think of how close the Mariners were to ending the longest active MLB postseason drought last year when they won 90 games and fell just short of a wild-card berth.
Now, each league gets an extra playoff spot. The additions of Ray, Frazier, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez should be enough to send Seattle to its first postseason appearance since 2001.
Disappoint: Los Angeles Angels (83.5)
6 of 10
On paper, there is a lot to love about the Los Angeles Angels. They have the reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani, who could now be allowed to DH through the entirety of the games in which he pitches.
Mike Trout, still the game's best overall player, returns from a season marred by injury, as does Anthony Rendon, who has yet to live up to expectations from his seven-year, $245 million free-agent contract signed two years ago.
The Angels also added Noah Syndergaard, who will look to prove himself after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
There still is not enough pitching here, even with Ohtani and Syndergaard. How many quality starts they have between the two of them is a legitimate question, given how much the Angels need Ohtani on offense and Syndergaard's recent injury history.
The lineup isn't exactly scary beyond Ohtani and Trout, with Rendon's impact still a question mark. Out of teams that could challenge the Houston Astros in the AL West, the Angels are somewhere behind the Seattle Mariners and possibly the Texas Rangers, who just spent over half a billion dollars this offseason to improve their team.
Surprise: Miami Marlins (76.5)
7 of 10
The Miami Marline prioritized offense this offseason, and it's hard to argue with the results. The Marlins traded for Joey Wendle from the Tampa Bay Rays and signed Avisail Garcia before the lockout, then later inked World Series MVP Jorge Soler.
Their rotation is solid, led by Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers and Elieser Hernandez. Miami's bullpen is still a major question, but the bats are there to help improve from the second-lowest OPS and second-fewest runs scored (623) in baseball last year.
Trading for Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pittsburgh Pirates will improve Miami defensively, as the veteran backstop has generated 42 defensive runs saved over the last three years. The Marlins are also relying on the development of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jesus Sanchez to help make the jump offensively.
The NL East is spicy with all the moves made by the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, but don't sleep on Miami as a spoiler.
Disappoint: New York Yankees (91.5)
8 of 10
The Yankees were oddly conservative with their offseason moves, refraining from going after one of the major free-agent shortstops and losing out on the Freddie Freeman sweepstakes.
Meanwhile, other American League teams either got better or were already ascending.
Put the Toronto Blue Jays in the latter category, replacing Robbie Ray with Kevin Gausman, extending Jose Berrios, who they traded for last year, and trading for Matt Chapman from the white flag-waving Oakland Athletics.
The Boston Red Sox added Trevor Story. The Tampa Bay Rays should be as competitive as usual, while the Yankees look a whole lot like the underachievers they were in 2021.
Surprise: Chicago Cubs (75.5)
9 of 10
With the Chicago Cubs having their worst finish in eight years, the expectation is for them to continue through the growing pains they started last season when they traded away the core of their 2016 World Series team.
But they did make a few moves this offseason to give a reason for optimism. Signing Marcus Stroman—who started 33 games last season for the New York Mets and recorded a 3.02 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 158 strikeouts in 179.0 innings—significantly improved Chicago's rotation.
They also signed Japanese standout Seiya Suzuki, who hit .317/.433/.636 with 26 doubles, 38 home runs, 88 RBI, nine steals, 88 walks and 89 strikeouts in the Nippon Professional Baseball last year.
Suzuki steps right into the middle of the Cubs' order as their everyday right fielder. If he's as good as advertised and can adjust to the velocity increase from Japan to MLB, the Cubs are suddenly feisty offensively.
Disappoint: New York Mets (90.5)
10 of 10
Careful not to crown the New York Mets too early. Adding Max Scherzer to a rotation already led by Jacob deGrom should be scary for opposing lineups, especially if the Mets make a postseason run.
But there are legitimate questions about how much they between Scherzer—whose body broke down at the end of last season with the Dodgers—and deGrom, who was limited to 15 starts last year due to injuries.
If healthy, this is the best 1-2 punch you will find, and the Mets should have good rotation depth after trading for Chris Bassitt. Still, it is fair to question how well the bodies will hold up for Scherzer and deGrom.
Meanwhile, Robinson Cano is back from another PED suspension, in perfect time to fill a National League DH role for the Mets. He was pretty good the last time he played, hitting 316/.352/.544 in 2020.
However, it will be interesting to see how well the 39-year-old can swing the bat following a season-long suspension.
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