2022 NFL Free Agents Who Won't Live Up to Their New Contracts

As soon as the NFL's legal tampering period began Monday, free agents began flying off the board.

Among the early notable moves, however, a number of signings stand out in a negative way.

The nature of free agency is paying a hefty price to swipe a player from another team. As well-intentioned as these moves are, several of these signings will backfire. Examples from 2021 include New York Giants wideout Kenny Golladay and Tennessee Titans pass-rusher Bud Dupree.

While the flurry of free agency continues, the following early agreements seem unlikely to offer a great return on investment.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

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We knew something like this was coming. The Arizona Cardinals weren't going to let running backs James Conner and Chase Edmonds leave in free agency.

On Monday, Arizona agreed to a three-year, $21 million deal with Conner, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. After snagging him on a one-year, $1.75 million contract last offseason, the Cardinals had to pony up this time around.

During Conner's first season with the Cardinals, he amassed 1,127 yards from scrimmage and 18 total touchdowns while earning his second career trip to the Pro Bowl. That alone should have been proof of why not to overpay running backs in free agency.

The Cardinals scooped Conner up on a bargain-bin contract last offseason one month after free agency began. They've now quadrupled his annual salary in the hope that he can replicate his career year.

Will Dissly, TE, Seattle Seahawks

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On Monday, the Seattle Seahawks re-signed tight end Will Dissly on a three-year, $24 million contract, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.

Just...why?

Dissly plays a useful role for the Seahawks, but in-line blocking tight ends are not worth $8 million annually. Even if Gerald Everett departs in free agency, Seattle acquired Noah Fant in the Russell Wilson blockbuster.

Dissly has caught 45 passes for 482 yards and three touchdowns in 31 games across the past two seasons. Blocking is important, and Fant doesn't shine in that area, but Dissly hasn't produced enough to justify this contract, particularly as the Seahawks head into a rebuild.

Seattle could've found a suitable replacement for Dissly at a much cheaper rate or in the draft.

Chase Edmonds, RB, Miami Dolphins

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After spending the first four years of his NFL career in Arizona, running back Chase Edmonds agreed to a two-year, $12.6 million deal with the Miami Dolphins on Monday, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Edmonds is a more explosive receiving threat than the Dolphins' other backfield options. He figures to serve as the main pass-catching back in a committee, which new Miami head coach Mike McDaniel utilized over the past few years with the San Francisco 49ers.

However, Edmonds' average of 7.2 yards per catch from last season is right in line with what Niners backs Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr. mustered. They're both replacement-level players at a position known for its dwindling value.

Edmonds now has the 14th-highest AAV among all running backs. He seems like a luxury for a Dolphins roster with several far more pressing needs.

Randy Gregory, DE, Denver Broncos

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After agreeing to a five-year, $70 million extension with the Dallas Cowboys, defensive end Randy Gregory is now receiving that same contract from a different team.

This situation will be a big storyline in the coming days. According to Patrik Walker of CBS Sports HQ, he backed out of a contract when Dallas "doubled back to make change that wasn't palatable to Gregory's camp" and instead joined the Denver Broncos.

Either way, though, Gregory is set to bank a $14 million average salary that doesn't exactly match his production.

Tackles and sacks don't tell a perfect story, but he's only totaled 85 and 16.5, respectively, in his career. Gregory has also dealt with off-field challenges along the way, which together with injuries have limited him to just 50 appearances since 2015.

Such is life in free agency, paying for upside. Still, strictly based on his in-game performance, this is an enormous risk.

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars

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The Jacksonville Jaguars went on a spending spree Monday, agreeing to terms with guard Brandon Scherff, tight end Evan Engram, linebacker Foye Oluokun and defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi, among others. But they saved their biggest splurge of the day for wideout Christian Kirk.

The Jaguars agreed to a four-year, $72 million deal with Kirk that includes $37 million fully guaranteed and can rise to as much as $84 million, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero. That $18 million AAV matches what the Kansas City Chiefs are currently paying two-time All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill.

Over his four years with the Arizona Cardinals, Kirk hauled in 236 passes for 2,902 yards and 17 touchdowns. He had a career-high 77 receptions for 982 yards and five touchdowns last season.

Kirk will bolster the Jaguars' receiving corps, but they're paying him WR1 money. He has plenty to prove before he's earned that label.

Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Christian Kirk wasn't the only wide receiver with whom the Jaguars agreed to terms on Monday. They also snagged former Las Vegas Raiders wideout Zay Jones on a three-year, $24 million deal with a maximum value of $30 million, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.  

The Jaguars already have Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. on their roster, and they just added Kirk on Monday as well. Given that context, Jones seems like an unnecessary splurge.

Last season, Jones caught 47 passes for 546 yards with the Raiders. He's a decent complementary option, but that level of production isn't worth $8 million annually.

Even if Jacksonville trades Shenault, who ESPN's Michael DiRocco reported the Jags are open to moving, they signed Evan Engram, too. Although he's a tight end, Engram is more likely to operate from the slot as he did with the New York Giants.

For a team with a bunch of problem areas, paying this much for a fourth or fifth option was not a good solution.

Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Chicago Bears

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In terms of fit, defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi makes a ton of sense for the Chicago Bears. New head coach Matt Eberflus needs a reliable presence on the interior, and Ogunjobi was exactly that on the Cincinnati Bengals last season.

The problem is that the Bears gave him a three-year, $40.5 million deal, including $26.35 million guaranteed, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. That's a lot to pay for "reliable."

During his lone season in Cincinnati, Ogunjobi had 49 tackles with a career-high seven sacks, 12 tackles for loss and 16 quarterback hits. He'll need to replicate that performance throughout his three-year contract to live up to the price.

Ogunjobi should be a key contributor for Chicago, and overpays are often the cost of doing business in free agency. However, he'll have a tough time returning positive value on that deal.

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

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The Pittsburgh Steelers needed to find a new quarterback this offseason after Ben Roethlisberger announced his retirement in January.

For now, they appear to have settled on Mitchell Trubisky.

The Steelers came to terms with him on a two-year, $14.25 million deal that could be worth as much as $27 million, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. He's heading to Pittsburgh "as the expected starter," according to NFL Network's Mike Garofolo.

In 2021, Trubisky spent the season backing up Josh Allen on the Buffalo Bills and went 6-of-8 for 43 yards and an interception. Somehow, despite that limited playing time, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported Trubisky's "career reset in Buffalo went very well."

Trubisky started 50 games with the Chicago Bears, so he could be a stopgap for the Steelers as they look for a long-term Roethlisberger replacement. But if he winds up losing the starting job this season, $7 million is a hefty price tag for a backup quarterback.