The Most Overrated 2022 NFL Free Agents Available

Free agency is a double-edged sword for NFL teams. While some executives aim to bolster the roster with an established talent, a name sometimes means more than the player.

Yes, the dreaded "overrated" season has arrived.

Let's be perfectly clear: Considering a player overrated is not deeming them ineffective or suggesting he should not be signed in free agency. The target here is identifying free agents whose perceived value is greater than our expectations.

As a result, the list is inherently subjective while taking both projected salary and anticipated role into account.

Trent Brown, OT

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Terron Armstead is likely the highest-valued offensive tackle on the market, but Trent Brown should have plenty of suitors.

Confidence level may be low outside of Foxborough, though.

Entering his eighth NFL season, Brown has enjoyed two respectable one-year stints on the New England Patriots. However, he wound up returning to the Pats because he struggled after receiving a massive payday with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders in 2019. Brown has also missed 24 games over the last three seasons combined.

At this point, it's fair to believe that New England is simply the best possible spot for Brown. He performs well with the Pats, and they're patient with his injury history.

Anyone else? Well, that's an expensive risk to take.

James Conner, RB

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This isn't a scathing criticism of James Conner.

In 2021, the former Pittsburgh Steelers star had a terrific year for the Arizona Cardinals. He rushed for 752 yards and caught 37 passes for 375 yards, scoring 18 total touchdowns and returning to the Pro Bowl for the first time since his breakout 2018 campaign.

But how many pieces of evidence do NFL execs need? Conner himself is a prime example of why running backs are replaceable.

Arizona added him on a one-year, $1.8 million pact last offseason, yet he vastly outperformed the cost.

From a player-focused perspective, hopefully he receives a decent raise compared to his 2021 salary. Contending teams should look for more budget-friendly options.

Evan Engram, TE

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On paper, Evan Engram is an appealing player. He's an impressive athlete and fits the "matchup nightmare" label of hybrid tight ends who could be split out as a receiver.

So far, though, his production hasn't matched that.

Yes, part of that can be attributed to lackluster quarterback play throughout Engram's five seasons on the New York Giants. Nevertheless, his rookie year—64 receptions, 722 yards and six touchdowns in 2017—remains his most prolific campaign.

Michael Rosenstein of NJ.com reported Engram may land an annual salary of $7 million-10 million. That price is largely based on the 27-year-old's upside instead of recent production.

Stephon Gilmore, CB

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This is probably Stephon Gilmore's final opportunity to sign a big-dollar contract. According to Jeff Howe of The Athletic, the veteran cornerback has a possible range of $10-14 million per season.

Go get that money. Also, that's a lot of money.

Gilmore is a good player entering the market at an opportune time. Because of his recovery from a quad injury, Gilmore appeared in nine games last season. Yet he performed well, snagging two interceptions and being named a Pro Bowl alternate after his trade from New England to the Carolina Panthers.

For that price, however, teams should be targeting a foundational piece. Gilmore, who turns 32 in September, has the delicate balance of a strong past and a not-so-distant expected decline.

Christian Kirk, WR

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Based on recent free-agent contracts for Corey Davis and Curtis Samuel, Christian Kirk is worthy of the $12-plus million annually that ESPN's Dan Graziano reported is a possibility. Kirk's production in Arizona is beyond what Davis or Samuel had accomplished.

But can Kirk be a team's second-best receiver?

Sure, he paced Arizona with 77 catches and 982 yards last season. That happened largely because DeAndre Hopkins missed seven games. Also, the Cardinals exited the playoffs with a miserable night that reiterated a need to bolster the receiving corps.

Kirk has proved to be a solid complement, averaging 59 receptions, 725.5 yards and 4.3 touchdowns in four NFL seasons. An eight-figure salary may level outsized expectations on Kirk, though.

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB

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One factor is positional value, which we covered when talking about Conner and won't relitigate here. Another aspect is the undeniable risk of buying high on Cordarrelle Patterson.

Although he's a six-time All-Pro in nine seasons, each one was a product of his contributions as a kick returner. It wasn't until 2021 that Patterson joined the Atlanta Falcons and shed the "first-round bust" label, becoming a key piece of their offense. He collected 1,166 yards from scrimmage—more than his last three seasons combined—and scored 11 total touchdowns.

Now, a payday awaits, and it's not a great class of running backs, either. This is an optimal time for Patterson in free agency.

Seeing him sign for $10-plus million wouldn't be a surprise, but that's a hefty cost for someone with one productive year.

Allen Robinson II, WR

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This, too, should not be confused as a judgment that Allen Robinson II won't be productive. The dumpster fire that was the Chicago Bears played a considerable part in his career-worst season.

Similar to Patterson, though, the free-agent market may be a little extra friendly for Robinson.

As expected, the Green Bay Packers used the franchise tag on star receiver Davante Adams, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did the same to keep Chris Godwin. Mike Williams inked an extension with the Los Angeles Chargers. Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Gallup are recovering from serious knee injuries, too.

Robinson is suddenly the most established, healthy wideout on the market. His impending deal could be close to the four-year, $72 million pact Kenny Golladay signed with the Giants last offseason.

Among the players analyzed here, Robinson seems to have the greatest chance to make his inclusion look foolish. He's never had anything close to an elite quarterback in eight years.

Still, interested teams will be placing an expensive bet on Robinson returning to previous form.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR

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According to Tom Pelissero of NFL.com, Marquez Valdes-Scantling may land a contract "well north of $10 million" per year.

That was, uh—it was surprising.

Through four seasons, the South Florida product has tallied 123 receptions for 2,153 yards and 13 scores. Valdes-Scantling has become a favorite of Aaron Rodgers, which may prove significant as the Green Bay legend returns to the Packers in 2022.

However, their on-field connection remains a work in progress. MVS has an unimpressive career 49.8 percent catch rate, and he managed just a 47.3 clip in 2021.

So far, the speedy wideout has provided a downfield threat on paper more than in reality. That's an awfully dangerous eight-figure gamble in free agency.