Bold 2022 NBA Trade Deadline Predictions with One Week Remaining
The relentless churn of the NBA rumor mill can make it feel like everything's on the table.
By now, exactly one week shy of the Feb. 10 trade deadline, you've seen dozens and dozens of speculative trades based on whispers, leaks and unnamed sources. With so much noise, it can be difficult to tell the difference between possible and plausible.
That makes this the perfect time for bold predictions.
We'll include justification for all of these brave/foolhardy forecasts, lending them logical underpinning to the extent possible. Some will still feel flimsy, but that's kind of the idea.
All of these theoretically could prove correct. Realistically, one or two coming true would be a great result. If the success rate were any higher than that, how bold would the predictions really be?
The Pacers Will Really Blow It Up
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The Indiana Pacers' recent history says that wagering on a teardown is a losing bet. They have exactly one 50-loss season since 1989 and have finished .500 or better in 23 of the 32 seasons after that cutoff.
So, predicting they'll follow through on what The Athletic's Shams Charania and Bob Kravitz reported in December was a move "toward a substantial rebuild" feels sufficiently bold.
It's even bolder in light of governor Herb Simon's comments to reporters a little over a week after the Charania and Kravitz report: "I don't want to see (a rebuild). If I don't want to see it, the fans don't want to see it. Why would we want to go through a rebuild when we can build on the go?"
This year's deadline may seem to lack top-end talent, but it should favor sellers. All but a handful of teams are within striking distance of the play-in tournament, so an organization in possession of several market-rate-or-below contracts like Indiana should have no shortage of suitors looking for talent upgrades.
Myles Turner's foot injury may remove him from the trade block until the offseason, but there's really no reason for the Pacers to hold onto Domantas Sabonis, Caris LeVert, or the expiring contracts of T.J. Warren and Jeremy Lamb unless they want to keep fielding a team with a non-contending ceiling. That's been the organizational M.O. for longer than the lifespan of many people reading this, but we're predicting that the plan will finally change.
Indy has to look with some level of envy at the way comparable small-market operations in Memphis, Cleveland and Minnesota have constructed themselves principally through the draft. All of those organizations have brighter futures and presents than the Pacers, and all of them leaned into a youth-driven rebuild at some point in the recent past.
It'd be off-brand, and every fiber of the "never tank" ethos in Indiana will be strained. But it's time. The Pacers are due for a thorough refresh.
The Sixers Will Trade Ben Simmons to the Sacramento Kings
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Last Friday, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported the Sacramento Kings "ended their pursuit of a deal" with the Philadelphia 76ers for Ben Simmons, to which this prediction replies: Nope!
It's full-on smokescreen and deliberate leak season, and on top of that, consider the logic behind Sacramento walking away from the table this close to the deadline. Sure, it's possible the Kings are serious. But it isn't exactly the newest negotiation tactic to feign disinterest to drive the seller's asking price down.
If the Kings tried to reopen discussions (if they ever really closed), does anyone think that the Sixers would shut them down in accord with the "no take-backs" rule? Of course not.
A potential deal can't be dead, not with so many factors that justify keeping it alive.
Start on the Sixers' side, with the urgency to capitalize on Joel Embiid's MVP push. Team president Daryl Morey's insistence on trading Simmons only if it significantly improves the team's title odds makes sense, but history suggests you only get a season like this from a big man a few times per century. Even if there might be a better return available later, Embiid is this good now. Even without considering his injury history, the sheer rarity of what Embiid is doing indicates he isn't likely to keep doing it forever. Nobody has.
The Kings don't face the same kind of pressure as the Sixers do, but they should still feel strongly compelled to act. De'Aaron Fox is the team's most promising talent, and he already has the max contract to prove it. But he's in the midst of a down year and has nothing close to Simmons' career resume.
The Sixers' sidelined star has made three All-Star teams to Fox's zero and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season. Even more illustrative of the gap in value, Simmons' VORP (value over replacement player) is nearly triple Fox's cumulative total, despite the Kings guard having played 31 more career games and almost 400 more career minutes.
Sacramento needs a shakeup as much as any team in the league and has Fox to headline a package for Simmons, who's just sitting there on the market. By the deadline, these two should come together.
The Spurs Will Trade Derrick White for Multiple 1st-Round Picks
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It's extremely rare for the San Antonio Spurs to make an in-season trade of consequence, but they've already broken the seal by sending Bryn Forbes to the Denver Nuggets. Why not continue the atypical behavior with another deal?
The pool of available wings is shallow, and it's headlined by 33-year-old Eric Gordon. Several teams that might seek help at the position—the Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks in particular—are led by stars in their early 20s. They should target players who'll be around for a longer haul.
Gordon, who is at the end of his prime, is a clear rental whose $19.6 million salary in 2022-23 could turn ugly in the event of age-related decline or injury.
White is locked into a four-year, $70 million contract that will end in 2024-25, his age-30 season. That's more along the lines of what a younger wing-seeking team should be after.
Don't worry about White's current 30.6 percent hit rate on threes. He's been better than that in every other season of his career and has shot over 85 percent from the foul line in each of the last three years. There's nothing wrong with his stroke. Besides, he's a two-way threat with dramatically improved playmaking numbers in 2021-22, highlighted by career-high 5.7 assists per game.
Gordon will surely be on the move, and whichever team gets him will be better for it. But White is the guy who could make a difference for this season and several more afterward—all without breaking the bank.
Any organization looking to win this year and beyond should prioritize him, and a bidding war will erupt.
The Thunder Will Acquire 3 More 1st-Round Picks
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You don't have to crawl out onto a limb when predicting the Oklahoma City Thunder, the pick-hoarding operators of Salary Dump, Inc., will target first-round selections at the deadline. When you already have 12 additional incoming firsts from previous trades, it's pretty clear you have a type.
It's the specificity that makes this bold, coupled with the fact that no player whom OKC would consider moving has enough value to return a future first. There's an outside chance Kenrich Williams or Lu Dort could prove that assertion wrong, but it's hard to imagine the former bringing back more than a few second-rounders, and the latter may not be available at all. Derrick Favors and Mike Muscala? No way.
What OKC does have is more cap space than any other team and a willingness to fill it with contracts that other teams don't want.
If the New York Knicks want off of Julius Randle or Evan Fournier's deals, the Thunder will be waiting, happy to take on a first-rounder or two as the fee for contract disposal. If the Sixers are serious about pursuing James Harden in free agency and need to wipe Tobias Harris from their books, well...Oklahoma City has taken on worse salaries in the past.
You might think 12 extra picks is enough, and most of the league's least team-friendly contracts (Kevin Love, John Wall, Russell Westbrook) might not move at all. But where there's a will, there's a way.
OKC will figure out how to deal someone on its roster for a first and then somehow grab two more attached to unwanted contracts. It's what the Thunder do.
The Celtics Will Trade Marcus Smart to the Atlanta Hawks
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The Boston Celtics have the fifth-best net rating in the East and have been better on D than anyone else over the last two weeks. With their fortunes turning and parity in the East making a move up the standings look relatively easy, now might not seem like the time for the Celtics to cut ties with one of their most important players.
Screw it. Marcus Smart is getting traded anyway.
According to B/R's Jake Fischer, Boston discussed a deal that would have included Smart going to the Atlanta Hawks for Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter, but Reddish is in New York now. That doesn't preclude the two teams from re-engaging on another swap.
Smart makes all the sense in the world in Atlanta, where the Hawks need a tough defender to a) keep Trae Young from getting cooked by quality offensive threats and b) turn around a culture that seems to have given up on that end. With Smart around diving for loose balls and throwing his body into traffic, it'll be a lot harder for the rest of the Hawks to get away with anything less than maximum commitment.
He and a healthy De'Andre Hunter could push Atlanta above the league average on D. That would be no small feat for a squad that has spent most of this season in the bottom five on that end.
John Collins seems unhappy with his role again (and therefore possibly available), and Atlanta could take on additional money Boston doesn't want to get the deal done. Throw Josh Richardson into this trade, and Boston would get the $2.8 million in salary relief it needs to duck the luxury tax.
Collins was a major force in Atlanta's surge to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, and Smart has factored into three playoff runs of that depth in Boston. Yet both may have reached the end of the line with their respective teams.
While Atlanta gets the specific skill set it needs, the Celtics add the younger, brighter star.
The Knicks Will Practice Patience
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With a play-in berth looking increasingly unlikely, Julius Randle turning back into a pumpkin, a defense (predictably) failing to match last season's luck-fueled success and several recent acquisitions underperforming, the New York Knicks are in prime panic territory.
But with restraint and big-picture thinking that would have seemed impossible prior to the Leon Rose era, they'll resist the urge to hit this roster with a wrecking ball.
That's right. The Knicks are going to play it cool.
No desperate Russell Westbrook acquisition. No long-shot plays for John Wall. No reaction to the heat building under Tom Thibodeau's seat. No capricious pivot from one plan to the next.
The deadline isn't the only time to make changes, even if all the chatter and speculation leading up to it can create that false impression. If New York wants to move Randle, Kemba Walker or Evan Fournier, it can do that over the summer when finances around the league clarify and the number of suitors theoretically increases.
To do anything of significance now might require New York to give up some of its younger and more promising pieces as sweeteners. Or worse, it could mean taking back bad contracts or giving up picks to entice takers for Randle and others.
Predictions of prudence have rarely paid off when it comes to the Knicks. This time, things will be different.
Jerami Grant Goes Nowhere
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We end with the prediction least likely to prove correct, the one that blurs the line between bold and delusional.
But hear me out.
For weeks now, Jerami Grant has been among the most obvious potential movers. He plays for a Detroit Pistons team that is at the absolute foundational stage of its rebuild, and Grant's skill set fits perfectly on a number of contenders. Multi-position defense, reliable catch-and-shoot accuracy and recently developed self-sufficient scoring plays anywhere.
Problem: Many of the contenders that most need Grant's services—the Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks, to name three—don't have the assets to impress Detroit with an offer.
Additional problem: Grant signed with the Pistons in part because he wanted to leave behind the supporting role he'd played for his entire career. Detroit doesn't have to get sign-off from Grant to deal him, but you'd think it would at least consider his opinion if there were a handful of comparable options. All signs suggest Grant isn't interested in playing a bit part again.
Note, too, that any team acquiring Grant has to be prepared (or, more realistically, already agreed through back channels) to give him a raise on the $20.1 million he's set to make in 2022-23 ahead of unrestricted free agency. Otherwise, we're talking about a potentially unhappy rental situation that could dramatically suppress the quality of the offers coming in.
Finally, any team trading for Grant has to contend with the fact that he missed 24 straight games prior to returning on Feb. 1. That won't leave interested parties much time to judge where he's at physically ahead of the deadline.
On its face, the Grant situation seems like it has to resolve itself in a deadline trade. But the Pistons could find themselves presented with some weaker-than-expected packages. Considering their bottom-dwelling status, they can afford to be patient for a few more months if nobody bowls them over.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Feb. 2. Salary info via Spotrac.
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