Grading 2021 NBA Draft Lottery Picks So Far This Season
We've seen a handful of rookies already outproduce their draft slot. Some have even been convincing enough to call steals after just 15 professional games.
However, NBA lottery picks have higher expectations than other rookies, and most have been playing regular roles right away. So, we graded the 10 rookies who've logged over 100 minutes, taking into account their efficiency, production and overall impact.
Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons, SG)
1 of 10
Cade Cunningham's production and flash plays outweigh the inefficient start. Makeable shots aren't falling. He's still averaging 14.1 points and 4.6 assists, coming off his first triple-double in his 11th career game.
His pacing and passing continue to stand out. He looks poised running offense, and his playmaking recognition in ball-screen situations has carried over from high school and college.
He's only shooting 24.1 percent on pull-ups and 25.3 percent from three, but he's hitting 1.9 threes per game and 90.9 percent of his free throws. His shooting numbers are bound to improve.
There have been instances where he struggles to create separation, or he underestimates the length and speed of his defender. Lacking explosiveness doesn't help him earn more uncontested looks.
Defensively, we've seen mixed results, with his high IQ and disruptive tools on display, and his vulnerability containing quicker guards evident.
Overall, it's worth looking past his 35.0 percent field-goal mark, especially given the late start (ankle injury), poor-shooting teammates (No. 30 in three-point percentage) and small sample size of games. He'll look more like the consensus No. 1 overall pick once his jumper starts connecting. After a rough few games to begin his career, he's getting more comfortable making plays and reads.
Grade: B
Jalen Green (Houston Rockets, SG)
2 of 10
Averaging 14.5 points, Jalen Green is delivering routine highlights of his signature athletic ability, shot-creation potential and shot-making skills. He's been streaky early, which was to be expected based on his shot selection and the Houston Rockets not having a legitimate starting point guard to set the table.
Green does have a 30-point game on his resume against the Boston Celtics. And he's currently in the midst of his most efficient four-game stretch of the season, averaging 16.0 points on 44.2 percent shooting since November 14.
Averaging 6.8 three-point attempts to 3.1 free-throw attempts on the season, he is prone to settling. But he is also making 1.9 threes per game, showing confidence off the catch and dribble. And when he does unleash that lightning first step and explosion off hesitation, he's flashed decent touch on his lay-up package.
As a playmaker, he's delivered some impressive passes, though he can still be too casual with his decision-making (48 turnovers, 41 assists). The Rockets are scoring 15.5 more points per 100 possessions when he's off the floor. Meanwhile, they're allowing 14.8 more points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. He has not looked advanced defensively in terms of making reads.
Overall, high-usage scorers typically need time adjusting when thrown into an NBA offense that doesn't revolve around them. That's been the case for Green. Still, none of his lowlights or percentages should indicate major cause for concern over his long-term upside.
Grade: B-
Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers, PF/C)
3 of 10
Before a recent elbow injury, Evan Mobley had emerged as a favorite for Rookie of the Year and a possible new No. 1 pick of a 2022 re-draft.
He quickly squashed concerns about a lack of strength by thriving at forward instead of center. He's succeeding with skill, touch and mobility to compensate for a slender, 210-pound frame.
In Cleveland, he's pulling off the same flash plays ball-handling, pull-up shooting (45.8 percent), floaters and drives past closeouts we saw at USC. With fluid, turnaround shot-making ability around the key, he's shooting 60.0 percent in the post, where he's also delivered some high-level passes. And despite the 30.8 three-point mark, his eight made threes this early should be seen as a plus.
He's also converting in the restricted area at a 73.6 percent clip. A quick jump and 7'4" wingspan make Mobley an enormous finishing target/weapon.
With 15 steals and 24 blocks in 15 games, his defensive playmaking, court coverage and overall IQ have been outstanding. The fact that he can comfortably guard 4s (at 7'0") next to Jarrett Allen elevates the Cleveland Cavaliers' defensive ceiling.
Grade: A+
Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors, PF)
4 of 10
One of the early surprises among rookies has been the scoring of Scottie Barnes. A limited self-creator and shooter, known more for defense at Florida State, the No. 4 pick is averaging 14.6 points through 16 games.
Shooting 48.0 percent from the floor, he's finding ways to create and convert opportunities by using his ball-handling in space and strength/length around the basket. His offense typically comes within the game's flow. He's even making 1.1 pull-ups per game and 72.0 percent of his free throws after shooting just 4-of-19 off the dribble and 62.1 percent from the line last season.
His vision, height for passing and team-first mentality continue to translate to point-forward playmaking, with Barnes tallying at least four assists in eight of the Toronto Raptors' last nine games.
But he's also given the Raptors and disruptive defensive weapon who can pick up full court, guard multiple positions and inject contagious passion/energy into a lineup.
Grade: A
Jalen Suggs (Orlando Magic, PG/SG)
5 of 10
A rocky start for Jalen Suggs has highlighted obvious areas of improvement, though he's coming off one of best weeks as a pro.
Still, the No. 5 pick is shooting just 32.7 percent, the lowest in the league among players who attempt at least 10 shots per game.
He's really struggled on touch shots for finishing around the key (21.1 percent FG in paint, non-restricted area).
Though he's only making 21.1 percent of his pull-ups, the fact that he graded in the 92nd percentile last year shooting off the dribble suggests this could just be a fluky-bad start in Orlando. Recently, he's showing more signs of shooting confidence, having made 9-of-20 threes over Orlando's last three games.
Otherwise, he's flashed good feel as a playmaker in ball-screen situations in terms of changing pace to set up roll men and shooters. And his defensive activity has been a plus, with Suggs' aggression, speed and strength leading to turnovers and plays on the ball.
Grade: C+
Josh Giddey (Oklahoma City Thunder, PG/SG)
6 of 10
Not turning 20 years old until October, Josh Giddey is one of 19 NBA players averaging at least 10 points, five rebounds and five assists.
It was safe to assume he'd have trouble scoring early at the NBA level, given his lack of burst and a suspect track record as a shooter. His passing was always the better bet to translate, and it has. Even without quickness or too much wiggle, Giddey has successfully used height, vision, basketball IQ and sound, simple decision-making to set up teammates.
And now he's notched three consecutive games of at least 14 points. Giddey hit four three-pointers against the Boston Celtics on Saturday. Even though he's only at 27.8 percent from deep on the season, he's at least attempting 3.4 threes per game, showing an encouraging amount of confidence.
Getting to the basket has been a challenge for Giddey (1.2 free-throw attempts in 29.3 minutes per game), who's also shooting an ugly 42.7 percent inside 10 feet. Regardless, his value on the floor revolves around facilitating, and so far, it's lived up to the hype.
Grade: B+
Franz Wagner (Michigan, SF, Sophomore)
7 of 10
It seemed like the Orlando Magic would have to bring Franz Wagner along slowly after preseason. But he's run away with the starting job, providing a reliable mix of off-ball scoring and defense.
Shooting 37.5 percent from three, his comfort level from NBA range has been a notable development, considering Wagner is making more triples at a higher clip than he did in college.
He's averaging 13.2 points despite still being a limited shot-creator. Wagner grades in the 74th percentile as a spot-up player, as he's found success using his 6'10" size and long strides for driving and cutting.
Guarding wings, getting through ball screens and showing a good feel playing help defense, Wagner has been an impact two-way player in a lower-usage role.
Grade: A
Davion Mitchell (Sacramento Kings, PG/SG)
8 of 10
Though Davion Mitchell's reputation as a tough defender has held up, his offense has been slower to translate.
One of the big fears with Mitchell out of Baylor concerned the legitimacy of his out-of-nowhere shooting improvement, considering he'd never shot over 68.0 percent from the free-throw line in three NCAA seasons. So far, he's struggled around the perimeter, shooting 28.2 percent from three, 30.1 percent on pull-ups and 21.9 percent off the catch.
He's been a more reliable playmaker than scorer. Mitchell has shown promising setup ability on his 3.8 assists per game, using his elusiveness to create for others more than himself. Despite special burst, he's only taken 17 free throws in 17 games, a stat that lines up with last year's 2.6 attempts per 40 minutes rate.
Unsurprisingly, defense has been Mitchell's above-average contribution. His early highlight tape includes sequences of hounding pressure, and he's spent time guarding both backcourt positions. Opponents are scoring 11.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor.
Grade: B
Ziaire Williams (Memphis Grizzlies, SG/SF)
9 of 10
The Memphis Grizzlies have given Ziaire Williams an opportunity to play through mistakes. And there have been plenty made at both ends.
The rookie is shooting just 33.3 percent, unable to find a rhythm from behind the arc where 56 of his 81 shots have come. He's looked smoother off the catch from the corners and wings (30.6 percent catch-and-shoot 3PT).
Lacking burst to blow by and explosion/strength for finishing, Williams hasn't earned himself many easy-basket opportunities (two free-throw attempts all season). He'll need a pull-up game, which hasn't worked in limited action (16.7 percent).
Williams should have always been viewed as a longer-term project after he shot 37.4 percent from the floor at Stanford. The early reps should be helpful, but he'll have to start making more shots to justify playing 18.1 minutes on a team gunning for the playoffs.
Grade: D
Chris Duarte (Indiana Pacers, SG)
10 of 10
Though Chris Duarte's scoring production has fallen over the past few weeks, he has still added consistent shot-making to the Pacers lineup.
He's started in 15-of-16 games, converting at least two threes 10 times. Physically ready and highly skilled, Duarte has given off veteran vibes, demonstrating obvious polish in terms of offensive execution and reading the game.
Shooting 39.2 percent from behind the arc, he's making 42.0 percent of his looks off the catch and 1.9 shots per game off the dribble. On the downside, he does settle too often, averaging 5.3 pull-up attempts and 1.1 free-throw attempts. Some of that has to do with a lack of explosiveness to beat defenders.
But his jump shot allows him to get away with it. And he's finding other ways to score with crafty dribble moves and improvisation.
Grade: A
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, NBA.com.
