Are the New England Patriots the NFL's Best Super Bowl Dark Horse?

The New England Patriots have quietly emerged as a dark-horse Super Bowl contender.

The Pats got off to a rocky 1-3 start, but they have won three in a row and four of their last five games. New England's 5-4 record has the club well positioned to overtake the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills, who fell to 5-3 with an embarrassing 9-6 defeat to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

Buffalo's loss has left the door wide-open for the Patriots to usurp the reigning divisional champions.

The road won't be easy—the Bills still have the second-best odds to win Super Bowl 56, per DraftKings, while the Pats' odds remain longer than 30-1—but New England has a clear path to not only claim the AFC East crown but also win it all this year.

The Pats have become one of the league's most intriguing contenders with Mac Jones under center. The quarterback has found his footing as a confident game manager who has displayed uncanny poise for a 23-year-old rookie.

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

While Jones isn't putting up huge numbers, he's taking care of the football and putting his team in position to win. The Alabama product ranks in the top 10 for accuracy, completing 68 percent of his passes.

Jones struggled with turnovers and took some bad sacks early but has improved significantly in the last month.

Over the last four games, he has tossed five touchdowns against two interceptions and taken six sacks. It's a marked improvement after the signal-caller was sacked 11 times and threw as many interceptions as touchdowns (five) in his first five starts.

Jakobi Meyers has taken a step forward in 2021 while emerging as one of Jones' most reliable receivers. The third-year wideout has caught 46 of 72 targets for 434 yards, putting him on pace to surpass his career highs of 59 receptions for 729 yards set last season. 

Kendrick Bourne has also been a boon for the Pats. While the 26-year-old hasn't seen a ton of volume, he's made the most of his looks, securing 29 of 39 targets for 422 yards and two touchdowns.

Jones may have established his strongest rapport with Hunter Henry.

New England brought in the tight end as a free agent to bolster a position that provided the Pats with a paltry 18 receptions for 254 yards and one touchdown last season. Henry already has 27 catches for 316 yards and five touchdowns.

The New England running back platoon has taken several injuries in stride while remaining a steady source of production, averaging over 100 yards per game. It's accomplished this despite losing James White, the team's top pass-catching back, for the season with a hip injury.

Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have both been banged up as well, but Brandon Bolden—mostly a special teams contributor during his nine NFL seasons—has performed admirably when needed. The 31-year-old has rushed 22 times for 108 yards and caught 22 of 24 targets for 189 yards and a score.

New England has made strides on the defensive end as well.

After being hit hard by opt-outs and injuries last year, the team restocked the cupboard and has rebounded well. The Patriots rank in the top 10 in total defense and are top-five in both scoring defense—allowing 18.9 points per game—and takeaways after securing 16 through nine games.

The team has accomplished this despite trading 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. The Pats sent the cornerback to the Carolina Panthers for a sixth-round pick last month.

New England clearly felt comfortable with its cornerback room, headlined by ball hawk J.C. Jackson. Jackson has followed up last year's breakout nine-interception campaign with five more picks, including his first pick-six.

The team also brought back Jamie Collins, the veteran linebacker who played well for the Pats in the past. He may not be stuffing the stat sheet—seven tackles, one interception and one sack in five games—but he is having an impact on this group.

Stew Milne/Associated Press

The 32-year-old has earned a 72.2 grade from Pro Football Focus—starter-caliber football—while drawing praise from head coach Bill Belichick.

"He's really contributing a lot of different ways," Belichick told reporters Monday. "Setting a good edge, playing off the ball, on the ball, special teams, rushing the passer, playing in coverage, so he's helped us in a lot of different ways."

Collins is augmenting one of the game's best pass-rushers in prized offseason acquisition Matt Judon.

The former Baltimore Raven has been a revelation for New England, racking up nine sacks, tied for third-most in the league.

Judon and the revamped Patriots pass rush are up to 19 sacks, adding an edge the defense lacked in 2020. Only five teams had fewer than New England's 24 sacks last year.

With a more complete team, the Patriots are poised to finish the year strong and make a playoff push.

They have a relatively easy road over the final eight weeks, even if their strength of schedule is the league's 15th-most difficult since their opponents own a collective .500 record.

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

The team has winnable games against the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins.

New England's remaining three opponents are all above .500, but one is a 7-2 Tennessee Titans team that lacks the heart of its offense following Derrick Henry's foot injury.

While the Titans came up with a big win in Los Angeles against the Rams, it took a herculean defensive effort—Tennessee must sustain these performances to remain a contender—and an uncharacteristic pair of interceptions from quarterback Matthew Stafford to seal the victory.  

The other is the up-and-down Cleveland Browns, a 5-4 squad reliant on its run game even before losing one of its top receivers in Odell Beckham Jr.

That leaves two matchups with the Bills in Weeks 13 and 16 that are likely to determine the division.

If New England can draw and Buffalo stumbles down the stretch—the Bills have matchups against the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers—the Pats have a shot at claiming their 12th AFC East title in 13 years.

Earning home-field advantage in the Wild Card Round would help New England immensely. A playoff win in Foxborough could give the team the momentum it needs to mount a Super Bowl run.

Considering how flawed the AFC's top teams are, anything could happen come January. 

The Ravens are atop the AFC North but have yet to find much success in the playoffs during the Lamar Jackson era. The Kansas City Chiefs are still favored to emerge from the wide-open AFC West, but their offense looks like a shell of the one that carried the club to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. 

If the Pats do reach the Super Bowl, the Buccaneers are the favorite to meet them.

After proving it could keep a game against Tampa close in an epic Week 4 matchup that went down to the wire, a more experienced New England team would be itching for another chance to topple former quarterback Tom Brady and the defending champs. 

At its current odds, New England may be the best value bet to emerge from this chaotic campaign with the Lombardi Trophy.

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