Best 2021-22 Sleeper Bets for Every Major NBA Award
Calling all NBA bettors who make it their mission to hunt for bargains and/or step out on potentially lucrative, albeit possibly flimsy, limbs: We have some sleeper awards picks for you.
These selections are not based on how the results should pan out. Many of these players are already and will remain mainstays in their respective categories. They are here instead because their odds of picking up the hardware, as listed at FanDuel, remain wildly undervalued and, therefore, extremely tantalizing.
This exercise will cover the six year-end accolades that have lines on which to wager: Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and MVP. Candidates for Executive of the Year have my condolences.
Anyone laying 30-1 odds or better is automatically excluded from consideration. Coach of the Year is the lone exception. There are, after all, only 30 head honchos from which to choose. The cutoff will be lowered to 15-1 for that award.
And finally, these sleeper picks are not the only dark-horse investments worth a look. They are the best bets that seek to juggle their potential return with the likelihood they actually take home their year-end honor. Utah Jazz fans are encouraged to remember this when they don't see Rudy Gobert (+10000) get the MVP nod.
Coach of the Year: Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves (+1600)
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Coach of the Year is a race without a true dark horse. Sure, certain names are far less likely to follow the usual formula—steering a great team to a spectacular record—but the list of candidates with an authentic case always spills into the double digits.
Knowing as much, it's best to focus on a clipboard-carrier overseeing a team that wasn't supposed to be good yet has a puncher's chance at potentially being somewhat good. Enter Chris Finch, head honcho of the Minnesota Timberwolves, whose odds are current as of Sunday.
Most didn't expect this squad to make a real playoff push. Poll fans and analysts alike, and many would still bet against it. But FanDuel has Minnesota's odds to make the playoffs set at -205 (bet $205 to win $100)—appreciably worse than even money. That's a big deal.
So, too, is the Timberwolves defense. They are second in points allowed per possession. To what end that's luck is a matter of course. They are 30th in defensive rebounding rate, and opponents won't shoot under 60 percent at the rim and sub-28 percent from beyond the arc until the end of time.
Still, Anthony Edwards is visibly better, both on and away from the ball. And the defense has not yet taken a huge hit by yanking Josh Okogie from the starting five for Jarred Vanderbilt. This roster might have the tools, personnel and depth to maintain a league-average-or-much-better standing.
That would go a long way toward bolstering Finch's Coach of the Year credentials. The Timberwolves' offensive warts to this point only help. They'll hit more of their jumpers specifically; they're at 31.2 percent from mid-range and 27.9 percent on corner threes. Patrick Beverley (44.4 percent) and Karl-Anthony Towns (50 percent) are the only everyday rotation players performing up to snuff from distance.
Bargain hunters will run into the issue of Minnesota's ceiling. It will not rank among the Western Conference's foremost contenders. But in the absence of entering the title hunt, the shock-and-awe effect works comparably well. Finishing in the top six, above play-in territory, should be enough to get Finch mentioned in the same breath as the Erik Spoelstras (+900) and Quin Snyders (+1000) of the world.
Rookie of the Year: Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic (+4500)
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Imagine someone telling you Franz Wagner would rank among the three to five most impactful rookies seven games or so into the season after watching him in Las Vegas Summer League. You'd have done a double-take or quintuple-take or fainted.
And yet here we are.
Wagner is averaging 13.9 points and 1.9 assists while downing 53.2 percent of his twos and 43.8 percent of his threes and just generally looking like a completely polished offensive product. Stretching the defense is his bread and butter, and he's feasting. He knows how to navigate the half-court away from the ball and can set up in the corner or plant himself in super-deep range straightaway from the basket. He's currently drilling 46 percent of his above-the-break triples.
Though not (yet) the type to launch jumpers off the bounce, Wagner has shown the bandwidth to attack. He is fairly comfortable traversing traffic with either hand—he doesn't like finishing with the left—and has the capacity to vary direction and speed. There is more eff-you to his drives, as well. He can use his shoulder to displace defenders and create extra glints of room. His 51.6 percent clip on downhill attacks includes a neat-o floater.
Without a premier on-ball role, Wagner's best crack at winning Rookie of the Year lies with his consistency. Some of the other main contenders, such as Scottie Barnes (+340) and Evan Mobley (+410), could fall off in time. Wagner's production should prove sustainable amid modest usage, and he'll get a not-insignificant nudge from a handful of voters if he keeps holding up on defense at the 3.
Most Improved Player: Desmond Bane (+5000)
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Viable Most Improved Player candidates can be found every which way you look. Ja Morant (+350), Miles Bridges (+600) and Tyler Herro (+1200) lead the field and are followed closely by Dejounte Murray (+1600), Anthony Edwards (+1900) and OG Anunoby (+2100).
Defaulting to any second-year guy counts as traveling against the grain. Most Improved Player normally goes to someone with a larger sample under their belts who has made the "Superstar Turn."
Every so often, though, a sophomore wedges his way into the meat and potatoes of the discussion. De'Aaron Fox did it in 2018-19. Zion Williamson did it last year. Edwards is kind of doing it this year, though his shooting splits need to escape the doldrums.
Desmond Bane is also doing it this year—and arguably more loudly. He's averaging 18.8 points, 2.3 assists and 1.2 steals on 62.4 true shooting. Your first inclination might be to write him off as out-of-the-gate noise. But his efficiency is right in line with last season's splits. However, he's been saddled with a larger role.
Almost 40 percent of Bane's shots this season are coming as pull-up jumpers, up from 25.5 percent in 2020-21. The Memphis Grizzlies haven't seriously leaned into experimenting with him as a pick-and-roll initiator, but he does have more on-ball agency. He's averaging 5.7 drives per game, on which he's shooting 56.3 percent—a top-14 mark among 82 players who have attempted as many field goals in these situations.
Memphis' defense hasn't looked so hot, but Bane is not a root cause. Lineups with him at the 3 haven't been a total disaster, and he's done a nice job breaking up plays as the chaser. His vision for someone not tasked with running the offense is an exquisite kicker. He's not what you'd call mistake-free; he telegraphs tosses and doesn't have the cleanest handle. But he can make lightning-fast touch and swing passes and knows how to wait out opportunities from a standstill.
Brass tacks: Bane has gone from averaging 9.2 points per game as a rookie in an accessory role to nearly doubling his scoring as a key cog in the Grizzlies offense without sacrificing an iota of efficiency. His Most Improved Player buzz will pick up if this holds over the longer term.
Sixth Man of the Year: Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers (+6500)
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After years, nigh decades*, of hearing about how every next season would be the Anfernee Simons breakout season, we may have reached the Anfernee Simons breakout season.
(*It wasn't decades.)
Simons has parlayed the most consistent playing time—and most playing time, period—of his career into 13.7 points and 2.2 assists per game on 63.7 true shooting. He's knocking down 56.0 percent of his twos and 44.7 of his threes, all personal bests, while admirably toggling between (mostly) off-ball duty and chances to attack off the dribble. He's posting a 68.8 effective field-goal percentage on catch-and-shoot opportunities (all threes), and his 53.7 effective field-goal percentage on pull-up jumpers ranks 10th among the 63 players who have attempted as many.
Reliable reps may be hard to come by when Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Norman Powell all play, but Simons' minutes have been largely unaffected by the latter's return. He won't want for shots, either. The Portland Trail Blazers have him in the game to fire away, and he embraces the green light.
Separating himself from a field that includes Tyler Herro (+250), Derrick Rose (+1800), Cam Reddish (+1800) and, well, a slew of others may demand usage Simons doesn't have the flexibility to assume. But he offers distinction through overall improvement.
He has noticeably beefed up his feel when running pick-and-rolls. Defenses know he can score without getting to the rim. Simons has baked in more floor general-esque moves to diversify his portfolio. Look no further than the nifty bounce pass he threaded between two L.A. Clippers defenders to Jusuf Nurkic.
Portland can help Simons' case by ascending up the Western Conference standings. Sixth Man of the Year winners historically don't have to come from good teams, but making impactful contributions to a fringe contender or better does provide a meaningful bump to anyone who isn't notching conventionally gaga microwave scoring numbers. (See: The love Joe Ingles received for his body of work with Utah Jazz last season.)
Defensive Player of the Year: OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors (+5500)
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Betting on any non-big to win Defensive Player of the Year effectively qualifies as a dark-horse investment.
Kawhi Leonard was the last true perimeter player to earn the honor, in 2014-15 and 2015-16. Before him, there was Ron Artest (now Metta Sandiford-Artest) in 2003-04. And prior to him, there was Gary Payton in 1995-96. And...you get the point.
OG Anunoby isn't quite a functional outlier. He's closer to Giannis Antetokounmpo, the 2019-20 DPOY, than what you'd consider an actual wing. He can capably guard all five positions—and does. If he's not defending the other team's toughest assignment, he's covering two to three players' worth of space at once.
The ground he can travel on closeouts is unfathomable. He erases gaps with a disciplined fury, like an under-control tornado. No amount of air space is safe with him on the floor. He jumps passing lanes, swallows opponents whole in one-on-one situations and dramatically ups the difficulty level on would-be gimmes around the basket. He has been, bar none, the best non-big defender this year.
Sticking within the DPOY discussion is hardly implausible. The Toronto Raptors are seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions and don't profile as an early-season anomaly. Their defensive rating is worse with Anunoby on the floor, but that's more of a nod to some of the lineups, beyond the starting five, in which he's played.
If you're thinking "This doesn't read like a sleeper bet's case," I'm right there with you. But the odds are the odds, and Anunoby is laying the same moneyline as future-former Philadelphia 76ers star Benjamin David Simmons (+5500).
MVP: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat (+4900)
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The reaction to Jimmy Butler's offseason extension was overwhelmingly, uncomfortably pro-billionaire-proprietor. Maybe his contract, which runs through his age-36 season, doesn't progress all that well. Who cares? Keeping superstars is critical to championship pursuits, and the Miami Heat have more tightly tethered themselves to a win-now timeline than almost any other team.
Equally cringey: There's a tendency to forget that player production doesn't fall off a cliff immediately after they sign a deal that's not met with the universal stamp of approval. Butler conceivably had his best individual campaign last year, on the heels of the shortest offseason in professional sports history. Ticketing him for regression, even at age 32, was irrational and the likely result of placing too much stock in a first-round playoff letdown readily explained away by exhaustion.
This is all to say: Butler shouldn't be so much of an MVP dark horse. He meets the baseline Maurice Podoloff Trophy criteria to a T: a really good player on what should be a really good team who's posting really good, verging on impossibly good, stat lines.
Through his first six appearances, Butler is averaging a career-high 25.0 points and 5.5 assists on what would be a personal best 62.2 true shooting percentage. The "It's still early" caveat remains applicable, but he's not doing anything especially outside the realm of his ordinary. His 37.5 percent clip from downtown comes on his typically negligible volume, and he's downing fewer of his mid-range jumpers.
Adjusted officiating has significantly impacted neither his rim pressure nor free-throw frequency. He has always been more of an organic brute force than Off-off-Broadway actor. His table-setting has hovered around this level or better for the past half-decade and isn't particularly complex. He drops off and kicks out to shooters, makes good decisions out of double-teams, maintains his dribble and spots defensive breakdowns away from the ball as acutely as any point guard.
Can Butler be the primary engine for Miami's offense and, potentially, league-best defense all year? It's a fair question. But he's answered it in the affirmative before.
Whether he can keep climbing the MVP ladder isn't an issue of maintenance. It's more about interest. The Heat have to care enough about the regular season for him to check the anecdotal box and keep jockeying for position with Stephen Curry (+500), Nikola Jokic (+1800) and others. Butler, Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker may know only one speed: all-out. But Miami remains a candidate to meticulously manage minutes and pace itself in advance of the postseason. A 49-1 payout negates much of that concern.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Monday's games. Salary information via Basketball Insiders and Spotrac.
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Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by NBA Math's Adam Fromal.
