WNBA Finals Preview and Predictions: Legends Collide in Mercury-Sky Matchup

Since the drastic change in the WNBA's playoff format in 2016, which disregarded conference affiliation and created two rounds of single-elimination, a No. 5 or a No. 6 seed has never appeared in the WNBA Finals. That all changes Sunday at 3 p.m. ET when the No. 6-seeded Sky face off against No. 5-seeded Mercury at Footprint Center in Phoenix. 

The last time a team underperformed in the regular season and went on a Finals run was the 2014 Chicago Sky. That year the Sky had the eighth-best record in the league in a series when they faced off against—you guessed it—the Phoenix Mercury. Chicago was swept by a Mercury team that featured a slightly different Big Three with mainstays Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and current Connecticut Sun forward DeWanna Bonner. 

On the Sky side, only two players remain from their 2014 Finals team in now-spouses Courtney Vandersloot and Allie Quigley. That team also included future MVPs Elena Delle Donne and Sylvia Fowles. 

Since then, neither team has reached the Finals, but new additions have helped history repeat. Mercury guard Skylar Diggins-Smith signed with Phoenix for this very reason. For Chicago, Candace Parker will be leading the charge to deliver her home city's first WNBA championship. 

Another fun twist is the spousal battle between Mercury head coach Sandy Brondello and Sky assistant Olaf Lange. While there's been some question over if Lange will get to sleep at his home with Brondello in Phoenix and their children, Brondello has embraced the fun of the situation. 

"Our kids are going to be a part of this journey," Brondello said. "I'll have to get them out of school this week. They'll definitely be coming in to Chicago as well. It's pretty cool. It's pretty cool for them. They kind of get a little conflicted, but I think they'll be cheering for the Phoenix Mercury."

In the league's 25th season, it's also quite poetic to have a WNBA Finals with two of the players who have shaped women's basketball the most in the Mercury's Taurasi and the Sky's Parker. 

Chase Stevens/Associated Press

But with more professional basketball behind them than in front, could one of the all-time greats ride off into the sunset on top of the mountain? We're getting ahead of ourselves...

The Big Question for the Mercury: Does Playoff Peddy Continue Shocking the World? 

The Mercury won every game they played against the Sky this season. But the Sky were battling injuries and inconsistency in focus, taking care of the ball and defense. 

Their current situations have flipped. The Mercury are now the team with less depth and major concerns on defense. 

So how did the Mercury make it here? How did they win Friday's decisive Game 5 over the Las Vegas Aces without a small forward available after Kia Nurse tore her ACL in Game 4? On top of that, Sophie Cunningham has been out since Game 3 with a calf strain. 

The answer has been Shey Peddy. With Nurse out, Peddy brought needed effort on defense in addition to consistent scoring. Peddy scored 13 points on 4-of-4 shooting in Game 4, followed by 15 points and series-clinching free throws in Game 5. 

The Big Question for the Sky: Can Chicago Ride Kahleah Copper Throughout the Finals? 

While all eyes are on Parker bringing a championship to her home city, don't forget about the Sky's leading scorer throughout these entire playoffs: All-Star Kahleah Copper.

Against solid defensive teams like the Minnesota Lynx and the Connecticut Sun, neither could contain Copper and her lethal first step into the lane. The Sky's offensive identity is shaped around how Copper plays and dependent on a driving backcourt that can score in the paint.

"I saw that early in training camp," Parker told Rachel Galligan of Just Women's Sports about Copper. "I have always played against her and she was always really hard to guard, but to be able to see it up close and personal in training camp, I was like, 'Wow, she can be something really crazy' and she's already a really good player."

Parker also knows Copper can knock down mid-range jumpers and shoot threes. Copper takes pride in her defense as she's sustained a 92.9 defensive rating in the postseason, the best among players who have played 20 minutes per game or more.

Sky head coach James Wade knows Copper's intangibles help, too. She sets an example for her teammates with the appropriate energy levels required to compete in the W.

"That's who she is, and that's who she's been for us," he said after Game 3 of the semifinals. "Even since the bubble, like she's been our emotional leader. ... She's able to put us on her shoulders emotionally and feed that energy. You felt the crowd, so not only did our team follow her, but the crowd followed her as well."

A depleted Mercury backcourt might have trouble tracking Copper around the court, but she's also up against two of the best paint defenders in All-Defensive team honorees Brittney Griner and Brianna Turner.

The Matchup That Matters 

We'll just say it bluntly. The frontcourt matchups will decide this series.

More specifically, how does Parker go to work with Griner in her face? And can Azura Stevens own the offensive glass despite Turner's all-angles-covered box-outs?

Both Stevens and Parker should be able to draw Turner and Griner out of the paint. Stevens drilled three 3-pointers against the Sun, only missing one long ball in Game 4. Conversely, Stevens will have her hands full keeping track of Turner, the main benefactor of Griner double-teams.

Brondello explained the way in which Phoenix has taken advantage of Turner's athleticism and strengths all season long. Opposing defenses often lose track of Turner in the dunker spot near the baseline just outside the lane.

"It's also that flashing to the high[-post] and then being able to penetrate and make the next action play," Brondello said. "We try and put her in some screening action as well, just because they want to trap our guards, [and] just her movement out of it, her separation out of it, it makes it even harder for them to guard."

Prediction Time!

Both teams enter the Finals with a chip on their shoulder. A month ago, few believed either would make it here.

The Sky are finally in a place where their depth is clicking, with a more in-sync defense and a loaded offense.

If the Sky can expose the Mercury's lack of depth and defensive prowess at small forward, Chicago will put itself in a favorable spot. Brondello suggested Cunningham might be available for Game 2 on Wednesday to potentially stem their depth issues.

Will the Sky struggle against a low-post juggernaut in Griner and Turner, compared to a more favorable matchup versus Connecticut's Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones? That's a safe bet. With how Griner and Turner have played together this postseason, nothing near the rim will come easy for Chicago.

But in the playoffs, ball pressure can take any team out of its game plan. Whoever can take care of the ball and value possessions best will win the series.

Finals prediction: The Sky, who have been road warriors the entire postseason, will win the series in five on the road in Phoenix.