1 Flaw Every Top Young MLB Star Needs to Fix This Offseason
Young talent has been and still very much is all the rage in Major League Baseball, but even the game's best young players can still get better.
As for how? Well, we have ideas for 10 of them.
We sought to highlight these players' biggest flaw, which meant pointing out the obvious in some cases and digging deep for nits to pick in others. In any case, the sky's the limit if they can address these flaws between now and the start of the 2022 season.
We'll start with some honorable mentions and then proceed alphabetically with the guys in the spotlight.
Honorable Mentions
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RHP Ian Anderson, Atlanta
His first 30 major league starts have yielded a solid 3.25 ERA, but he might do even better if he can further develop his curveball. To date, it's featuredย subpar movementย and gotten hit at aย .267 clip.
2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
There's nothing wrong with either his speed or raw power, but he's only going to go so far with a strikeout rate in theย 10th percentile. His first step should be cutting down his ugly 41.6 whiff rate against off-speed pitches.
3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates
He's a gifted defender and a promising hitter, but he's thus far made weirdly infrequent use of his pull side in the majors. Of his 42 extra-base hits in his career, onlyย this doubleย andย this doubleย were remotely close to the left-field line. He's thus been cutting off a potentially lucrative power avenue.
LHP Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
He was generally excellent in putting up a 2.64 ERA as a rookie in 2021, but he had a relativelyย hard timeย against left-handed batters. They notablyย hit .364ย against his slider, which is the kind of pitch that typically delivers wins to the pitcher in left-on-left matchups.
RF Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
His only real flaw is that he's too mean to opposing pitchers, so maybe he should try striking out more.
SS Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays: Defensive Consistency
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Age:ย 23
As he swung atย more pitchesย than any other hitter in 2021, it's fair to call Bo Bichette a free-swinger. But he's also a career .301 hitter with power and speed, so it's likewise fair to say offense isn't his problem.
Not as much as his defense, anyway.
Sure, Bichette was worth threeย defensive runs savedย at shortstop for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021. Yet he was in the red for ultimate zone rating (minus-5.2) andย outs above averageย (minus-6), and he indeed committed theย most errorsย (24) of any player at any position.
Bichette's proneness to errors is partially related to his above-average range, but he also struggles with basic execution. His internal clock often seems a bit off, and he could specifically stand toย soften his handsย and throw withย more accuracy.
Ultimately, Bichette resembles a younger Tim Anderson on defense. If he can make like Anderson and put in the work of turning himself into a reliable shortstop, his star will shine even brighter than it already does.
OF Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals: Better Contact Against the Slow Stuff
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Age:ย 22
After a slow start, it wasn't until the final two months of the regular season that Dylan Carlson truly resembled a star for the St. Louis Cardinals. He hit .301/.364/.503 over his lastย 47 games.
Even then, Carlson was still averaging a paltryย 86.3 mphย in exit velocity on his batted balls. So it went for his entire season, throughout which his exit velo was in theย 29th percentile.
Putting a charge into fastballs wasn't Carlson's problem, as hisย 90.0 mphย mark against heat was better than the MLB average ofย 89.3 mph. Breaking and off-speed stuff was another story:
In fairness, Carlson wasย hardly the onlyย name-brand hitter who struggled to put a charge into the slow stuff this season. It nonetheless underscores how only three of his home runs were against breaking and off-speed stuff. If it isn't already, that's sure to be on his scouting report for 2022.
The sooner Carlson proves he can hit more than just fastballs for power, the sooner he should realize his potential as a 30-homer slugger.
SS Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays: Figure out RH Fastballs
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Age:ย 20
Before we go any further, let's acknowledge how incredible it is that Wander Franco is already this good despite being only 20 years old and not yet a finished product.
The switch-hitting Franco even improved as the season progressed, upgrading his performance against right-handers that went from a .179/.233/.179 line throughย July 24ย to a .278/.336/.468 lineย after then.ย
Nonetheless, Franco still has a specific flaw in that he wasn't particularly goodย against four-seam fastballs. Ones from righties naturally gave him more trouble,ย holding himย to a .233 average and a .350 slugging percentage.
Looking even closer, Franco really only put up a fight when a right-hander missedย down the middleย with a four-seamer. In other words, a righty with good fastball command easily neutralized him.
Is this also true of most hitters? Sure. But Franco has it in him to be so much better than most hitters, and taking care of this would be a major step toward getting to that point.
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: A Possible Route to Fewer Whiffs
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Age:ย 22
Before anyone even mentions it, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s defense is fine. If anything, he surpassed expectations by leading first basemen in scoops and generally doing competent work at first base this season.
Offensively, it's obviously not going to be easy for Guerrero to improve on his 2021 season. It wasn't just his results but also hisย peripheral numbersย that placed him in the upper-upper echelon of hitters. To wit, his expected batting average and slugging percentage were in the 99th and 98th percentiles, respectively.
Still, we can't help but imagine Guerrero with something better than a 28th-percentile whiff rate.
To this end, the Blue Jays slugger was no better thanย averageย at laying off breaking and off-speed stuff outside the strike zone, which he chasedย 31.3 percentย of the time. And of those swings,ย 64.8 percentย came up empty.
If Guerrero can cut down on those whiffs, he might start resembling his dad as a bad-ball hitter. If he instead cuts down on the swings, he stands to draw more walks. Either way, he wins.
2B Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds: Try Swinging More
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Age:ย 24
Jonathan India didn't take off early in his rookie season, but he sure did after moving into the Cincinnati Reds' leadoff spot on June 5. Inย 105 gamesย the rest of the way, he hit .274/.382/.480 with 17 home runs.
But was India too passive?
Arguably so, given that he had the lowestย in-zone swing rateย of any qualified hitter. The inherent complication in suggesting he change that is that it could mess with his overall discipline, which could potentially undercut his rise as one of the game's top leadoff men.
Still, there is the potential of increased power if India becomes more aggressive within the strike zone. Though his exit velocity was only in theย 20th percentileย overall, he averaged a sturdyย 90.2 mphย when he made contact against pitches in the zone.
If India can attain the proper balance in 2022, his ceiling is as a .400 OBP guy with 25-30-home run power. That's All-Star and maybe even MVP-caliber stuff.
RHP Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers: Eliminate That Platoon Split
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Age:ย 24
What Casey Mize did in his first full season with the Detroit Tigers was perfectly acceptable. If he can so much as replicate it going forward, he'll become a solid mid-rotation starter.
But if Mize is going to be the ace that the Tigers envisioned when they drafted him No. 1 overall in 2018, he'll need to start dominating when he doesn't have theย platoon advantage. While right-handed batters struggled against him in 2021, lefty batters had him figured:
- vs. RHB:ย .600 OPS
- vs. LHB:ย .845 OPS
It's good that Mize struck out lefties (19.1 percent) at basically the same rate as he did righties (19.4 percent). But lefties drew more walks (25 to 16) and hit significantly more home runs, tallying 17 of the 24 long balls that Mize gave up all season.
Given that theyย sluggedย .808 against it, Mize should scrap his sinker against lefty batters. He might develop a cutter to throw them instead or simply emphasize a curveball against which they slugged just .286.
Whatever the case, Mize will have All-Star upside if he diminishes his platoon split in 2022.
3B Austin Riley, Atlanta: Solve Left-Handers
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Age:ย 24
Austin Riley was undoubtedly good in 2021, but exactlyย howย good varies depending on your preferredย defensive metric. Suffice it to say that his plus-13 for defensive runs at third base saved in 2021 isn't the complete story.
What is undeniably true, though, is that Riley should be doing a lot better against left-handers. Hisย splitsย were especially jarring in 2021:
- vs. RHP:ย .941 OPS, 30 HR
- vs. LHP:ย .752 OPS, 3 HR
Riley handled fastballs from lefties well enough,ย hittingย .275 and slugging .478 against them. But breaking balls from southpaws gave him fits, holding him to a .200 average with just two extra-base hits. Among the root causes of that was that heย swung overย too many breaking balls that landed down and in.
It was only two years ago that Riley hit seven of his 18 home runs as a rookie against left-handers, so snapping out of the funk they put him in this season should be doable.
If that does prove to be the case, he could make the leap from a 30-homer slugger to a 40-homer powerhouse.
SS Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres: Fewer Strikeouts, Please
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Age:ย 22
The numbers that Fernando Tatis Jr. put up this year are impressive enough, but even more so in the context of how he was playing with onlyย one healthy shoulder.
There is, however, the matter of Tatis' strikeouts. He's yet to carry so much as an average K% in his three seasons with the San Diego Padres, but the whiffs were especially plentiful in 2021 as he landed in theย 13th percentileย for strikeout rate.
We could suggest that Tatis shorten up and try to put the ball in play in two-strike counts, but that would be like telling someone in a Ferrari to obey the speed limit.ย
Rather, Tatis just needs to be better about swinging outside the strike zone. While his chase rate was only in the 40th percentile in 2021, he wasย the worstย in the National League at actually making contact when he went fishing outside the zone.
Ideally, Tatis will cut down on his swings outside the zone. Failing that, he could at least become a better bad-ball hitter. If he's successful either way, an already great player will become basically unbeatable.
LF/RF Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros: Shape Up Against RH Breaking Balls
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Age:ย 24
Kyle Tucker got off to a slow start for the Houston Astros, but something clicked for him in early May. Overย 107 gamesย between May 9 and the end of the year, he hit .329/.394/.620 with 25 homers.
Tucker'sย peripheral statsย underscored his excellence, as he was in the 97th and 95th percentiles for expected average and expected slugging, respectively.
Even still, the lefty swinger's performance against right-handed breaking stuff could stand to improve. Even more specifically, Tucker hitย under .200ย against righty sliders for the third year in a row. By comparison, the average lefty hitterย hit .210ย against such pitches in 2021.
Rather than one of zone coverage, this seems to be a recognition problem. Tucker's outs against righty sliders wereย mostly concentratedย down and in, where he was otherwiseย about as dangerousย as the typical lefty slugger against right-handers.
If this one very specific shortcoming were to vanish in 2021, there won't be anything stopping Tucker from settling in as a regular All-Star and MVP candidate.
LHP Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers: Revitalize That Four-Seamer
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Age:ย 25
What a year Julio Urias had for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and perhaps the best part of it was the workload that he handled. With 185.2 innings, he beat his previous career high in the majors by over 100 innings.
Not bad for a guy who didn't have an especially effective four-seam fastball.
Though Urias relied on his four-seamer forย 47.8 percentย of his offerings, opposing batters hit .277 and slugged .484 against it. Byย run value, it was a below-average pitch.
That shouldn't have been the case because Urias averaged 94.1 mph with a 94th-percentile spin rate on his four-seamer. However, he was perhaps too predictable with his location, working his four-seamer almost exclusively up and in against bothย leftiesย andย righties.
If he can do a better job of varying his locations in 2022, Urias could get the average against his four-seamer back under the Mendoza line like it was in 2020. That would be his ticket to even brighter stardom.
Stats courtesy ofย Baseball Reference,ย FanGraphsย andย Baseball Savant.
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