Reacting to B/R MLB Community's Bold Playoff Predictions 1 Month Out
Welcome to this week's Bleacher Report MLB community article.
With roughly one month to go until the conclusion of the regular season, now is the perfect time for some bold predictions.
Covering everything from how the regular season will play out to playoff matchups to potential World Series MVPs, readers went out on a limb with some fearless predictions for the 2021 MLB postseason.
It's time to explore just how plausible these scenarios are.
The Mariners' Playoff Drought Finally Ends
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"Mariners break their 20-year playoff drought and make the second AL wild card." (@bhansenhines)
"Marco Gonzales throws seven shutout innings against the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Game." (@brobinson22)
The last time the Seattle Mariners were in the playoffs, Ichiro Suzuki was a rookie sensation, 38-year-old Jamie Moyer won 20 games, Bret Boone led the club with 37 home runs and 141 RBI, and they tied an MLB record with 116 wins.
That was 20 years ago, giving them the odious distinction of having the longest active playoff drought of any team from the four major sports, ahead of the Sacramento Kings (15 years), New York Jets (10 years) and Buffalo Sabres (10 years).
Is this the year they finally end it?
With a 71-62 record entering play Wednesday, they were 3.5 games back in the AL wild-card standings with two teams to pass to move into the No. 2 spot. With six of their next nine games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, they have a golden opportunity to make a move.
If they do sneak into the Wild Card Game, Marco Gonzales will be a major X-factor, as he's pitched to a 1.95 ERA in 50.2 innings since the All-Star break.
The Cardinals Take Down a Giant
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"Cardinals get hot, take the second wild card, and eliminate the Giants in the Wild Card Game." (@Ctopher_23)
It looked like the St. Louis Cardinals were finally hitting their stride during an 8-1 stretch in early August, but they went 6-7 in their next 13 games to close out the month.
They were only 2.5 games back in the NL wild-card race entering play Wednesday, but there are four teams ahead of them in the standings with just two spots up for grabs.
With 10 games left against the Milwaukee Brewers, four with the Los Angeles Dodgers, three with the San Diego Padres and three with the New York Mets, the road ahead in September is not going to be easy. That said, seven of their final 10 games are against a floundering Chicago Cubs team, so if they can stay in the hunt, they'll have a great opportunity to make a late push.
Veteran Adam Wainwright (6 GS, 5-1, 1.43 ERA in August) is once again a bona fide ace, and the pitching staff as a whole ranked fourth in the majors with a 3.30 ERA in August. Will that be enough to carry them to a wild-card berth?
If they can get that far, anything can happen, especially if Wainwright keeps dominating.
Luis Castillo Carries the Reds in the Wild Card Game
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"After an extremely disappointing season, Luis Castillo makes up for it and shocks the baseball world by out-dueling Max Scherzer in the NL Wild Card game, sending the Reds to the NLDS." (@QRcode)
If you still think Luis Castillo has been "extremely disappointing" you haven't been paying attention.
Since the beginning of June, he has a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 111 strikeouts in 104.2 innings, and he's recorded 14 quality starts in 17 appearances during that stretch.
The 28-year-old could absolutely carry the Cincinnati Reds to a Wild Card Game victory.
Taking it one step further, the Reds beat Max Scherzer on May 25 when he was still a member of the Washington Nationals. The future Hall of Famer allowed five hits and two earned runs with nine strikeouts over seven strong innings, but he was outdueled by Tyler Mahle and Tejay Antone, who combined for eight shutout innings.
If they can hold off the San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets in the NL wild-card race, the Reds could be an October dark horse.
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The Blue Jays Get Hot
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"Everything clicks for the Blue Jays in the final month and they make the wild card." (@j_slime)
The Toronto Blue Jays have felt like a sleeping giant all year.
They have not posted a losing record in any month this season, and their plus-116 run differential trails only the Houston Astros (+173), Tampa Bay Rays (+171) and Chicago White Sox (+141) among American League teams.
However, they have not had a winning streak longer than five games this season.
Lefties Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have both been throwing the ball extremely well lately, but the rest of the starting rotation—Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah and Jose Berrios—has been inconsistent, and that could make it difficult to go on a roll unless those other arms can pick it up.
There is plenty of offensive firepower on the Toronto roster, and the bullpen has rounded into form thanks to newcomers Joakim Soria and Adam Cimber, so the starting rotation will be the X-factor in their ability to string together wins.
For now, they face a 4.5-game deficit in the wild-card standings with four teams ahead of them in the AL wild-card race going into Wednesday.
Jacob deGrom Returns in Time
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"NL East champion Mets activate Jacob deGrom in time to ride a winning streak to a World Series victory." (@angt222)
Jacob deGrom played catch for the first time in more than a month last Wednesday after an MRI revealed enough improvement in his elbow to take that next step forward.
Does that mean his return is imminent?
Not so fast.
According to Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated, there is still "about a 99.9 percent chance" that he is finished for the season, and with two years and $68 million left on his contract, it makes sense that the New York Mets would be looking at the bigger picture.
The next few weeks will go a long way toward determining whether it's even worth pushing the envelope for a potential return, as the Mets still face a 5.5-game deficit in the NL East and the NL wild-card race after a 9-19 month of August.
2021 Brewers = 2005 White Sox
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"Brewers go on a 2005 White Sox type run, losing just one game to the Dodgers in the NLCS." (@mcosta15)
The Chicago White Sox went on one of the most impressive postseason runs in recent history 16 years ago, rolling over the Boston Red Sox (3-0), Los Angeles Angels (4-1) and Houston Astros (4-0) to claim the World Series title.
The strength of that White Sox team was its pitching, specifically the foursome of Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland in the starting rotation and flamethrower Bobby Jenks in the closer role.
The same can be said of this year's Milwaukee Brewers team.
The three-headed monster of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta has been lethal all season atop the rotation, but they're not alone. Eric Lauer (5 GS, 3.12 ERA, 26.0 IP) and Adrian Houser (5 GS, 3.51 ERA, 25.2 IP) threw the ball well in August, and the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all year with Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger shortening games.
The Brewers offense has been transformed by the additions of Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez and Eduardo Escobar, and Christian Yelich is starting to look like his old self of late, but this team will go as far as its terrific pitching staff carries it.
That could be all the way to a World Series title if they go on a run similar to the 2005 White Sox.
Bryzzo Reunites
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"Kris Bryant and the Giants will beat the Mets and Javier Baez in the NLCS. Anthony Rizzo and the Yankees will beat Kyle Schwarber and the Red Sox in the ALCS. Bryzzo will reunite in the World Series and I will never watch baseball again." (@TheRyanFelix)
This would be quite the storyline.
All four players have made headlines with their new teams, some for reasons other than their on-field performance, and all four teams are still very much in the playoff mix.
Here's a quick look at how they've fared in their new uniforms:
It might be more of a long shot to have the Mets and Red Sox in their respective LCS matchups than it is to predict a Giants vs. Yankees Fall Classic, but anything can happen in October.
For Cubs fans, a Bryzzo World Series reunion would be one more gut punch in a trying season.
The Boldest of Bold Predictions
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"The Rays win Game 1 of the ALDS over the Yankees thanks to the benefit of a catwalk interference. The Yankees complain and MLB gives the Rays an ultimatum: forfeit their remaining home playoff games or play them at the Field of Dreams whose capacity is roughly the same as the average attendance at the Trop anyway. To the Field of Dreams they go and after an incredible experience the Rays decide to permanently relocate to Iowa, beginning in 2022, as the Dyersville Dreamers." (@QRcode)
Stands up.
Claps.
The rest of the bold predictions we received for this article, and really any other community article we've written in the past, pale in comparison to this Mona Lisa-esque work of art.
A callout of the ridiculous catwalk at Tropicana Field, an absurd ultimatum that seems right up Rob Manfred's alley, a return to the Field of Dreams—where one of baseball's most memorable moments this season occurred—and even a hypothetical new team name.
It truly has everything.
Bold World Series MVP Picks
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"Nelson Cruz will be the World Series MVP!" (@derekulloa)
Cruz has a 93 OPS+ in 29 games since joining the Rays, a notable downturn in production relative to what he was doing in Minnesota. That said, he also has a 1.019 OPS with 17 home runs in 46 career playoff games, so it's not hard to envision him going off in October.
"Rowdy Tellez WS MVP!" (@joshuag71)
Why not? The burly slugger has a 126 OPS+ with seven home runs and 24 RBI in 44 games since joining the Milwaukee Brewers, and hitting primarily in the No. 5 spot in the lineup, he should have plenty of opportunities to make his mark on the postseason.
"The Braves will go on an unbelievable run to the WS on the back of WS MVP Max Fried." (@joshwin01)
The Braves used an 18-8 record in August to climb to the top of the NL East standings, and Max Fried was a big part of their success. The 27-year-old southpaw went 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in five August starts, including his first career shutout on Aug. 20.
Quick-Hit World Series Picks
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"White Sox win it all baby." (@ClaytonBigsby817)
"Astros World Series champs." (@ruizoo82)
"Dodgers win the World Series. White Sox win the AL off an Andrew Vaughn ALCS MVP performance." (@ryty4)
"Rays only lose three games all postseason to win their first ever WS. Randy Arozarena reminds everyone who Playoff Randy is." (@ChampaBaySports)
"The Braves beat the Athletics in the World Series in seven games." (@kylet)
"Brewers finish with baseball's best record and beat the Rays in the WS." (@HawkRock)
"Giants win World Series!" (@freddiefreeman7)
"Yankees in six over Dodgers. Judge wins WS MVP, hitting over .350 with five HRs and 12 RBI." (@CCrodriguez99)
As expected, readers offered up a wide variety of World Series predictions. Each of the top eight teams in our most recent power rankings were represented with at least one pick.
For the sake of jumping into the conversation myself, here are my playoff picks as of writing this Wednesday afternoon:
- AL WC: Yankees over Athletics
- ALDS: Rays over Yankees, White Sox over Astros
- ALCS: Rays over White Sox
- NL WC: Dodgers over Reds
- NLDS: Giants over Dodgers, Brewers over Braves
- NLCS: Brewers over Giants
- WS: Brewers over Rays in six
There you have it. Now bring on the postseason!
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, and accurate through Tuesday's games.
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