Betting Guide for Capital One's The Match: Brady-Phil vs. Rodgers-DeChambeau

Brad Gagnon@Brad_Gagnon NFL National ColumnistJuly 5, 2021

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, left, and New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady speak at midfield after an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Steven Senne/Associated Press

The fourth edition of Capital One's The Match pits Green Bay Packers reigning MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers and 2020 U.S. Open winner Bryson DeChambeau against Tampa Bay Buccaneers reigning Super Bowl MVP signal-caller Tom Brady and six-time major winner Phil Mickelson.

Looking to make things just a little more interesting when you tune in Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET on TNT for what's sure to be a rollicking exhibition at The Reserve at Moonlight Basin in Big Sky, Montana?

Here's a rundown of what DraftKings has to offer from a betting standpoint.


Odds to win

DeChambeau/Rodgers: -182
Mickelson/Brady: +135

There's little doubt DeChambeau/Rodgers should be favored. DeChambeau ranks sixth in the official world golf rankings, while the 51-year-old Mickelson ranks 31st. Rodgers is also considered to be a better amateur golfer than Brady, and the Jack Nicklaus-designed course might give an extra advantage to the younger, stronger guys. It plays to 8,000 yards and features one of the longest holes in the country. The elevation should help everyone gain some distance, but DeChambeau is the longest driver on tour.

John Minchillo/Associated Press

With that in mind, -182 ain't bad, and +135 might not be enticing enough to jump on the underdogs. That said, Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning beat this very same Mickelson/Brady duo last year, and those legendary winners will likely be determined to avoid another loss together.

Betting against Tom Brady is never comfortable.


Hole 1 winner

DeChambeau/Rodgers: -125
Mickelson/Brady: -106

Alternatively, if you aren't confident anyone will jump out ahead on the first hole, you can get better odds for DeChambeau/Rodgers to be the first to go up 1 (-137) or for Mickelson/Brady to do the same (+105).

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

On one hand, the first hole is a pretty wide-open par four that isn't particularly easy or daunting. It's the No. 9 handicap hole, so a halve seems like a strong possibility.

But on the other hand, it's possible nerves will cause somebody to blow up right out of the gate. Neither Rodgers nor DeChambeau has done this before, and DeChambeau's length off the tee might not provide him a huge edge on a medium-length par four with a dogleg. Mickelson/Brady are a tempting bet here.


First to go 2 up

DeChambeau/Rodgers: -159
Mickelson/Brady: +115

As mentioned, you can also get slightly less extreme odds (-137 and +105, respectively) for the first to go 1 up if you think it'll be close. That said, if you're in on the more experienced duo shocking the newbies early, this is a chance to make some money on Mickelson/Brady.

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

There isn't much value in hitting DeChambeau/Rodgers here, as they have similar odds to win outright and it's harder to see them going up early and collapsing later when scoring opportunities perk up on three late par fives.

If anything, the natural arc is an early Mickelson/Brady lead followed by a charge from DeChambeau/Rodgers on the back nine.


Leading after X holes

3 holes
DeChambeau/Rodgers: -134 
Mickelson/Brady: +100

6 holes
DeChambeau/Rodgers: -137
Mickelson/Brady: +105

9 holes
DeChambeau/Rodgers: -150
Mickelson/Brady: +110

12 holes
DeChambeau/Rodgers: -159
Mickelson/Brady: +115

15 holes
DeChambeau/Rodgers: -175
Mickelson/Brady: +130

This is interesting. The first three holes are not big challenges relative to the rest of the course, and Mickelson/Brady could easily capitalize on their experience. The par threes might even favor that duo, and the third is the second-shortest hole on the course.

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

This match could begin to swing toward the faves on the long par-five sixth, the No. 3 handicap hole. If Brady is indeed the least skilled golfer of the group, he could find trouble there while DeChambeau simply outmuscles Mickelson. But it's possible that'll just get the favored pair back in it, so I wouldn't shy away from taking good odds on Mickelson/Brady until things become really long and treacherous between the 12th and the 15th.

That probably explains why the odds change dramatically in that range.


Longest tee shot (available on holes 1, 6 and 8)

DeChambeau: -200 
Mickelson: +140

DeChambeau averages 322.4 yards per drive, while Mickelson averages 302.6. If you're going to take a swing with Phil anywhere, stick to the sixth or the eighth because DeChambeau is more likely to run into trouble off those tees.

Another strategy could be to hedge with DeChambeau on the wide-open first tee and then roll the dice on Mickelson later. Neither player is clearly more accurate off the tee than the other, but Lefty is the vet and it's not hard to imagine DeChambeau getting fired up and making a mistake under the prime-time circumstances.


Will a quarterback hit the fairway on hole X?

1st hole
Yes: -305
No: +210

10th hole
Yes: -250
No: +175

Brady is an 8.1 handicap, while Rodgers is a 4.6, according to Forbes, but Rodgers has said he thinks Brady is better than that. Regardless of whether either is a sandbagger, it's unlikely they'll both miss the fairway.

Still, that first-tee "No" at +210 is tempting because we're still talking about amateurs who could have a different set of nerves out of the gate. Those odds are inflated by the fact that it's a pretty open fairway, while the 10th is a little more daunting off the tee.


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