Predicting the Fates of NBA's Top 2021 Restricted Free Agents
Restricted free agents aren't quite as free as it seems. Other teams can come with lucrative offer sheets, but the incumbent team's matching rights means there's little doubt about who's holding the power during the NBA offseason.
Particularly disgruntled RFAs can take back some leverage by signing a qualifying offer with their current team, as Kristaps Porzingis threatened to do back in 2019. But that's a risky path to unrestricted free agency the next offseason. If something goes wrong—injury or a decline in performance—the player will wish he'd sacrificed some autonomy in exchange for the multiyear deals that would have been on the table in restricted free agency.
That's why it's exceedingly rare for RFAs to sign qualifying offers. The risk-reward calculus favors restricted free agency.
Things could get interesting this offseason, as the overall free-agent crop is barren. Several teams have significant cap space, and some of them are in just the right phase of their growth process to invest heavily in young talents coming off their rookie contracts. Teams tend to spend whatever cash they've got, and that could lead to some eye-opening offer sheets.
Will incumbent teams match them, or let their valuable restricted free agents go?
5. Lauri Markkanen, Chicago Bulls
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The writing’s on the wall for Lauri Markkanen.
The No. 7 pick in the 2017 draft lost his starting role with the Chicago Bulls midway through his fourth season, despite shooting a career-best 40.2 percent from long range. Chicago clearly wasn’t satisfied with Markkanen’s one-dimensional game, and his demotion only reinforced the lack of faith the franchise showed in him by not agreeing to an extension prior to the 2020-21 season.
If Markkanen is part of the Bulls' long-term plans, the team is performing a phenomenal act of misdirection. Everything Chicago has done over the past year or so suggests it’s ready to move on.
Markkanen's shooting is legit. He’s at 36.6 percent on 1,346 career attempts from deep and is particularly deadly from the corners. Any team in need of a big who can space the floor in a limited role should have its eye on the 7-footer, though it should be understood that Markkanen is going to be a target on D.
He needs to land with an organization that already has strong defenders at the guard and wing spots, plus a genuine rim-protector inside. That’s basically the perfect description of the San Antonio Spurs, who should field a 2021-22 lineup including Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Jakob Poeltl.
Prediction: Markkanen signs with the Spurs for no more than $15 million per season.
4. Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers
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The only piece of significant value the Cleveland Cavaliers gave up to get Jarrett Allen was the Milwaukee Bucks' 2022 first-round pick, so it's not like they're pot-committed to keeping the 23-year-old center. At the same time, his acquisition never felt like a rental.
Allen fits the age band of Cleveland's rebuild, and he's very much the type of shot-blocking, rim-rolling support piece you'd want on the back line behind a young and mistake-prone perimeter defense.
Terry Pluto of Cleveland.com believes the Cavs are going to give Allen "$100 million or more in a contract extension," which would have been the end of this discussion until the franchise officially secured the No. 3 pick in the 2021 draft.
If USC center Evan Mobley is available at that spot, Cleveland might want to reconsider its attachment to Allen. In today's NBA, it's impossible to justify paying a non-superstar conventional center anything close to $100 million; Mobley would be a far cheaper, more sensible alternative.
The Charlotte Hornets need a center and could float an offer sheet, and Yahoo's Chris Haynes reported in March the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs and Washington Wizards are expected to have interest in Allen as well. It just seems unlikely the Cavs will let Allen get away without a fight.
Predictions: Mobley comes off the board at No. 2, and Cleveland is able to keep Allen for less than $100 million.
3. Duncan Robinson, Miami Heat
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Duncan Robinson wasn't quite as scorching this past season as he was in 2019-20, but when a 40.8 percent hit rate on 8.5 three-point attempts per game represents a down year, you know you're dealing with a top-flight shooter.
Those are always in demand, so Robinson will have no shortage of suitors.
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported the bidding for Robinson's services could get up around $20 million per season. If that's the case, the Miami Heat, who prefer to spend their money on landscape-altering stars, might hesitate to match.
That might not bother Robinson, whose free-agency priorities don't seem particularly sentimental, via Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel: "First and foremost, the fit, a place where I can really feel comfortable. Winning is obviously a priority for me, as well. And then, of course, it's also a business and there's an opportunity to make money to take care of people that I love the most."
This one's close, and the Heat also have to consider Kendrick Nunn's restricted free agency, along with preservation of cap space for a deeper class of free agents in 2022.
But in the end, Robinson provides offense-altering spacing all by himself. If there are multiple suitors near that $20 million mark, that should tell the Heat they can sign Robinson at that rate with assurances they could trade him in the future star-grabbing move they've surely already got cooked up.
Even if Miami doesn't intend to keep Robinson for what the market says he's worth, he'll still be a valuable asset.
(Way-Too-Specific) Prediction: The Heat match a four-year, $74 million offer sheet to keep Robinson.
2. Lonzo Ball, New Orleans Pelicans
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Lonzo Ball is a fine theoretical fit with the New Orleans Pelicans. But then, a knockdown shooter who can defend his position and keep the ball moving, especially in transition, is a theoretical fit just about anywhere.
It's the financials that could force a parting of ways between Ball and the Pels.
Brandon Ingram is already locked in on a max deal, Zion Williamson is sure to command max money when it's his turn, and securing Ball on a contract that pays him north of $20 million per season could foreclose on the Pelicans' opportunity to land a starrier name to complement Zion.
The Pelicans need to think long and hard about how big of an offer sheet they're willing to match. ESPN cap expert Bobby Marks told Marc Berman of the New York Post that he doubted New Orleans would consider matching a starting salary above $18 million per season.
With the New York Knicks among the teams capable of paying Ball substantially more than that (up to $28 million in the first year of a new deal, to be precise), the odds seem to favor Ball pricing himself out of New Orleans' plans.
Prediction: Ball signs an offer sheet with the Knicks, and the Pelicans decline to match.
1. John Collins, Atlanta Hawks
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It’s ironic that by embracing a playing style that doesn’t tend to get players paid, John Collins has recently made it much more likely his Atlanta Hawks will fork over serious cash to keep him.
Prior to the 2021 playoffs, Collins seemed like something of an empty-calories contributor. He could get his points and rebounds (21.6 and 10.1, respectively, in 2019-20 before mild dips in both categories this year), but it wasn’t always clear those stats contributed to winning. Defensively, Collins was suspect, and he didn’t exhibit the most consistent focus or intensity.
The springy and skillful forward transformed during the Hawks’ 2021 playoff run, embracing a lower-usage role and becoming a high-energy practitioner of the little things that every team needs to achieve meaningful success. He attacked the offensive glass with renewed aplomb and surrendered on-ball opportunities in exchange for more screen-setting and better passing in the flow of the offense. He also toughened up defensively and exhibited reliable attentiveness on both ends.
This version of Collins, despite declines in his box-score stats, is more valuable to Atlanta than the one who could get 20 and 10 every night. As such, expect the Hawks to either put forth the best offer before other teams get a shot or match whatever’s coming Collins’ way.
Prediction: Collins sticks with the Hawks on a multiyear deal worth over $100 million.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
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