Super Bowl Odds 2021: Point Spread, Score and Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Predictions

Sunday's Super Bowl figures to be a spectacle unlike any other in history. In addition to concluding the COVID-19 pandemic-altered 2020 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers essentially get a home game against the Kansas City Chiefs with the Lombardi Trophy on the line.

The storylines abound in this one. Last spring, Tampa Bay went all-in on getting to this spot by signing Tom Brady in the offseason. Now, it will have the opportunity to prove that was a wise choice with the opportunity to win its second Super Bowl.

For the Chiefs, this is the opportunity to edge toward dynasty territory with Patrick Mahomes under center. After winning last year's game, they can become the first team to go back-to-back since the New England Patriots in 2003 and 2004, and Mahomes' long-term contract means this could just be the beginning.

Then there's the obvious attraction of Mahomes vs. Brady. The 43-year-old quarterback has built a legacy on winning titles, and he has the opportunity to either add to his impressive resume or have Mahomes take his place as the league's top contender every year.

All of this should mean a hyped Super Bowl that will have plenty laying down some wagers to make proceedings more fun. As we head closer to the game, here's what the latest line looks like from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Date: Sunday, Feb. 7

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Odds: Kansas City -3

Over/Under: 56.5 points

As is tradition, the Super Bowl offers all sorts of wagers, from the color of the Gatorade bath for the winning coach to whether there will be a fat-man touchdown. But the simplest bets are the classic spread and over/under.

The Chiefs enter the game as three-point favorites, which shouldn't come as a surprise. They have proved they can win in the postseason with their current core and won a regular-season game against the Bucs 27-24.

Although the line is relatively close, most people are backing the Chiefs to be victorious. A survey of 108 ESPN experts found 81 picking the Chiefs.

Noted ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell is taking the Chiefs largely because he was burned by betting against Mahomes in last year's Super Bowl.

"To be right, I had to spend the entire Super Bowl LIV watching every single Chiefs snap counting on Mahomes to not do something magical," Barnwell wrote before picking the Chiefs to win 31-24. "That was torturous. There's no fun in that, and I swore to myself that I wouldn't do it again if (or when) the Chiefs made it back to the Super Bowl."

Mahomes has proved to be a difficult player to root against. The Chiefs were down 20-10 at halftime in last year's Big Game before the quarterback led his team to a 21-0 final quarter to win the game 31-20.

Barnwell also noted that the Bucs, like the Niners last season, have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. While that's usually a deciding factor in games, there's no denying that Mahomes is a special player, especially with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as part of his arsenal.

The MMQB's Albert Breer is also picking the Chiefs (30-28), largely on the back of a stellar performance from Mahomes. Breer highlighted the fact that Mahomes has covered his team's shortcomings going into big games already this season:

"Mahomes has the ability to erase things the way Brady did when he was at his peak. He can erase holes created by injury or attrition (see: an AFC title game mostly without both his tackles and Sammy Watkins), he can erase the strengths of other teams and he can erase bad stretches of football."

For Kansas City to win, he's going to have to make up for injuries once again. The Chiefs are expected to be without starting tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz on Sunday. The potential holes in protection are a common reason for those picking the Bucs to come through.

Former Houston Texans executive and NFL Network analyst Charley Casserly is picking the Buccaneers to win 30-27. He's also predicting the Bucs front registers four sacks on Mahomes, who has been taken down just once throughout the playoffs.

Tampa Bay's pass rush has to be taken into consideration in this one. Although the Chiefs' quick game is a force to be reckoned with, so is the Bucs front. They were fourth in the league in sacks this season. Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul are a talented duo coming off the edge, and the Chiefs will have to get creative to combat that.

By the same token, that same defense was torched by Tyreek Hill in Week 12 as he had 269 yards on 13 catches and three touchdowns.

In that game, the Chiefs were reliant on turnovers to keep the Tom Brady-led offense in check. They picked off the future Hall of Famer twice to win the turnover battle. It's a bit cliche, but there's a good chance turnovers will once again be the difference. Both offenses have plenty of weapons, and both are piloted by tremendous quarterbacks, so the margin of error is thin.

That bodes well for the Chiefs, as Brady is coming off a three-interception game against the Green Bay Packers. Mahomes hasn't thrown a pick in either of his postseason games and only has one game all season with more than one.

Mahomes will be under duress without his starting tackles, but getting pressure to him hasn't always guaranteed turnovers. The same can't be said for Brady this season, which could be the difference.

This game could get surprisingly defensive.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 23

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