What Will Be the Next Blockbuster MLB Trade After Nolan Arenado Deal?

The 2020-21 Major League Baseball offseason is already chock full of blockbuster trades, but there may yet be more to come.

Most recently, the seemingly impossible happened Monday when the Colorado Rockies traded superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals. The deal is living proof that the remainder of his $260 million contract wasn't immovable after all.

With spring training rapidly approaching hopefully somewhere in the near future, time is running out for teams to make more blockbuster deals before the 2021 season begins. But at this rate, there are still possibilities aplenty.

Recapping This Winter's Blockbuster Trades

• Dec. 7: Los Angeles Angels acquire RHP Raisel Iglesias from Cincinnati Reds
• Dec. 8: Chicago White Sox acquire SP Lance Lynn from Texas Rangers
• Dec. 24: Washington Nationals acquire 1B Josh Bell from Pittsburgh Pirates
• Dec. 29: Padres acquire SP Blake Snell from Tampa Bay Rays
• Dec. 29: Padres acquire SP Yu Darvish from Chicago Cubs
• Jan. 7: New York Mets acquire SS Francisco Lindor and SP Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland
• Jan. 19: Padres acquire SP Joe Musgrove from Pirates in three-team trade also involving Mets
• Jan. 24: New York Yankees acquire SP Jameson Taillon from Pirates
• Feb. 1: St. Louis Cardinals acquire 3B Nolan Arenado from Colorado Rockies

First of All, What's With All the Blockbusters?

See that list up there? That indeed is one heck of a list.

Between Lynn, Bell, Snell, Darvish, Lindor and Arenado, it contains players who've already proved themselves as All-Stars and major award contenders. Among the others, Iglesias and Carrasco have each pitched at an All-Star level in the past, and Musgrove and Taillon have that kind of upside in the future.

As to why this offseason has been so filled with blockbuster trades, the state of the free-agent market likely has something to do with it. This winter's class of free agents was a mixed bag to begin with, and it only got weaker after aces Marcus Stroman (here) and Kevin Gausman (here) accepted qualifying offers.

Once that happened, the selection of available players was notably short on top-of-the-rotation starters outside of Trevor Bauer and impact position players not named George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu and Marcell Ozuna—the latter of whom is frankly a bat-only player at this point.

Knowing that, it's perhaps little wonder teams turned to the trade market to fill needs in those areas.

There's also, of course, the financial state of the game.

As you may have heard, the coronavirus pandemic forced MLB to shorten its 2020 season from 162 games to only 60. Though necessary, the decision reportedly cost the league about $3 billion in revenue, which has naturally pushed many teams into cost-cutting mode.

David Dermer/Associated Press

That's particularly relevant to the deals of Snell, Darvish, Lindor/Carrasco and Arenado. Though each of their former teams might have held on to them for the sake of contending in 2021, they were apparently more spooked by those players' eight-figure salaries than they were enthused about their playoff odds.

As far as buyers are concerned, there's always more salary certainty with big-name trade chips than with big-name free agents. Whereas the latter are free to push for future payouts to their liking, the former are either already set in stone or limited by the arbitration process. For reasons mentioned above, that kind of predictability may have extra value to buyers this winter.

This is also no time for buyers to be reluctant to part with young talent. Teams have been perhaps guilty of overvaluing prospects in the past, but that was before the 2020 minor league season was canceled. Especially for those who didn't play in any actual games last year, many prospects are in a sort of value purgatory right now.

Mind you, this is merely an attempt at a CliffsNotes explanation for all the blockbuster deals we've seen this winter. And it's not as if the floodgates are all the way open as some of the players whose names have popped up on the rumor mill are likely staying put.

These Trade Chips Could Be Hard to Pry Loose

Even after the Cubs traded Darvish to the Padres before the new year, there was still speculation that third baseman Kris Bryant or catcher Willson Contreras could also leave town.

That's not so easy to imagine now. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has pushed back on rumors regarding both Bryant (here) and Contreras (here), and he's recently fortified the roster around those two through free-agent deals with right-hander Trevor Williams and outfielder Joc Pederson.

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

It's likewise even harder to imagine the Houston Astros trading shortstop Carlos Correa or the Philadelphia Phillies moving ace Zack Wheeler than it already was.

Though there was a stir when their names appeared on the rumor mill earlier in the winter, the pushback from their clubs (see here and here) came swiftly. Both the Astros and Phillies have also been busy lately with the former re-signing Michael Brantley and the latter re-upping with Realmuto and Didi Gregorius.

A fork can also be stuck in the notion that Cleveland will follow its trade of Lindor with a trade of 2020 American League MVP runner-up Jose Ramirez. Even we thought about it, but it was always a long shot—even more so now after Cleveland's agreements with Cesar Hernandez and Eddie Rosario.

Elsewhere, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Oakland Athletics aren't shopping third baseman Matt Chapman or first baseman Matt Olson. And while Brandon Belt, J.D. Martinez and Wil Myers appeared on MLB.com's Mark Feinsand's list of potential winter trade chips back in September, there's been nary a peep about any of the three.

This is not to say, however, that this winter's blockbuster trade well has run dry.

These Trade Chips, On the Other Hand...

For instance, the Rockies may not be done yet even after they effectively entered into a rebuild by trading Arenado.

They still have star shortstop Trevor Story, whose looming free agency after 2021 is merely one reason for him to shut down whatever extension overtures the Rockies make. They could otherwise seek takers for German Marquez, an underrated pitcher who's owed just $34.4 million through 2023.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

In Cincinnati, the Reds might see the Cardinals' and Cubs' latest maneuvers as an excuse to alter their direction. If so, they could follow their trade of Iglesias with deals of aces Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo or third baseman Eugenio Suarez, each of whom (here and here) has popped up in trade chatter.

Also in the National League Central, the Milwaukee Brewers are still listening to trade inquires on ace closer Josh Hader, according to the latest from Robert Murray of FanSided. Their supposedly "overwhelming" asking price for him is certainly a hurdle, but perhaps not an insurmountable one.

There would seem to be fewer likely trade chips in the American League, where things generally seem more settled than in the Senior Circuit. But the Rays might still move defensive-whiz center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, and the Rangers still have an appealing trade chip in slugger Joey Gallo.

Our Best Guess: Trevor Story to the Reds

Do the Rockies want to trade Story right now? Probably not given that the Arenado trade isn't going over so well with the locals.

Yet if Story makes it clear to Rockies management that he will absolutely, positively not sign an extension, trading him now while his value is at a relative peak would be the best thing for both him and the team.

As for where he might go, at least one team out there badly needs a shortstop and has also previously had its eyes on Story: the Reds.

They might seem like a counterintuitive fit in light of the rumored availability of Gray, Castillo and Suarez. They're nonetheless coming off a playoff run, and putting Story at shortstop—a position that produced minus-0.1 rWAR in 2020—would put them in a position to pursue yet another postseason berth in 2021.

In exchange, the Rockies could seek a package headlined by former top prospect Nick Senzel and additional pieces.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.