Ranking Every NFL Team by Its Trade Ammunition for 2021 Offseason
The 2021 NFL trade market could be unlike anything we've seen in recent memory.
The Los Angeles Rams have already agreed to send two first-round picks, a third-round pick and quarterback Jared Goff to the Detroit Lions for veteran signal-caller Matthew Stafford. That may be just the beginning. A half-dozen (or more) starting quarterbacks could have new homes by the time the 2021 season begins.
Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson also wants out. If the Texans relent and trade him, it'll be unprecedented. A top-five player at the game's most important position never gets traded in his prime.
To pull off a blockbuster trade, teams need ammunition. Draft picks are good. Early draft picks are even better. And if they're willing to deal a veteran player in the prime of his career (or an aging star), that helps as well.
With only a few days remaining until the curtain falls on the 2020 campaign and the trade market goes bananas, let's take a team-by-team look at who has assets to sell, who's in a buying mood and which teams will more likely than not be standing pat.
32. Los Angeles Rams
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Heading into last offseason, the Los Angeles Rams had the least trade ammo of any team in the NFL.
This year, things are even worse.
In acquiring Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions in exchange for 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, a 2021 third-round pick and Jared Goff, the Rams made an exceptionally bold play to improve under center. This has been their M.O. in recent years, as they haven't made a first-round pick since selecting Goff in 2016.
But in addition to losing a third-rounder in this year's draft, Rams general manager Les Snead won't have any first-round picks to dangle in trades until 2024.
The Rams are also projected to be more than $30 million above the salary cap. That suggests Stafford will be the last major improvement they make to their roster until Round 2 of this year's draft.
31. Seattle Seahawks
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The teams ranked toward the bottom of the list largely either had a successful season in 2020 or recently made a big trade that has depleted their assets.
The Seattle Seahawks fit into both categories. Even if they still had a first-round pick, it wouldn't be until 23rd overall since they won the NFC West in 2020.
However, that Seahawks first-round pick belongs to the New York Jets as part of the Jamal Adams trade. In fact, Seattle doesn't have a selection inside the top 50 and has only one pick inside the top 100, as it also sent its third-rounder to New York in the Adams deal.
Seahawks general manager John Schneider isn't exactly rolling in cash with which to make a splash move, either. Seattle is projected to be slightly over the salary cap at the moment.
Adams was the Seahawks' defensive MVP in 2020. But as the cost comes due on that trade, Seattle won't be making any big additions in 2021 without mortgaging the future to do so.
30. Kansas City Chiefs
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In 2017, the Kansas City Chiefs made a franchise-defining trade. They dealt the 27th overall pick, a 2017 third-rounder and a 2018 first-round pick to the Buffalo Bills for the 10th overall selection.
They used that pick to draft a young quarterback out of Texas Tech named Patrick Mahomes, which appears to have worked out fairly well.
Chiefs general manager Brett Veach isn't likely to take a similarly aggressive approach this offseason. The Chiefs are projected to be $19.5 million over the cap, so they can't afford to add notable players without some serious cost-cutting.
Kansas City also isn't loaded with draft capital thanks to its recent success. Depending on how Super Bowl LV plays out, the Chiefs will pick either 31st or 32nd this year. They are currently sitting on selections in Rounds 1-5, while they owe their sixth-rounder to Tennessee due to a trade during last year's draft.
However, the losses of cornerback Kendall Fuller and edge-rusher Emmanuel Ogbah in free agency last year should land the Chiefs a few Day 3 compensatory picks.
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29. Pittsburgh Steelers
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It wouldn't be an offseason without trade speculation, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are no exception. In recent weeks, the Steelers have been linked to Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, and a move up into the top 10 of the 2021 draft.
But if history is any indication, Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert isn't likely to make any blockbuster moves.
The Steelers may make a modest trade, like the swap of Day 3 picks with the New York Jets that got them veteran linebacker Avery Williamson during the 2020 season. But whoppers like the one that landed them safety Minkah Fitzpatrick or their move up to draft linebacker Devin Bush in 2019 have been relatively rare during Colbert's tenure.
Pittsburgh also isn't exactly flush with ammunition to use in a prospective deal. It has seven picks in April's draft, but only one of those selections is inside the top 50. The Steelers are also in the NFL's fourth-worst position cap-wise, as they're sitting at $35.1 million over the projected cap for 2021.
28. Green Bay Packers
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Let's get one thing out of the way: The Green Bay Packers aren't trading Aaron Rodgers. If there were any chance of that happening, they would top this list since the offers for the likely 2020 MVP would be absurd.
But with Rodgers off the table, the Packers aren't likely to be active on the trade market.
With Green Bay in full win-now mode, it isn't likely to shop many veteran players. The Packers are also roughly $32.7 million over the projected salary cap for 2021, so if they could find a trade partner willing to take on the salary of someone like edge-rusher Preston Smith, that can't be ruled out.
The Packers' most likely trade scenario in 2021 is one that plays out repeatedly on the second and third days of the draft every year. Green Bay should have 10 picks in this year's draft after compensatory selections are awarded, so a move up in the middle rounds should be doable.
However, only one of those picks sits inside the top 60, so an early-round jump would likely mean expending assets in future years.
27. Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills swung one of the bigger trades of 2020, sending four picks to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Given that Diggs led the NFL in both receptions (127) and yards (1,535) and the Bills advanced to the AFC Championship Game, it appears to have been a wise investment.
However, don't go looking for the Bills to make another splash deal in 2021.
At present, the Bills are over the cap by about $6.3 million. That makes adding payroll problematic, especially with cornerback Levi Wallace and linebacker Matt Milano about to hit free agency and Buffalo staring down the barrel of an extension for quarterback Josh Allen that could average upward of $40 million per season.
Bills general manager Brandon Beane also doesn't have attractive trade bait to offer. The Bills won't be on the clock until the 30th pick of Round 1 and aren't expected to pick up any compensatory selections.
It's fixing to be a relatively quiet offseason in western New York.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aggressively overhauled their roster last offseason, and those moves paid off with a Super Bowl LV appearance.
But the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers will probably look similar in 2021 to the team that will play the first "home" Super Bowl on Sunday. Outside of the NFL draft, it won't be easy for Tampa Bay to make big changes in the offseason.
That isn't to say it can't be done. Playing with Tom Brady is a nice selling point, and Tampa is in good shape relative to the salary cap. The Buccaneers have $24.4 million in cap space, the seventh-most in the league. However, they also have a number of notable free agents, including Chris Godwin, Shaquil Barrett and Lavonte Davis.
Tampa's arsenal of draft picks is relatively untouched. The Buccaneers don't have a sixth-rounder, but they have two selections in the final round. They're also projected to receive a few Day 3 compensatory selections thanks to their free-agent losses of Breshad Perriman and Beau Allen last offseason.
The Bucs could afford to part with a Day 2 pick for a veteran upgrade, which explains why Tampa Bay has been mentioned as one of the top trade partners for Houston should it decide to move on from J.J. Watt.
25. Chicago Bears
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The Chicago Bears have been aggressive on the trade market under general manager Ryan Pace. They traded up to draft quarterback Mitchell Trubisky in 2017 and then dealt multiple first-round picks to the Raiders for edge-rusher Khalil Mack the following year.
Neither of those trades worked out especially well, but that hasn't dampened speculation that the Bears could make a play for Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt or for quarterback Deshaun Watson.
The question is how they would pull off a major move.
The Bears are projected to be roughly $10.7 million over the cap, and that isn't taking into account pending free agents like Trubisky and wide receiver Allen Robinson. They have only six picks in 2021, and while they should add a pair of compensatory picks, those are expected to be low-value sixth-rounders.
To get Watson, the Bears would likely have to deal their first two picks in each of the next two drafts and add a young starter on defense like linebacker Roquan Smith. And even that might not be enough to get it done.
The Bears need a quarterback. But shooting for the top shelf will mean an all-in mortgaging of the future.
24. Tennessee Titans
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The Tennessee Titans made the postseason again in 2020, but they were eliminated in the Wild Card Round thanks largely to a defense that ranked 28th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed.
Improving that defense has to be Tennessee's No. 1 priority in the offseason, but doing so on the trade market won't be easy.
The Titans are projected to be over by about $7.6 million, so they'd have a tough time taking on a hefty salary for a player like New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
There's also the matter of the compensation required to make such a deal. The Titans are in line to add a third-round compensatory selection thanks to the free-agent loss of offensive tackle Jack Conklin, which will give them eight overall and four in the first three rounds.
But with glaring weaknesses at both edge-rusher and cornerback, quantity may be as important for the Titans on the first two days of the draft as quality.
23. Arizona Cardinals
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The Arizona Cardinals made arguably the biggest trade of the 2020 offseason, bringing star wideout DeAndre Hopkins over from the Houston Texans. That deal paid off, but the deck is stacked against Arizona going back to the trade well again this year.
For starters, the Cardinals aren't exactly flush with draft capital. They owe their fourth-round pick to the Texans as part of the Hopkins trade. Arizona does have picks in the first three rounds (beginning at No. 16), but it has only five total picks and isn't expected to receive any compensatory picks this year.
The Cardinals also aren't in position to add a lot of salary. Although they're projected to be under the cap, they have only with $9 million and change to spare, which would make a spending spree difficult.
Given their in-house free agents—including cornerback Patrick Peterson, running back Kenyan Drake and edge-rusher Haason Reddick—just keeping the band together in 2021 will be difficult enough.
22. Indianapolis Colts
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If the Indianapolis Colts are involved in a big offseason trade, they'll all but certainly be buyers. They have a massive hole under center in the wake of Philip Rivers' retirement, and they were one of the teams that reportedly made a run at Matthew Stafford.
That didn't pan out, but there are still some potential options available. The Texans likely won't deal Deshaun Watson inside the division, but Sam Darnold (Jets) and Carson Wentz (Eagles) are possibilities.
Adding the payroll that comes with a veteran quarterback won't be an issue for the Colts. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have more room under the cap than Indy's $64.7 million.
The sticking point will boil down to compensation. Beginning with the 21st overall pick, the Colts have only one pick in each of the first seven rounds. And given the number of teams ahead of Indianapolis in the draft that also need a quarterback, the chances of a high-end rookie falling that far aren't good.
If the Colts want to take a swing on a quarterback, it's going to cost them one way or another.
21. Los Angeles Chargers
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The Los Angeles Chargers appear to have found their quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert. But that hasn't stopped them from being mentioned in Watson-palooza as a potential landing spot for the Texans quarterback.
The Bolts have also been mentioned as a potential trade partner for Baltimore Ravens offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr., Houston edge-rusher J.J. Watt, and a trade up in the 2021 draft for Oregon tackle Penei Sewell.
The Chargers have slightly less than $20 million in cap space in 2021, which should leave room to add at least one veteran player. Philip Rivers' departure last year should land the Bolts a third-round compensatory pick, which would give them nine picks in total, starting at No. 13 overall.
But trading up far enough in the draft to get Sewell would likely be an expensive endeavor, and it's doubtful the Ravens would part with Brown for less than that first-round pick.
So it comes down to how badly L.A. wants to upgrade the production in front of Herbert.
20. New York Giants
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On ESPN's Get Up, analyst Dan Orlovsky said the New York Giants need to take a run at making the biggest trade of a generation.
"If I was Dave Gettleman of the New York Giants, I would take Daniel Jones, I would take Saquon Barkley and I would take three first-round picks and call Houston and not allow them to get off the phone with me," Orlovsky said.
Just about every team in the league has been at least tangentially linked to Deshaun Watson over the past few weeks. But the Giants appear to be one of the more unlikely suitors given the Texans' presumptive asking price for Watson and the presence of Jones under center in New York.
That isn't to say the Giants won't make a trade involving a veteran. There has been some speculation that they could try to net a Day 2 pick for 26-year-old tight end Evan Engram.
But they're more likely to make a move during the NFL draft, where they have six picks, beginning with No. 11 overall.
19. New Orleans Saints
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The New Orleans Saints are in trouble.
Not only does the possible retirement of Drew Brees hang over them like a dark cloud, but no team is in worse shape financially than the Saints. They're projected to be roughly $101.7 million over the cap, which is almost $50 million more than the next-closest team (the Philadelphia Eagles).
Given that dire financial situation, the Saints might be wildly underrated here. If Brees (as anticipated) calls it a career, a fire sale of veteran assets could follow. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network told Pat McAfee that he would "not rule anything out" with regard to a trade involving star wide receiver Michael Thomas in an attempt to shed salary and amass draft picks.
The Saints should receive a compensatory third-rounder for the departure of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, and they've been active in moving up and down the board in recent drafts.
But the Saints are far more likely to be sellers than buyers on the trade market out of necessity.
18. Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns own the 26th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft. It's the lowest that they've selected since 1995, and as such, they might be a bit less likely to be active on the trade market this offseason.
However, Cleveland is sitting on a nice haul of picks. Thanks to trades with the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles, the Browns have extra picks in both Round 3 and Round 4. That gives Cleveland general manager Andrew Berry six picks in the first four rounds and four in the top 100.
Berry could also have an ace up his sleeve if he's willing to trade star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
After tearing his ACL last year, Beckham's trade value isn't what it was. But he's still a 28-year-old receiver with five 1,000-yard seasons and three Pro Bowl nods in seven years. There would likely be a robust market for Beckham if Cleveland puts him on the block.
The Browns could also clear nearly $16 million off the cap by dealing Beckham, and they wouldn't eat a dime in dead-cap charges.
17. Cincinnati Bengals
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The Cincinnati Bengals could be buyers on the trade market, which is both unsettling and indicative of just how big of an impact rookie quarterback Joe Burrow had on the long-suffering franchise.
When Burrow tore his ACL in November, it ruined the Bengals' season. But as the losses piled up, their draft status improved.
For the second year in a row, the Bengals will pick in the top five. And for the second year in a row, they have an obvious top target with that pick.
In 2020, it was Burrow. This year, it's a protector for the young quarterback in Oregon tackle Penei Sewell.
However, Sewell could easily be taken ahead of No. 5, which could motivate Cincinnati to move up a spot or three to grab the best lineman in the class.
With more than $30 million in projected cap space, the Bengals could also look to upgrade the weapons around Burrow by swinging a deal for a veteran pass-catcher like Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. The Bengals have eight picks in the upcoming draft, including three in the top 75.
16. New England Patriots
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Life comes at you fast in the NFL. Just ask the New England Patriots, who have gone from the greatest dynasty in league history to an afterthought with the worst outlook of any team in the AFC East.
Only three teams have a bigger war chest than New England's projected $58.5 million, so help could be on the way. But a lot of that cash will go toward patching holes.
The Patriots are as bereft of skill-position talent as any team in the league, and quarterback remains a massive question mark. And while they're picking higher than they have in quite some time (No. 15 overall), they also lost a third-round pick as punishment for recording the Bengals sideline.
There's also the matter of Matthew Stafford reportedly asking to be traded anywhere but New England. That perhaps suggests veteran players may bristle at playing for the no-nonsense Pats now that deep playoff runs are no longer an annual certainty.
If there's a silver lining here, it's that New England is projected to get one third-round compensatory pick and two fourth-rounders. One or more of those could be included in a trade package.
So could 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who has long been the subject of trade speculation. However, Gilmore's down 2020 season and hefty contract limits the return New England can reasonably expect to get for the 30-year-old.
15. Washington Football Team
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I know, I know. We're just over halfway through, and you're already sick of hearing about Deshaun Watson.
But where trade talks are concerned in Washington, the conversation has to focus on the uncertain situation under center. And there's no denying that Watson is the crown jewel of the signal-callers who might be dealt.
Washington doesn't have the extra first-round picks to throw around this year that the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets do. And after winning the NFC (L)East in 2020, Washington won't be on the clock until No. 19.
But Washington also has also has at least seven picks in each of the next two drafts. And if the Texans are genuinely seeking defensive starters as part of a Watson megadeal, the WFT has the youth and depth up front in players like Matt Ioannidis, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne to make that work.
If nothing else, Washington has the assets to make a run at a second-tier signal-caller via trade, including the fifth-most cap space ($35.1 million) in the NFL.
14. Dallas Cowboys
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The Dallas Cowboys are the source of offseason drama every year, and 2021 promises to be no different. But it's unlikely that a trade will drive that drama.
At first glance, the Cowboys appear to be in decent enough position relative to the salary cap to add a veteran. But their $13.9 million in wiggle room dries up quickly (and then some) when you factor in the impending free agency of quarterback Dak Prescott.
Whether it's through the franchise tag or an extension, they're all but certain to re-sign Prescott. And that's going to be pricey.
Dallas could look to shed salary and add draft picks by dealing a high-priced veteran like running back Ezekiel Elliott. But with Elliott coming off the worst season of his career and carrying a $13.7 million cap hit in 2021, there likely won't be a robust market for his services.
By virtue of a disappointing 6-10 season, the Cowboys also have a top-10 pick in this year's draft. Once compensatory picks get awarded, they could wind up with 10 picks in total, which at least puts them in good position to move up and down the board in April.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
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The Las Vegas Raiders have just seven picks in the upcoming draft (beginning with No. 17 overall) and aren't expected to gain any when compensatory selections are added. They also don't have the financial resources to add a bunch of salary, as they sit about $10.5 million over the projected cap in 2021.
However, that might not stop them from being active on the trade market.
As part of a potential pursuit of Deshaun Watson, the Raiders are reportedly listening to offers for quarterback Derek Carr, according to Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. One NFL insider told Bonsignore that he believes Vegas could receive quite the haul for the 29-year-old passer, who threw for 4,103 yards and 27 touchdowns this season.
"It could get to two first-round picks," the insider said. "He's not Stafford, but he's younger and he has a fair contract, so I could see two number ones."
The Raiders would then use those first-round picks in a megadeal with the Texans for Watson.
Carr isn't a superstar, but he's relatively young and is under contract through 2022. If the Raiders are serious about listening to offers, they should receive some intriguing ones.
12. Minnesota Vikings
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The Minnesota Vikings were active on the trade market last offseason, swinging a deal for edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue.
That Ngakoue is in Baltimore says a lot about how the 2020 campaign played out in the Twin Cities.
The deal for Ngakoue cost the Vikings their second-rounder in 2021 (and a conditional pick in 2022). But after shipping him to the Ravens and making some other deals, the Vikings are sitting on 10 picks in April's draft—beginning with No. 14. Add the four compensatory picks the Vikings are projected to receive, and general manager Rick Spielman has the capital to pursue a move up the draft board.
Minnesota could also ship out a veteran player to add even more draft picks. Reports just before the trade deadline last October indicated both wide receiver Adam Thielen and safety Harrison Smith could be available, and there has been recent speculation that even quarterback Kirk Cousins could be on the move.
That last one isn't especially likely given Cousins' salary. But this could be a very eventful offseason in Minnesota nonetheless.
11. Carolina Panthers
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The Carolina Panthers don't necessarily jump out as a team that would be exceptionally active on the trade market in 2021. But as Albert Breer reported for The MMQB, the Panthers were among the clubs that made a concerted play for Matthew Stafford—one that included the team's first pick in the 2021 draft.
That Detroit passed on a top-10 selection now for two picks as likely as not outside the top 20 later was a very Lions thing to do. But I digress.
That No. 8 pick is the biggest weapon in Carolina's trade arsenal this year, but it isn't the only one. The Panthers don't have a ton of cap space—just $7.1 million. But in an NFL where almost half the league's teams are over the projected cap, that's better than it sounds. The team sent its seventh-rounder to the Buffalo Bills for tackle Marshall Newhouse, but outside that, the Panthers maintain their full complement of 2021 picks.
If Carolina is going to play Let's Make a Deal, it will be with draft picks—the team's veteran players with real value to other franchises also happen to be the sort of contributors the Panthers would be loath to part with.
10. Denver Broncos
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The Denver Broncos were reportedly one of the teams that inquired about Matthew Stafford. But according to Benjamin Allbright of KOA, the Broncos balked at an asking price that included multiple picks, wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and quarterback Drew Lock.
Still, the fact that the Lions inquired about Stafford makes them an interesting team to watch on the trade market—in no small part because they have the assets to make tempting offers.
There's Lock, a young quarterback with 18 career starts who still has two years left on his rookie deal. It once would have been viewed as heresy, but former Broncos QB Brian Griese speculated on CBS4 that the team should include star edge-rusher Von Miller in a Deshaun Watson deal. Denver also has nine picks in this year's draft, including one inside the top 10 and two inside the top 50.
Throw in just over $15 million in cap space, and new Broncos general manager George Paton has the resources to be aggressive on the trade market.
And as it happens, 9News' Mike Klis reported Watson is open to continuing his career in Denver.
9. Baltimore Ravens
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The Baltimore Ravens usually pick toward the back end of Round 1, and 2021 is no different, as they'll pick 27th. The team is also short a third-rounder after acquiring edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue during the season last year, although that blow is lessened by the fact that Houston's hiring of David Culley as head coach will land the Ravens third-round compensatory picks in 2021 and 2022.
But it's possible the Ravens could be sitting on an immensely valuable trade chip—in the form of offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr.
With Ronnie Stanley out with an ankle injury in 2020, Brown moved to the left side and played well enough to earn a Pro Bowl nod. Now Brown is entering a contract year, and the 24-year-old doesn't appear to be especially interested in going back to right tackle.
That fired up the speculation machine regarding a potential trade—one that would net the Ravens quite the haul given Brown's age, talent level and premium position.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
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One player looms above all others when discussing the trade ammo available for the Philadelphia Eagles: quarterback Carson Wentz.
Dating back to the regular-season finale, reports have circulated that Wentz wants out of Philadelphia after a miserable 2020 season that saw him post the worst numbers of his career and clash with former Eagles head coach Doug Pederson.
While appearing on Philadelphia radio station 97.5 The Fanatic (h/t Brandon Lee Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation), ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Eagles are indeed willing to listen to offers for the five-year veteran.
"If a team makes the right offer, there will be a trade that will be made," Schefter said. "But if a team doesn't make the right offer, I think that they will be open to bringing him back and having him compete in camp with Jalen Hurts. So, to me, it could go either way."
The Eagles have quite a few holes to fill on both sides of the ball, which makes the package of picks Philly could receive in a Wentz trade all the more appealing. And while Wentz struggled in 2020 and his contract is an obstacle, we're talking about a 28-year-old quarterback who was playing at an MVP level not that many years ago.
There will absolutely be teams that believe they can turn Wentz around.
The 2021 quarterback carousel is beyond wild.
7. San Francisco 49ers
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You know what's even wilder than trading a quarterback who recently helped lead a team to the Super Bowl?
Also trading a star edge-rusher. And multiple first-round picks.
That's what some are speculating the San Francisco 49ers might do after a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV turned into an injury-ravaged 6-10 mess of a 2020 campaign.
Bay Area radio station 95.7 The Game speculated the Niners' offer for Deshaun Watson could include multiple first-round picks and 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa.
Of course, were the Niners to obtain Watson, that would make Jimmy Garoppolo expendable as the team attempted to recoup some of the pile of picks a Watson deal would involve.
It's possible none of that will happen—that the Niners will start the 2021 campaign with Garoppolo under center, Bosa rushing the passer and a new 12th overall pick making an impact for the team.
But the mere thought that the Niners would make such drastic moves slots the team near the top of this list.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
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If the Jacksonville Jaguars wanted to, they could rank right at the top of this list. All it would take is putting the first overall pick in the 2021 draft on the market.
However, the odds that will happen are approximately the same as me hitting the Powerball this week. It would take an absurd offer to get the Jaguars to walk away from the opportunity to draft a generational prospect at quarterback in Clemson's Trevor Lawrence.
However, even if the first pick isn't available, the Jags still have plenty of weapons in their draft-day arsenal. By virtue of the trade that sent Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville also has the 25th pick. When Day 2 of the draft begins, the Jaguars will go on the clock first. The Yannick Ngakoue trade netted the team an additional second-rounder as well.
All told, the Jaguars have 11 picks in this year's draft, including four inside the top 50. Throw in the most salary-cap space in the NFL (a whopping $73 million), and new head coach Urban Meyer and new general manager Trent Baalke have no shortage of resources to work with.
5. Atlanta Falcons
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After a miserable 4-12 record, big changes are coming for the Atlanta Falcons. There's a new general manager in Terry Fontenot and a new head coach in Arthur Smith.
And depending on how aggressive Fontenot wants to be about remaking the roster, there could be a lot of new faces heading to town.
The silver lining to that four-win season is it landed the No. 4 pick. The Falcons will also have one of the first selections on Day 2, which could carry lots of value if a coveted player slips out of the first round. The Falcons are also expected to land four compensatory selections, although the first of those picks likely won't come before Round 5.
Where things could get interesting is if the Falcons go all-in on a rebuild. Quarterback Matt Ryan has an MVP season and Super Bowl trip on his resume, although at 35, he's several years older than Matthew Stafford, 32, so the return likely wouldn't be as large. Julio Jones is one of the best wide receivers of his generation.
If the Falcons are serious that one (or both) could be dealt for picks, then Atlanta could be one of the hubs of offseason activity in 2021.
4. Detroit Lions
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That the Detroit Lions are embarking upon a rebuild under new head coach Dan Campbell and new general manager Brad Holmes isn't news. Detroit is seemingly always rebuilding.
But this rebuild has some big differences compared to recent offseasons in the Motor City.
For the first time since 2008, the Lions enter the offseason with a starting quarterback who isn't Matthew Stafford. Given how much cheese Jared Goff will earn over the next couple of years, Detroit's starter will all but certainly be Goff, who will try to turn around his career after falling out of favor in Los Angeles.
The trade that sent Stafford to the Rams also landed the Lions a boatload of draft capital—although it will be a little while until Detroit sees the meat of it. In addition to a third-round selection in 2021, the Lions got extra firsts in 2022 and 2023, which could enable Detroit to make a move up the board this year or next.
The salary-cap situation in Motown isn't as rosy—the Lions are less than $2 million under the projected cap in 2021, and with prominent players like wide receiver Kenny Golladay and edge-rusher Romeo Okwara set to hit free agency either this offseason or next, Detroit's not well-positioned to add salary.
3. Miami Dolphins
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When it comes to draft-day wheeling and dealing (or bringing in a veteran starter), the Miami Dolphins could be a force in 2021.
When the Dolphins began their rebuild in 2019, the team held a fire sale. Veteran players such as safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil were shipped out of town to procure as many high picks as possible.
That strategy netted Miami two additional first-rounders last year, which, along with its own pick, the team parlayed into quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, offensive tackle Austin Jackson and cornerback Noah Igbinoghene. The Dolphins also showed marked improvement, going from 5-11 in 2019 to 10-6 in 2020.
They could give that rebuild yet another turbo boost in 2021. The Tunsil deal brought the Dolphins Houston's first- and second-round picks this year. After a miserable 2020 campaign in Houston, the Texans first-rounder turned into the No. 3 selection.
That leaves Miami with four picks inside the top 50 in 2021 and two inside the top 20. That capital, combined with $23.7 million in cap space (eighth-most in the league), gives the Dolphins the resources to buy big on the trade market.
2. New York Jets
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The Adam Gase era was an ugly one for the New York Jets. But with the installation of former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh as head coach, there's renewed optimism in the Big Apple.
That optimism could be accelerated quite a bit—if the Jets want to be aggressive about remaking the roster.
For starters, they are set up to be major players in the 2021 NFL draft. Much to the chagrin of some fans, the 2-14 team won just enough in 2020 to lose the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes to the Jacksonville Jaguars. But Gang Green is still sitting on two Round 1 picks in part thanks to the Jamal Adams trade—Nos. 2 and 23. New York also received Seattle's first-rounder in 2022 and an extra third-round selection this year.
There's a reason the Jets are getting a lot of run as a potential landing spot for Deshaun Watson.
That's not all. With just shy of $63.5 million in cap space, the Jets have more than enough financial wiggle room to add a veteran. If New York does make a big play to trade for or draft a quarterback, fourth-year pro Sam Darnold would likely become available. There's also been quite a bit of speculation that young defensive lineman Quinnen Williams could be used to sweeten the pot in a megadeal.
It could be one heck of an offseason for Jets GM Joe Douglas.
1. Houston Texans
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Not that long ago, the Houston Texans would have checked in much lower on this list. Houston's first-rounder in 2021 (the No. 3 pick) went to Miami as part of the Laremy Tunsil trade.
But that was before the news that superstar quarterback Deshaun Watson wants out of Houston rocked the franchise to its foundation.
The Texans have maintained publicly that Watson isn't going anywhere, with new general manager Nick Caserio telling reporters, "We have zero interest in trading the player."
Of course, that he also called Watson "the player" shows how frosty things have become.
If the 25-year-old gets dealt, it will be an unprecedented trade—a top-five player at the NFL's most important position just entering the prime of his career. Per John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, the bidding for Watson's services starts at two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two young defensive starters.
Watson isn't trade ammunition—he's a weapon of mass destruction. A player capable of instantly remaking an entire offense.
But given the expected sad state of the Texans once he leaves, the team's reeling fanbase will have a hard time getting excited about the bonanza of picks he'll bring in—even though a Houston team that won't pick until Round 3 in 2021 can use all the picks it can get.
If three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt gets traded (or released) as well, it will be a stunning purge for the 2019 AFC South winners.
Salary-cap data and compensatory pick information courtesy of Over the Cap.
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