Super Bowl 2021: Chiefs vs. Bucs Favorite and Betting Odds from Las Vegas

Super Bowl LV is now only a week away. In exactly seven days, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs will do battle for the biggest prize in football, the Lombardi Trophy.

This will be a historic Super Bowl for multiple reasons. Firstly, it will mark the first time in the game's history that a team hosts the Super Bowl in its home stadium. Secondly, it will mark the 10th Super Bowl appearance for Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady.

No other quarterback has started more than five Super Bowls. Brady can also become the first quarterback to win Super Bowls in two different conferences. Peyton Manning is currently the only quarterback to start and win Super Bowls with two different teams.

Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs will have a little something to say about Brady winning anything next Sunday. They have their own premier quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, who has a league MVP and a Super Bowl MVP on his three-year resume as a full-time starter.

Which quarterback and team does Las Vegas favor in this matchup? Let's take a look at the latest odds and over/under from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

When: February 7, 2021

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: CBS, CBS All Access

Line and Over/Under: KC -3.5, 56.5

Money Line: KC -167, TB +148

Prediction: Kansas City 31, Tampa Bay 28

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

While the Chiefs were three-point favorites for much of the past week, the line at the time of writing has widened ever so slightly.

Three points was a fine starting point, as this was the margin of Kansas City's 27-24 regular-season victory over Tampa. It's not a shock to learn that the money has pushed the line toward Kansas City, as the Chiefs have only lost one game with Mahomes as the starter this season.

However, Mahomes could have his hands full with Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and the rest of the Tampa pass rush. Starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been out since Week 6 with a back injury, and starting left tackle Eric Fisher was lost for the year to a torn Achilles in the AFC title game.

"That loss of Fisher is, I think a really, really big deal, this time of year," former NFL quarterback Jordan Palmer said, per Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star.

It won't help that the Buccaneers have a fierce pass rush without the need to blitz. Mahomes faced a similarly strong front against the Miami Dolphins, and he threw three of his six 2020 interceptions in that game.

Tampa also boasts the league's best run defense—in both yards and yards-per-attempt allowed—which will likely put pressure on Mahomes to carry the offense.

Therefore, it shouldn't be a surprise if the Buccaneers defense is able to keep this one within a field goal.

Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean that a close game will favor Tampa Bay. Brady and the Buccaneers offense will have to avoid their own mistakes to come out on top—and Brady is coming off a three-interception game against the Green Bay Packers.

Kansas City has its own capable pass rush, led by Chris Jones and Frank Clark. They can make it necessary for Tampa to lean more heavily on Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II and the ground game.

Look for the Buccaneers to try shortening the game and controlling the tempo with the run, while the Chiefs attack Tampa's 21st-ranked pass defense with weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. This should lead to a fair amount of scoring, even with plenty of defensive talent on the field.

There's a good chance that this game hits the over and perhaps an even better chance that the team holding the ball last will walk away with the Lombardi Trophy.

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