Predicting Boldest Roster Moves for the 2021 NFL Offseason

Risk defines the NFL's boldest moves. 

When the Houston Texans shipped DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals last offseason, the bet blew up in their face and resulted in a four-win season and fired coaching staff, resulting in drama that will lead to further bold moves this offseason. 

When the Buffalo Bills went all-in by trading for Minnesota Vikings wideout Stefon Diggs, it helped spur a Josh Allen breakout en route to the AFC title game. 

Looking ahead to this offseason, the boldest moves will mostly center on the quarterback position given the likely unprecedented amount of turnover set to happen. Bold moves feature teams willing to roll the dice on aggressive changes that are just as likely to backfire as they are to succeed, be it trades, re-signings or cuts.

Dialing in on the biggest names, let's outline some of the boldest projected roster moves.

Buccaneers Re-Sign Shaquil Barrett

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers smartly slapped the franchise tag on edge-defender Shaquil Barrett after he erupted for 19.5 sacks while playing on a one-year deal worth $4 million. 

Barrett understandably regressed in 2020, recording just eight sacks over 15 appearances. His pressures likewise regressed from 51 to 42, as did his Pro Football Focus grade by seven points down to 70.7. 

But that might not stop the Buccaneers from making Barrett the highest-paid edge-rusher in football. 

Tampa Bay is off to the Super Bowl, and if Tom Brady returns next season, the front office should still intend to spend whatever it takes to contend. Rather than having to pay up to replace Barrett's production while another team helps him reset the market, look for the Buccaneers to hit him with an extension that tops Khalil Mack's average annual value of $23.5 million. 

That's a huge amount of money for a veteran who regressed after one anomaly of a season, but so goes the price of keeping a championship core together.

Cowboys Hit Dak Prescott with a Second Franchise Tag

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A 6-10 effort showed the world Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys need to sign Dak Prescott to an extension. 

Other things went wrong for the Cowboys, of course, but losing Prescott to top it all off won't work. He was arguably enjoying the best campaign of his career before a dislocated ankle ended his season, as he posted a 68 completion percentage with 1,856 yards and nine touchdowns against four interceptions. 

But when onlookers expect Jones to zig, he tends to zag—look at the $90 million he threw at running back Ezekiel Elliott, owner of six fumbles in 2020. 

The smart play would be a long-term extension, as teams don't usually stumble into fourth-round success stories like this at quarterback. But the length of an extension was the impasse between Prescott and the team last time, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.

Now factoring in the injury and potentially not wanting to pay Prescott roughly $40 million per year (which would be second only to Patrick Mahomes), Jones could opt for a shocking second franchise tag, which would check in at $37.7 million.

Cleveland Browns Trade Odell Beckham Jr.

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The Cleveland Browns had a breakout season in 2020, surging to the playoffs on the strength of an explosive Baker Mayfield-led offense. 

An offense that didn't include Odell Beckham Jr. after Week 7. 

Upon arriving in Cleveland in 2019, Beckham posted a 1,000-yard season but needed 133 targets to do so. An injury-shortened 2020 campaign saw him post just 319 yards and four total touchdowns before Mayfield led the Browns to six wins over their last nine games on the way to a victory over the 12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card Round. 

Translation: Beckham is expendable and an appetizing trade candidate. He has a $15.8 million cap hit in 2021 and is under contract through 2023, so the Browns might be comfortable taking the best offer and running. 

Look for a team with ample cap space such as the Jacksonville Jaguars ($70 million) to eat the contract at an affordable trade value in hopes a change of scenery squeezes more out of Beckham in a presumed No. 1 wideout role. 

Colts Trade for Carson Wentz

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The Indianapolis Colts sit in a tough spot after Philip Rivers' predictable fade into retirement. 

Luckily for the Colts, the loss happened during what could be a historic offseason for quarterback movement. 

And one familiar name might be available: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. 

Colts coach Frank Reich oversaw two of Wentz's pro seasons as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator, including a year in which he threw for 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions in an MVP-caliber campaign. He might be available via trade after completing 57.4 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and a league-leading 15 interceptions, losing snaps to Jalen Hurts before the Eagles underwent a coaching change this offseason. 

The big hiccup in any Wentz trade conversation is a contract that features a $59.2 million dead-cap number in 2021, but the fact that the Colts are sitting on $68.7 million in cap space and have a big need at the most important position of all could move the needle. 

With the notion that a strong offensive line, better surrounding pieces and a reunion with Reich could revive Wentz, the Colts would likely be comfortable sending Philly a draft pick in exchange for the 28-year-old 2016 No. 2 overall pick and a contract with an out built into it after one season.

49ers Cut Jimmy Garoppolo

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The San Francisco 49ers could quietly be plotting one of the major shocking moves on the market thanks to the situation with Jimmy Garoppolo, meaning his inability to stay on the field and his so-so play when on it. 

Garoppolo, playing on a five-year deal worth $137.5 million, has made double-digit appearances just once over his three full seasons with the 49ers. He threw just seven scores and five picks over six games in 2020, once again hinting he's not the game-changer he's paid to be. 

With a team-leading cap hit of $26.4 million, the idea that the 49ers could save $23.6 million by cutting Garoppolo gives them the incentive to pull a shocker. 

It would take some serious courage by the 49ers to trailblaze a new path under center while still looking to contend, but it's a bold move made a little easier by the fact that this offseason should feature plenty of possibilities for bringing a quality starter on board.

Patriots Trade Up for a QB

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The New England Patriots pulled a predictable Bill Belichick-type move this past offseason by backing into Cam Newton in free agency. 

But acquiring a former MVP late in the process didn't pan out as some might have expected. The Patriots won just seven games while Newton was slow to adjust, throwing eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions over 15 games. He added 592 yards and 12 scores as a rusher, but things just never fully clicked. 

Belichick doesn't seem like one to play the waiting game again. 

With four quarterbacks looking like first-round selections this year, the Patriots could elect to leap from No. 15 into the top 10 should one of them slip to five or later. The Cincinnati Bengals' fifth pick would be a sweet spot for a trade up, as the Bengals have Joe Burrow and can afford to wait on an offensive tackle or wideout by moving back. 

Such a move would be costly and likely require New England to relinquish next year's first-rounder and more. But if everything falls into place, landing Zach Wilson or Trey Lance after Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields come off the board could right the ship in a hurry.

Lions Trade Matthew Stafford to 49ers

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Speculation turned to reality recently when NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported the Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford have agreed to part ways this offseason. 

No shock there, as Stafford is 32 years old and would probably like to suit up for a contender, not start over again with a different coaching staff. With a dead cap of $19 million weighed against his $33 million cap hit, Stafford is more trade candidate than cut candidate. 

And this is where the 49ers come back into play. 

With Jimmy Garoppolo's cap hit off the books, plus a little more creativity to make things work overall, the 49ers can afford to bring on Stafford. Not that the trade cost would be cheap, but getting a prime Stafford who just threw for 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on a bad team is a franchise-changer. He's also only under contract through 2022, when he has a cap hit of $26 million with a $6 million dead-cap number. 

Stafford paired with breakout rookie Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in an offense orchestrated by Kyle Shanahan has the smell of an instant contender.

Texans Trade Deshaun Watson to Jets

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The Houston Texans made a series of critical missteps that led to a seemingly irreparable divide between the team and franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson. 

The aforementioned DeAndre Hopkins trade, overseen by head coach and general manager Bill O'Brien, was one piece of a perplexing puzzle that now also includes the process used to pursue a new head coach and GM. ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported Sunday that Watson won't change his stance no matter what happens with the head coaching vacancy, so the hiring of David Culley on Thursday wouldn't seem to alter his opinion—and so far, it hasn't. 

That leaves the Texans in the unenviable position of losing a 25-year-old elite passer and more than half the league at least considering picking up the phone. 

From the sound of it, the New York Jets could be the big winners of the fiasco in Houston. According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, Watson prefers the Jets over all other destinations. 

The Jets and new head coach Robert Saleh should be all over it, too. Shipping multiple first-rounders, including the second pick this year, in exchange for one of the NFL's best signal-callers and trading Sam Darnold, the third overall pick in 2018, to the highest bidder seems like a no-brainer. 

The Jets would still have their work cut out for them to surround Watson with talent, but the third-highest cap number before a trade and the sudden attractiveness of New York as a destination for free agents could yield a rapid turnaround. For the Texans, it's a brutal lesson in many ways, though potentially entering the 2021 draft with the second pick after losing the third to Miami via trade is a decent starting point to getting back on track.