B/R Expert Predictions for the College Football National Championship Game
It all comes down to this: 12-0 Alabama vs. 7-0 Ohio State to crown the next undefeated college football national champion.
Alabama is all too familiar with this stage, boasting a 5-2 record in the past 11 national championships. The Crimson Tide missed the College Football Playoff last year, but evidently, that just made them mad enough to go undefeated.
Ohio State did win the inaugural College Football Playoff, though, and it knocked off Alabama in the semifinals—in what was the only meeting between these elite programs in the past quarter-century. Moreover, the last two times Alabama made it to the title game with an undefeated record, it lost.
Which strain of history will repeat itself in Miami on Monday* night?
How many points will these offensive wrecking balls put on the scoreboard?
Can anyone stop DeVonta Smith? Or Trey Sermon?
Bleacher Report's college football experts—David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Joel Reuter and Brad Shepard—convened for one final panel of predictions for all those questions and more.
*Provided the game is actually played on Monday and not postponed because of COVID-19. We will not miss needing to put that asterisk on everything for the past nine months.
Over/Under 75.5 Total Points Scored by These Dynamic Offenses?
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Adam Kramer
Under. But to be clear, I don't think we'll be served a meat grinder of a football game. I don't envision the final score being 20-7. Given the talent on both sidelines and the sheer explosiveness alone, there are going to be points.
That said, it wouldn't shock me to see both offenses try to slow things down.
For as fast and explosive as both groups can play, keeping the ball out of the other's hands for as long as possible—something Notre Dame attempted to do against Alabama—is a sound strategy. Each offense could score quickly and tear this prediction to shreds, but I think it would make sense for each to deliver long drives that chew clock.
My concern in picking the under? It's obvious. The talent here is historic. I have concerns over the status of Justin Fields—how could you not after watching that hit?—but there are so many fun players and pieces in this game, especially on that side of the ball.
There will be points. Plenty of them. Just not 76 of them.
Kerry Miller
I've got to go with the over.
Alabama's defense has not fared well against teams with a vertical passing attack. We kind of forgot about it for a while when the Crimson Tide were beating up on Mississippi State and Kentucky, but the SEC championship against Florida was a vivid reminder of how feasible it is to get chunk gains through the air on Alabama's D. And the Sugar Bowl showed how much damage Justin Fields and Co. can do with the deep ball.
And it's a similar story when Alabama has the ball.
Ohio State's secondary was adequate against lackluster offenses, but Clemson, Indiana and Penn State all threw it with relative ease when the offensive line was able to keep the pass rush at bay. Alabama's O-line hasn't allowed more than two sacks in a game since relenting three against Georgia, and those came during a game in which Mac Jones still threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns.
Alabama's 45-40 win over Clemson in January 2016 and the classic USC-Texas Rose Bowl in 2006 were the only times in BCS/CFP championship history that the title game eclipsed 75 points. This game will join that club, though.
Over/Under 1.5 Total Turnovers, and Who Wins That Battle?
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David Kenyon
I'm predicting one turnover each, so that's over 1.5 with no winner in the ever-important turnover battle.
Alabama had one giveaway in every game all season until the semifinal win over Notre Dame, so it's completely reasonable to expect it. Ohio State, similarly, coughed up the ball at least once in six of its seven games.
The unknown status of Justin Fields is a key part of this conversation, of course. After taking the crushing hit against Clemson, he didn't scramble as often. I am not a medical expert, so I have no opinion on his theoretical health for the title game. Hopefully, he's close to full strength. But if he's limited as a runner for any reason, a few more pass attempts could be problematic.
If he needs to scramble, it's because a play broke down and pressure is coming. Throws under pressure are riskier, and that many more higher-risk pass attempts would be concerning.
But hopefully, Fields' health won't be an issue.
Kerry Miller
Alabama committed exactly one turnover in each of its first 11 games of the season, and I think this ball-hawking Ohio State defense (18 turnovers forced in seven games) will manage to force and recover one fumble.
It won't be Najee Harris, though.
The should-have-been Heisman finalist only lost one fumble all season, and even that one (against Ole Miss three months ago) was a fluky play at the goal line during which the referees easily could have ruled that his forward momentum was stopped before he was stripped. Rather, it'll be someone random like Brian Robinson Jr. or Slade Bolden, who perhaps tries to do a little too much with one of his three or four touches in the game.
But Alabama will win this battle and secure the over by forcing two turnovers—one that causes a huge momentum swing in the first half and an interception late in the fourth quarter when Ohio State starts getting desperate and takes bigger risks.
Will There Be a 350-Yard Passer for Either Team?
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Adam Kramer
I don't believe Justin Fields will throw for 350 yards in this game. Could he? Of course. We saw at the very least it's possible when Florida torched this Alabama secondary in the SEC Championship Game. Quarterback Kyle Trask and his assortment of weapons connected for 408 passing yards.
So can it be done? Yes. Would I be surprised if Fields eclipsed that kind of yardage? Absolutely.
Mac Jones has a chance at reaching this mark, but I believe he'll fall just short.
One thing that became apparent during Ohio State-Clemson is that the Buckeyes secondary has, well, holes. A magnificent effort from the defensive line helped temporarily mask them, but they are there.
This is an Alabama passing game that may welcome back the services of wideout Jaylen Waddle. That would be spectacular. (For Alabama. Less so for Ohio State.) But even if Waddle doesn't play, this passing game is still ripe with options.
Jones has hit 350 yards or more in six of 12 games his season. He could absolutely get there. If you watched Alabama this season, you know the potential is always there for an enormous play. I just think he'll come up a bit short.
Kerry Miller
As long as neither quarterback gets injured, I'm going to say yes. Both Mac Jones and Justin Fields might reach that threshold, though I'm significantly more confident Jones will get there.
Jones has had six games with season with more than 380 passing yards, and his average output for the year is 336.3. Fields did just go for 385 a week ago, but that's the first time he surpassed 320 in his career.
Ohio State's defense has allowed at least 400 passing yards twice already this season, and it's only played seven games. Alabama's secondary does have occasional issues, but it has been mostly solid, holding nine of 12 opponents below 270 passing yards. Florida was the only one to surpass 400, and I suspect Ohio State will be more committed to the run in this game than the Gators were at any point this year.
And who knows what sort of physical condition Fields is going to be in after the body blow he took in the Sugar Bowl. It was difficult enough to believe he was able to finish that game, but now that the bruising and such has set in, can we really expect him to be anywhere close to 100 percent?
That isn't to say there's no way Fields throws for 350 yards. He could. But Jones is more of a sure thing for this question.
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Will There Be a 125-Yard Rusher for Either Team?
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Brad Shepard
With the way Najee Harris and Trey Sermon have looked lately, both have the chance to get to that mark on Monday.
But that's not a slam dunk.
As mediocre as these defenses have been, they've combined to allow just two 100-yard rushers all year, and both came when Alabama played Ole Miss. The Rebels had Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy hit the mark in a loss.
But running the ball is the Buckeyes' game, and Sermon will need to take some of the pressure off his quarterback with a big game on the ground.
Will he reach the 331 yards he had against Northwestern or even the 193 posted against Clemson? That's doubtful. But Sermon is going to be a factor in this game, and Alabama needs to find a way to contain him.
Kerry Miller
Both Najee Harris and Trey Sermon have racked up at least 125 rushing yards in each of their last two games, but I'm going to say no.
Save for that wild game against Ole Miss earlier this season, Alabama has not allowed an individual player to rush for more than 115 yards in a game since Georgia's Nick Chubb in October 2015.
And it's not like the SEC hasn't had some great running backs in the past five years. As we saw with Kyren Williams rushing 16 times for 64 yards in the Rose Bowl, the Crimson Tide can buckle down against a star rusher.
Ohio State has had significantly more defensive lapses than Alabama had in the 2015-18 window, but in the past two seasons, the only two players to eclipse 85 rushing yards against the Buckeyes were Trevor Lawrence (107 in last year's Fiesta Bowl) and Jonathan Taylor (148 in last year's Big Ten championship).
If anyone is going to pull it off, I would have to guess it'll be Harris. Sermon has been hot lately, but Harris has a much longer track record. However, I don't see either one hitting 100 yards, let alone 125.
Does Will Reichard Finish off a Perfect Kicking Season?
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David Kenyon
Other than against Florida, Alabama hasn't played a game within 15 points this season. That trend has allowed the Tide to keep their specialist out of the spotlight, which—as a former kicker myself—I know is completely ideal anyway.
I want to say the streak of perfection continues, but now my good pal Kerry has brought the dreaded announcer jinx on poor Will Reichard.
No, Kerry. I won't allow it.
Let's try this instead: Reichard will miss every attempt. It'll be the worst game of his career, including a dreadful 22-yard shank in the fourth quarter as Alabama trails by two points. He'll be remembered as the kicker who cost the Crimson Tide a national championship.
Is that enough of a counter-jinx? Kickers are people, too!
Kerry Miller
Oh, David. I'm not trying to jinx anyone. But can it really be a national championship game without a #CollegeKickers moment?
Just about the only thing that went wrong for LSU in last year's title game was Cade York missing a 45-yard field goal. In the previous year's national championship, both Alabama and Clemson missed an extra point. And Bama's Andy Pappanastos missed two field goals from inside 40 yards in the final game of the 2017-18 season.
But Reichard is a perfect 90-of-90 this season and has connected from as deep as 52 yards. Unless they attempt some sort of "Well, might as well give it a shot" kick from outside his comfort zone as the final play before halftime, I expect him to remain flawless.
If there is going to be a botched kick, it will most likely come from Ohio State, which is just 6-of-10 on field-goal attempts this season.
All the same, I couldn't possibly pretend to be surprised if the kicking game rears its ugly head as the Achilles' heel of an otherwise unstoppable Nick Saban team. We've seen that movie a few times before.
Which Individual Player Records the Most Receptions?
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Joel Reuter
The obvious answer is obvious for a reason.
Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith leads the nation with 105 receptions and 1,641 receiving yards, and he has led in receptions (either tied or outright) in eight of the 12 games he has played this season.
Ohio State has a great cornerback in Shaun Wade, but Florida's Kaiir Elam is awfully good in his own right. Smith lit up the Gators for 15 receptions and 184 yards in the SEC title game.
The potential return of Jaylen Waddle could mean fewer targets for Smith, but the more likely outcome is that he serves as a valuable decoy while keeping the Ohio State safeties from cheating over on Smith.
Ohio State receiver Chris Olave has 24 receptions and 372 receiving yards in the team's last three games, and if the Buckeyes fall behind early, they could wind up throwing the ball a ton. He's definitely worth a mention. Still, I fully expect the best receiver in the nation to close out his Alabama career with one last big game.
Kerry Miller
I wrote this question, and I immediately regret my decision to not frame it as: Will DeVonta Smith make the most receptions? Because with all due respect to Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and John Metchie III, it really is a "Smith or the Field" situation.
And I simply must go with the Heisman winner as I suspect he's about to go out in a blaze of glory.
Smith already has four games this season with at least 11 receptions for more than 160 yards, and he made at least six catches in all but one game.
It's not like Ohio State has a lockdown corner to put on him, either. We thought before the season that Shaun Wade might be the star of this defense, but he has had a rough go of it this year.
As a result, Ohio State allowed eight receptions for 144 yards and three touchdowns to Penn State's Jahan Dotson, seven receptions for 218 yards and three scores to Indiana's Ty Fryfogle and eight catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns to Clemson's Cornell Powell. It's not hard to envision Smith ending the night with 10 grabs for 190 yards and a pair of scores.
Which Defensive Player Will We Be Talking About All Night Long?
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Brad Shepard
I'm going to go with Shaun Wade here, and it's not in a positive light.
When Jeffrey Okudah left for the NFL, Wade shifted over to the field corner side from guarding the slot, and, well, it hasn't gone great. Now he is going to have the unenviable task of going up against DeVonta Smith and Co.
(If Jaylen Waddle can get on the field, that's going to be an even bigger ask for Wade and the Buckeyes secondary.)
No matter how good Clemson's defensive backs were last year, they couldn't hang with LSU's talented receivers once they got in the title game, and that theme could repeat this year. Mac Jones is going to pick on Wade and his teammates throughout the game.
Kerry Miller
Narrowly edging out the "What happened to Shaun Wade?" talk that will come during Alabama's passing frenzy, I'm going in a more positive direction by saying Alabama's Dylan Moses will be the game's defensive star.
For a guy who entered the season as a highly touted draft prospect returning from a torn ACL to the best team in the country, I'm stunned at how infrequently I've heard Moses' name thus far this year. It's not like he has been invisible. He has made 70 tackles, recorded an interception against Mississippi State and forced a fumble in the SEC championship (though Florida got it back).
But I think he'll be a major contributor in the middle of the defense against a team that runs a lot of slant routes and has a mobile quarterback. Well, Justin Fields is usually pretty mobile, though it's hard to predict how much he'll be willing to scramble with his injuries.
Moses will also stand out on at least a couple of tackles of Trey Sermon, who has been virtually untackleable in recent games.
Which Player Scores the Game's First Touchdown?
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Joel Reuter
The Alabama defense has allowed just four touchdowns and 37 total points in the first quarter all season, so that alone says the smart money is on a Crimson Tide player being the first to cross the goal line.
Running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith have both tallied seven first-quarter touchdowns on the year, and I'd expect the Crimson Tide to try to establish the running game early with so much attention likely to be heaped on Smith (and potentially Jaylen Waddle?) in the passing game.
So my pick is Harris.
That said, it's not the most exciting choice considering he leads the nation with 24 rushing touchdowns and 27 total touchdowns, so I'm also going to make a dark-horse "In case the Buckeyes get the opening kick and score right away" pick: OSU tight end Jeremy Ruckert.
The massive 6'5", 253-pound junior has caught just 12 passes all season, but he has found the end zone five times, including twice in the Sugar Bowl against Clemson.
Kerry Miller
If you've read my responses thus far, you've presumably been able to infer that I'm picking Alabama to win.
But here's a fun fact: The losing team scored the first touchdown in five of the last seven national championships. And if we tweak that to "first offensive touchdown," it's actually six of the last seven.
I was already operating under the assumption that Ohio State would get out to a fast start before Alabama makes some adjustments and imposes its will during the final three quarters. That little nugget of information just further convinced me the Buckeyes will score first.
Here's another fun fact: Chris Olave leads the Buckeyes in touchdowns with seven, but he was not the first person to score in any of Ohio State's games. In five of the seven games, it was a rushing touchdown. So give me Trey Sermon. While I don't think he comes anywhere close to the rushing totals he has posted in his last two games, he'll punch one in to punctuate Ohio State's opening possession.
Will Alabama or Ohio State Be Crowned the National Champion?
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David Kenyon: Alabama wins 41-30. Ohio State put together a great defensive game against Clemson, but I'm concerned about the secondary's ability to handle DeVonta Smith in a Steve Sarkisian-called offense. Smith is simply a different caliber of receiver than what the Buckeyes have faced, and Sarkisian will be far more effective than Clemson's emergency play-caller, Brandon Streeter. Ohio State will move the ball often, but not enough to match Alabama's scoring pace.
Adam Kramer: It will be Alabama. It won't be a blowout, but it won't be an all-timer that comes right down to the wire, either. Just a tremendous team ending the year in incredible fashion.
Kerry Miller: Ohio State was way more impressive in the Sugar Bowl than I could have imagined, and that performance did initially make me waver a little bit. But I'm picking Alabama to win and cover. Even without accounting for the possibility of Jaylen Waddle returning to the field, the Crimson Tide are just too good on offense, and I can't see Ohio State keeping pace for 60 minutes. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman, but Mac Jones will be the offensive MVP of a 49-37 Alabama victory.
Joel Reuter: The Buckeyes answered the question of whether they deserve to be in the playoff with a decisive win over Clemson, but Alabama has been in a league of its own all season. Justin Fields, Trey Sermon and the Ohio State offense is good enough to put up points, and the Buckeyes defense will keep things from getting too out of hand. But I fully expect Alabama to be in total control from start to finish. Final score: Alabama 41, Ohio State 28
Brad Shepard: Of all the recent Alabama teams, this one may be the most potent offensively, and I don't think offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian getting the Texas gig will impact this team at all. While both defenses are suspect, I'm not sure if Justin Fields can will his team to enough points to hang with the Crimson Tide. It's going to be a good football game, but ultimately, I see Alabama making too many plays through the air against Ohio State's secondary and winning 41-31.
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