Unlikely MLB Trades That Would Change Everything for 2021 Season
A little less than a year ago, the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers partnered on one of the most consequential trades in recent MLB history.
Boston, strapped for cash, elected to send former American League MVP Mookie Betts and veteran left-handed starter David Price to Los Angeles in exchange for infield prospects Jeter Downs and Connor Wong and young outfielder Alex Verdugo.
From the Red Sox's perspective, Betts was in his final year of arbitration and offered the best chance to slash payroll and acquire value before hitting the open market.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, got a generational superstar. Los Angeles promptly inked him to a 12-year extension, and Mookie helped the franchise capture its first World Series title since 1988.
One offseason move can sometimes define an entire season. Perhaps the San Diego Padres and general manager A.J. Preller are aware of this after pulling off a stunner to reportedly land Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Blake Snell, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic.
It is a move that reflected a strong desire to alter the complexion of the National League West and the NL at large, as well as one with possibly massive ramifications for this upcoming season and beyond.
Let's take a look at some other unlikely trades that could alter the course of the 2021 campaign. These are perhaps more far-fetched ideas, but they could shift the power landscape in baseball. We considered team fit, depth of the talent pool and a given team's desire to be aggressive in making a splash, among other factors.
Yu Darvish Heads to the South Side of Chicago
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If the Chicago Cubs elect to trade Yu Darvish, they are going to ask for the moon. But their crosstown rivals could make for interesting trade partners.
In 2017, the Cubs sought to acquire a possible ace by sending top prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for left-hander Jose Quintana.
That deal looks more and more like an overwhelming win for the White Sox. But with the roles of buyers and sellers now reversed, is it possible the two sides could look to do business once again?
The White Sox might feel perfectly comfortable with their rotation after trading for Lance Lynn, who gives Chicago a frontline starter alongside Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel. However, adding Darvish to the mix would just about give the White Sox the best rotation in baseball.
Darvish is coming off a 2020 season in which he went 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA and led the National League in fielding independent pitching (FIP, 2.23). His runner-up National League Cy Young performance followed an exceptional post-All-Star break run in 2019.
The Japanese star will be 35 in August but shows no signs of slowing down after adding velocity to the heater this past season, per Baseball Savant. Suddenly, his contract—he's owed a combined $59 million in the next three years, per Spotrac—looks like a pretty good bargain.
It seems likely the White Sox could entice the Cubs if they so desired. Chicago has a strong array of young arms even after moving Dane Dunning to acquire Lynn, including Michael Kopech and Jonathan Stiever.
The Cubs would undoubtedly have interest in Nick Madrigal, as well. He boasts a hit tool of 70, per MLB.com, and also hit .340 in just over 100 at-bats at the big league level last year. The 23-year-old would give the North Siders much-needed prospect depth up the middle, though he also projects as the White Sox's starting second baseman.
Ultimately, the question will be just how much the White Sox are ready to commit to winning immediately.
Acquiring Darvish would send a clear message to other contenders. But considering Keuchel, Lynn (a free agent next year) and Darvish are all well into their 30s, it could also paint a potentially bleak future outlook in terms of the rotation. That could be particularly true if the South Siders have to give up Kopech or Stiever, among others.
The White Sox's championship window looks to be wide open with the amount of young talent on the roster. Still, a crosstown blockbuster could officially shift the balance of power in the Second City and make the South Siders even more legitimate World Series contenders in the immediate future.
Yankees Snatch Up Francisco Lindor
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The New York Mets seem like the better Big Apple club to pursue a Francisco Lindor trade given their deep pockets. Moreover, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported Cleveland "would love to build a trade" with the Toronto Blue Jays.
However, it is not as if the New York Yankees have no path to acquiring the switch-hitting shortstop.
The Bronx Bombers' offseason has been swallowed by the desire to re-sign infielder DJ LeMahieu. Brendan Kuty of NJ.com reported the two sides were more than $25 million apart in contract negotiations. Additionally, both the Mets and Blue Jays appear to have interest in the two-time batting champion and could drive the price up substantially.
But what if the Yankees pivot? General manager Brian Cashman said he feels Gleyber Torres is better suited to play at second base, opening the door for New York to seek upgrades at short.
Failing to re-sign LeMahieu would change the complexion of New York's offseason. The Yankees would have a need up the middle but also might have slightly more spending capital to address the starting rotation. That latter point could be huge in a potential pursuit of Lindor.
Top arms Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt are currently in the rotation picture next year. But one of the two young arms would likely have to be on the table in a hypothetical move for Lindor. If the Yankees cannot re-sign LeMahieu, they might attempt to ink a tier-two starter, thus possibly making either Garcia or Schmidt available in a swap.
There are plenty of considerations to be made here. New York would hope to ink Lindor to a long-term deal, but doing so would put a major weight on future payroll and possibly influence the ability to re-sign Aaron Judge when he hits the open market in 2023.
The Yankees might also prefer to retain their young arms given current rotation needs and Luis Severino's injury history. It never hurts to have starting depth in the system.
In a more immediate sense, however, a Lindor-to-Yankees move could have massive implications for 2021.
Say the Bronx Bombers re-sign Masahiro Tanaka or another mid-rotation starter after acquiring Lindor. They would suddenly have some semblance of rotation depth (pending Severino's eventual return) and a five-tool star at the shortstop position, and that could be a winning recipe.
Cardinals Change Tune, Deal for Nolan Arenado
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The St. Louis Cardinals have not given any indication they are in a position to add a big contract.
Team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said last year the team's payroll was unlikely to increase in 2020. Why would it do so this winter, especially after the Cardinals reportedly lost over $250 million in game-day revenue this past season?
Indeed, the Redbirds declined their $12.5 million club option on second baseman Kolten Wong and non-tendered reliever John Brebbia. They have yet to re-sign franchise favorites Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.
Having said all that, what if the Cardinals change their tune and go after Nolan Arenado? They had discussions regarding the Colorado Rockies' star third baseman last winter, per MLB Network's Jon Morosi, and St. Louis still has the kind of assets to make a deal work...under certain circumstances.
Arenado is owed $199 million over the next six years, and he can also opt out after 2021. The 29-year-old might be more inclined to opt in if he were traded to a consistently competitive Cardinals franchise. But the Cardinals would still force Colorado to eat a huge chunk of money, especially considering they have already partaken in cost-cutting measures.
They could send Matt Carpenter—owed $18.5 million this year with a vested option in 2022—back to the Rockies as part of a salary dump. Prospects like third baseman Nolan Gorman or left-hander Matthew Liberatore would undoubtedly appeal to Colorado.
The question will be whether the Rockies are willing to part with Arenado for a shallow return. But the opt-out after 2021 could force their hand, and they figure to at least try nabbing an impact prospect even it means paying down a decent amount of the veteran's contract.
St. Louis could choose to sit tight and wait for next winter. Dexter Fowler and Andrew Miller will both be off the books, and the team also has a $35 million club option on Carlos Martinez in 2022-23. That's one that will almost certainly be declined, barring something spectacular from the right-hander.
But the Cardinals, 14th in the NL in runs scored and OPS last year, desperately need offense. Moreover, with the Cincinnati Reds possibly selling big and the Chicago Cubs facing tough choices, this could be the time to be aggressive and make a move to grab something of a stranglehold on the NL Central.
If St. Louis can find a way to force the Rockies to eat costs, an Arenado trade would alter the future of the franchise.
Dodgers Go Hard After Josh Hader
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have already added a couple of relief arms this winter in Corey Knebel and Tommy Kahnle, but they're far from finished.
Knebel had a 6.08 ERA last year in his return from Tommy John surgery, and Kahnle is likely to miss the 2021 season after undergoing the same procedure. Considering the Dodgers could lose Blake Treinen, Pedro Baez and Jake McGee, there is more work to be done.
ESPN's Jeff Passan reported L.A. has interest in Liam Hendriks, and it would only be fitting for the Dodgers to pursue the most valuable reliever of the last two years (per FanGraphs) considering Kenley Jansen will be a free agent in 2022.
Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reported the Dodgers have also considered adding former Tampa Bay Rays reliever Ryne Stanek. In other words, general manager Andrew Friedman is considering both high-priced and fringe options.
However, Hendriks and Stanek are both right-handed. Los Angeles will need an impact lefty, particularly if it lets McGee walk. MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported in November the Dodgers had interest in former Cleveland closer and 2020 saves leader Brad Hand, who would make for another excellent addition.
Instead of turning to free agency, what if Friedman were aggressive in a move for Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Josh Hader? Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Brewers "intend to listen" on Hader, adding the Dodgers had previous interest in the two-time NL Reliever of the Year.
Hader is projected to make nearly $5.7 million in his first year of arbitration, no small sum considering what L.A. might have to give up to acquire him.
Yet he still figures to make less in the next three years than either Hendriks or Hand, who each could get multiyear deals, and the difference matters for the Dodgers with Corey Seager and Clayton Kershaw set to hit the open market in 2022.
Los Angeles could call upon its stellar depth of infield talent to offer the Brewers someone like Edwin Rios as part of a package, thus satisfying Milwaukee's need at the hot corner. Perhaps L.A. finally sells high on Keibert Ruiz considering Will Smith is blossoming into a star and Diego Cartaya is another young backstop in the system. It could be worth it to land Hader.
The 26-year-old had a "down" year in 2020 (3.79 ERA) but still converted 13 of 15 save chances and had a 0.95 WHIP. He also ranked in the 90th percentile or higher in exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected batting average and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
Perhaps most importantly for L.A., Hader is deployable as a multiple-inning arm, which would be of tremendous value in Dave Roberts' bullpen.
The Dodgers certainly do not need to make a big move for Hader given the number of quality relievers on the open market. But he would provide a left-handed weapon unlike any Roberts has had in recent years.
Braves Take a Swing at Joey Gallo
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The Atlanta Braves' pursuit of a marquee outfield bat would appear to be more in-house at this stage.
They figure to try their hand at re-signing Marcell Ozuna after the right-handed slugger led the NL in homers (18), RBI (56) and total bases (145) while hitting .338 with a 1.067 OPS.
However, even if the Braves manage to bring Ozuna back amid a crowded market, they might still be in the market for another corner outfielder. Atlanta non-tendered Adam Duvall, who hit 16 homers with an .833 OPS last season. Nick Markakis is a free agent, seemingly opening up a hole in right field.
The Braves could resort to other internal options, though they are not the most appealing.
Top prospect Cristian Pache made his debut in 2020 and might be Ronald Acuna Jr.'s outfield partner for years to come. But Atlanta could hope he gets a bit more seasoning. Austin Riley can play some outfield, though he is also needed at the hot corner and struggling to build at the plate. Ender Inciarte is essentially a non-factor in the lineup.
Is it finally time for general manager Alex Anthopoulos to leverage some of the team's talent to acquire a potential star? Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Texas Rangers right fielder Joey Gallo is likely available, and Atlanta could be in a position to land him.
Not only are the Braves in need of outfield depth, but they must also find a left-handed bat to complement Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies. Gallo has that kind of upside. The 27-year-old struggled at the plate in 2020 with a .181 average and .679 OPS. However, he still ranked in the 90th percentile in barrel percentage, per Baseball Savant.
During Gallo's All-Star 2019 season (.986 OPS), he had career-high marks in average (.253), OBP (.389) and slugging (.598) despite a rise in strikeout rate. He also had a decline in swing rate, showing more of a willingness to hunt fastballs in the zone. But the swing rate rose in 2020 as the walk rate fell, resulting in less than stellar outcomes.
Gallo can be a major run-producer. He has a pair of 40-homer seasons and consistently ranks toward the top of the league in metrics like barrel percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He is also a Gold Glover who led all right fielders in defensive runs saved this past season.
Might Atlanta be enticed into acquiring Gallo, who still has two more years of club control?
The Braves would have to pay a high price but have a bevy of arms—including Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Muller—as well as top outfield prospect Drew Waters. They could almost certainly put together an appealing package for the Rangers.
Adding Gallo would give the Braves more balance in the lineup card and a plus defensive right fielder. That could strengthen their pursuit of a World Series title.
All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, FanGraphs or Baseball Savant, unless otherwise noted. All contract information obtained via Spotrac.
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