Ranking the Most Overrated NBA Teams Since 2000
Before any NBA season begins, everyone from fans and analysts to general managers put together a list of preseason predictions. Sometimes, we end up having a decent idea of what to expect, too.
But in some seasons, a preseason favorite quickly sheds that label and becomes an overrated team.
Now, "overrated" is a subjective term. In the past 20 years, you might consider a super-hyped roster that lost in the NBA Finals to be overrated. But someone else might not. To bring some uniformity, we relied on a few resources to trim the possibilities.
Basketball Reference's list of preseason championship odds and win totals (over/under) provided a base of top-valued teams. Out of that group, we focused on franchises that dramatically underperformed the win total and either missed the playoffs or advanced no further than the first round.
8. 2015-16 Houston Rockets
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Looking back, we understand the Golden State Warriors were on the verge of starting a five-year dynasty. Leading up to 2015-16, though, the Houston Rockets had a 56.5 win total and plenty of buzz as the team to dethrone the reigning champs.
In reality, the Rockets barely made the playoffs. And lost to Golden State in the first round in five games, including three defeats of 26-plus points.
Perhaps it was a fitting end to an ugly season.
Houston fired Kevin McHale as head coach following a 4-7 start. Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley missed some time, but the Rockets lacked a perimeter punch and were bad defensively. Ty Lawson struggled so badly that Houston waived him, and James Harden's actual performance looked much worse than his per-game production.
The Rockets needed a late surge to finish 41-41 and clip the Utah Jazz by a single game for the reward of an unsightly loss to Golden State.
7. 2001-02 Philadelphia 76ers
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During the 2000-01 season, the Philadelphia 76ers lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. They added a few complementary pieces for Allen Iverson and entered the next campaign sharing the third-highest odds to win the league title.
But it quickly became a frustrating year.
Although injuries didn't help, Philly had a highly inefficient offense. Iverson scored an NBA-best 31.4 points per game, but the Sixers ranked 29th in the league three-point shooting, 25th in turnovers and 22nd in overall field-goal percentage.
The Sixers clawed their way into the playoffs at 43-39 but fell to the Boston Celtics in the first round.
6. 2007-08 Chicago Bulls
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This is a good reminder of when "trending up" goes wrong.
After the second three-peat, Michael Jordan retired, and the Chicago Bulls understandably cratered. They steadily climbed out of the NBA's cellar and rejoined the playoff fray in 2004-05 and earned three straight postseason trips.
In 2007-08, the Bulls grabbed attention as a top threat in the Eastern Conference with a core of Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich and Ben Wallace. Chicago held a 50.5 win total and +1000 championship odds, and the annual GM survey pegged the Bulls as the third-most likely East winner.
However, a 9-16 start led to Chicago firing Scott Skiles as head coach and later trading Wallace for a package that included Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes. The Bulls failed to win consecutive games at any point from January to March, stumbling their way to a 33-49 record and no playoff berth.
At least the offseason brought an exciting gift?
Despite holding the ninth-worst lottery odds, the Bulls jumped Miami for the No. 1 pick and selected Derrick Rose. That ensured Chicago would be competitive again quickly.
5. 2005-06 Houston Rockets
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The all-video game duo of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming struggled to propel the Rockets into serious contention. But as the 2005-06 season approached, optimism was high.
McGrady and Yao had guided a 51-win year and forced a seven-game playoff series with an excellent Dallas Mavericks team. Oddsmakers set Houston's over/under at 53 wins, the third-highest mark behind only the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat.
Similar to the 2001-02 Sixers, though, injuries and an inefficient offense doomed the Rockets. McGrady and Yao both missed substantial time, and Houston ended 27th in effective field-goal rate.
The Rockets trudged to a 34-48 record, tying the Golden State Warriors for the third-fewest wins in the Western Conference.
4. 2004-05 Minnesota Timberwolves
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The crushing part of reliving the 2004-05 Minnesota Timberwolves is understanding it would only get worse.
That makes the following juxtaposition a strange one.
Minnesota had never been better. Led by Kevin Garnett, the 1997-98, 1999-2000, 2002-03 and 2003-04 teams all set a franchise record for single-season wins. And in that final season, the T-Wolves snapped a streak of seven straight first-round postseason exits and reached the Western Conference Finals.
But as the co-No. 2 contenders to win the NBA title, the Wolves stumbled to a 25-26 start and fired Flip Saunders. Minnesota fought back into the playoff picture and ended 44-38, but the Memphis Grizzlies grabbed the final postseason spot by a game.
The franchise wouldn't have a winning season for 13 years.
3. 2004-05 Los Angeles Lakers
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After winning three straight titles from 2000 to '02 and reaching the NBA Finals the previous year, the Lakers entered 2004-05 with a new outlook. They traded Shaquille O'Neal to Miami, didn't bring back Phil Jackson as coach and lost Derek Fisher in free agency.
The Lakers still had Kobe Bryant, but the initial year of the Bryant-led era fell significantly short of expectations.
Los Angeles shared the second-best championship odds with the Sacramento Kings and Timberwolves, trailing the Spurs. The Lakers, though, floundered because of an abysmal defense that allowed a league-worst 111.4 points per 100 possessions and, like Minnesota, failed to make the playoffs. Los Angeles finished with a 34-48 record—10 games worse than the Wolves.
Because of health concerns, head coach Rudy Tomjanovich resigned midway through the season. The Lakers ended up re-hiring Jackson before 2005-06 and soon became perennial contenders again.
2. 2007-08 Miami Heat
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In 2005-06, the Miami Heat celebrated an NBA title. The next season, they won the division. Considering that success in preceding campaigns, this was a sudden, remarkable collapse.
Along with a 46.5 win total and +1200 championship odds, the Heat landed 40.7 percent of votes to win the Southwest Division in the annual GM survey. Sure, they weren't the favorite. But the Heat plummeted from a likely playoff team to a 15-67 record.
Fifteen wins.
While injuries plagued the roster—notably, Alonzo Mourning's career-ending knee surgery—Miami generally had Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem and other key pieces available during its the midseason nightmare. In a December to February stretch, the Heat dropped 15 straight, broke that streak, then lost 11 in a row.
Miami dealt Shaq to the Phoenix Suns at the February trade deadline, and Pat Riley resigned as head coach. Spun positively, those changes facilitated the Heat's early 2010s ascent with Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh under Erik Spoelstra.
1. 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers
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While the Big Three of LeBron, Wade and Bosh in Miami opened the 2012-13 season as the favorite, Los Angeles was right there. Oddsmakers listed the Lakers at +275 to win a title with a 58.5 win total.
The roster featured five All-Star players: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace (formerly Ron Artest) along with offseason additions Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. Although the star-studded group only started seven games together, the Lakers typically had at least four of them available.
After a 1-4 start, the team fired Mike Brown. Mike D'Antoni soon stepped in, but the Lakers did nothing better than hover around .500 until the closing month of the year.
And as Los Angeles made a playoff push, Kobe tore his left Achilles in the third-to-last regular-season game. The 45-37 Lakers managed to claim a playoff spot, but the Spurs swept L.A. in the first round.
The Lakers wouldn't crack 30 wins in the next four seasons.
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