2021 NBA Trade Deadline Deals to Dream About
Chris Paul plays for the Phoenix Suns, Russell Westbrook is on the Washington Wizards, and the Oklahoma City Thunder need a team of analysts to count all their incoming first-round picks after a series of about 50 trades in three days.
If you'd laid all that out to someone a few months ago, they wouldn't have been able to fathom how the league had changed so much and so unpredictably.
So don't let anyone tell you a hypothetical 2021 deadline trade is too outrageous to be real. If we've learned anything, it's that you can never underestimate how profoundly the NBA landscape can change in a short period of time.
These trade ideas won't include precise salary-matching math because so much could be different by the March 25 deadline. Consider the proposed deals rough outlines designed to guess at how teams' short- and long-term needs might evolve over the next several months.
And yes, we have to start with James Harden, who's gunning for the title of most obvious trade candidate in NBA history.
James Harden Finally Lands with the Philadelphia 76ers
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Is anyone else having fun imagining that Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey is the former Houston Rockets staffer dishing all the dirt on the toxic state of James Harden's time with the Houston Rockets, driving down the asking price in a hypothetical trade?
There's no evidence to support that idea, but as unfounded conspiracy theories go, it's a good one.
We may not get to dream about this one for long as Harden's deteriorating relationship with the Rockets makes it hard to imagine he'll remain on the roster until the 2021 deadline. If he does, and if the Sixers don't like the look of the Joel Embiid-Ben Simmons pairing after a few months of study, the most logical trade will involve Harden and Simmons with the 76ers throwing in some number of future first-round picks.
That's the most sensible move now, but Philadelphia seems to know it can afford to be patient. The Brooklyn Nets can give the Rockets an intriguing package headlined by Caris LeVert, but Simmons is the best individual asset Houston could realistically acquire. That puts Philly in a powerful position, and it may just be a question of the Rockets' willingness to wait on better offers between now and the deadline.
Chances are, those offers aren't coming.
For this to work, Embiid would have to accept a secondary role, and Harden would need to prove he's in shape and committed. Perhaps most importantly, the Sixers would need to make it clear they aren't going to handle Harden like royalty while the rest of the roster gets the serf treatment. Who knows if he'd be cool with that after a decade of favored-son status?
Every deal has hurdles, but Harden to Philadelphia for Simmons—eventually—has a real fait accompli vibe.
Atlanta Goes for It with Gobert
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According to Porter Larsen of ESPN 700 in Salt Lake City, Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz are a ways apart on extension talks. The supermax, which Gobert wants, can't be offered after the season starts. So with the clock ticking, it's possible the two-time Defensive Player of the Year will enter the 2020-21 season on an expiring contract, putting the Jazz to a decision.
Do they ride it out and risk losing Gobert for nothing in unrestricted free agency, or do they get what they can for him in a trade?
The Atlanta Hawks spent to add scoring this past offseason, but they might decide Clint Capela can't create a top-end defense on his own. Gobert has proved he can.
The deal wouldn't necessarily need to involve Capela on Utah's end as the Jazz have Derrick Favors back for the mid-level exception. That move may well have been insurance for just this situation. But the Hawks would insist on including Capela, and he'd be key to making the money work.
Atlanta could include Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter or Cam Reddish and possibly rookie Onyeka Okongwu. That might not seem like much, but remember the Hawks would be adding an unrestricted free agent in this scenario. You'd assume no deal would get done without an understanding that Atlanta was going to extend Gobert at a pay rate he'd like, but for negotiating purposes, Utah might not be in a position to ask for a monster return.
What will help Utah gin up interest is the breadth of teams that might come calling about Gobert.
Depending on how the start of the season goes for them, the Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Brooklyn Nets and others could have interest. With the 2021 free-agent class losing luster by the day, many teams might decide they'd rather add Gobert and re-sign him than worry about who they might add on the open market next summer.
With Gobert in Atlanta, Trae Young would have the ultimate eraser behind him, plus a useful pick-and-roll weapon on offense. It's an oversimplification, but if it's clear at the deadline that the problem with the Hawks is defense, Gobert would be the most effective solution.
Miami Heat Pivot from the Giannis Plan
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Giannis Antetokounmpo's decision to stick with the Milwaukee Bucks on a supermax extension will change the plans of several NBA teams that set aside cap space to sign him in 2021 free agency, perhaps none more so than the Miami Heat.
All's not lost for the East's 2020 Finals representative as the Heat can still reap the benefits of an offseason that put a premium on future flexibility. Rather than decline the various 2021-22 options they have for Goran Dragic, Andre Iguodala, Meyers Leonard and Avery Bradley, they can use those as matching salaries in a trade for Bradley Beal.
The Washington Wizards should demand Tyler Herro be included as the centerpiece with at least two future first-round picks attached. But from there, the Wizards can take their pick of what'll essentially be expiring veteran salaries. Washington could pick up whatever options it acquires and flip those contracts at the 2022 deadline for more draft capital or decline them and open up space to use however it sees fit.
Miami doesn't have much flexibility with its picks; its first-round selection is encumbered through 2023. But Washington would be wise to set its sights further in the future anyway, seeing as a Beal-Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo core would win plenty of games and produce selections in the 20s.
By 2025, maybe the Heat will have fallen off.
This is admittedly a Miami-centric angle as Beal would give it a dynamite scorer who could play off the facilitation of Butler and Adebayo while also running the show as a playmaker himself. Washington will get tons of quality offers for Beal, who might be the next great white whale on the trade market after Harden relocates. A Herro-based package might not be the best one the Wizards see.
But of the realistic hypotheticals, Beal to the Heat is the most exciting one.
Joel Embiid for Karl-Anthony Towns, Who Says No?
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We're getting way out into fantasy land on this one as the Sixers and Minnesota Timberwolves swap franchise centers.
If you took the human element out of it, there's an easy argument that Towns' elite spacing and offensive punch would open up Ben Simmons' game in ways Embiid never could. Meanwhile, Embiid would give Minnesota a defensive presence who might be potent enough to offset the struggles that'll surely come from giving D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez significant playing time.
Embiid's injury history is a worry, and all Towns' production has yet to translate to consistent team success. Towns is younger and under contract for a year longer, while Embiid has already proved he can dominate playoff series.
Both players have their plusses and minuses, which almost cancel each other out.
The most interesting question about this trade, then, is which organization would have to include sweeteners.
It's tough, right? Maybe this is the purest challenge trade ever imagined as it's not clear which side would feel the need to ask for a little something extra to get the job done. Maybe Embiid's health would give Minnesota a small opening to ask for a pick, but you could just as easily see Philly demanding one because it's surrendering the guy who's dominated on both ends at points of his career.
Barring something totally unforeseen, we'll never get a clear answer. But you've got to admit Embiid for Towns is an intriguing thought exercise—even without considering the added element of their ongoing beef.
Dallas Gets Boldly Opportunistic by Adding Jonathan Isaac
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Jonathan Isaac wouldn't help the Dallas Mavericks this season, but neither would whoever they were going to get with their 2021 cap space. So from a near-term perspective, adding a player who's out for the year rehabbing a torn ACL isn't as reckless as it seems.
It might feel like an out-of-the-box move for a team in Dallas' position to invest in a player with Isaac's injury history. But then, Kristaps Porzingis is part of the current core, and he's far from the picture of health. He'll miss a chunk of 2020-21 while recovering from a torn meniscus, and his next fully healthy season will be his first.
The Mavs clearly aren't afraid of checkered injury pasts.
Isaac's future is even hazier than Porzingis', but that could work in Dallas' favor. Maybe the Orlando Magic are already feeling some nerves about extending him (or facing his restricted free agency in 2021) and would prefer to cut some risk by taking back a 2025 first-rounder and a quality rotation player like Maxi Kleber. Josh Green and Jalen Brunson are also cheap and promising; Orlando could have interest in either of them.
For the Mavs, this would be a bet that Isaac can stay healthy and realize his potential as a perennial DPOY candidate. His length up front alongside Porzingis would be flat-out unfair, and if there's any team equipped to survive on offense with Isaac's suspect scoring and spacing, it's the one led by Luka Doncic and a 7'3" dude firing off threes at volume.
Dallas knows it basically has one more chance to add a third star before Doncic signs his next deal and gets too expensive to allow for a huge addition. Isaac is too risky to peg as that third star, and if it costs Dallas too much in trade assets, or if Isaac's price on his next contract is too rich, the fit wouldn't make sense.
But if the Mavs could essentially stash Isaac for this season, keep him at a reasonable rate and then still go out and add another high-end starter in free agency, that's basically an ideal path to a championship roster.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.
