B/R Experts Answer Biggest College Football Questions for Week 16
After many months of uncertainty, unexpected upsets, calendar chaos and Coastal Carolina bandwagoning, the 2020 college football regular season all comes down to this: conference championship weekend.
By the end of Saturday night, we'll have a pretty good idea of which four teams will be getting a chance to play for a national championship. And about 12 hours later, we'll find out if the College Football Playoff selection committee actually feels the same way. It should be a most entertaining final chapter before we turn the page to bowl season.
What the heck is going to happen, though?
Normally with these predictions, we try to find a few creative ways to hit on a broad array of topics: over/unders, player props, conference-wide questions, etc. Anything to break up the monotony of "Who wins this game? Who wins that game?"
This week, however, we're taking a "Keep It Simple, Stupid" approach with predictions for each of the 10 conference championship games, as well as a quick forecast of the College Football Playoff.
We know there are other games being played, which is highly unusual for championship weekend. But from a national perspective, it's just hard to get excited about, say, Florida State at Wake Forest or Illinois at Penn State when there are infinitely more important games taking place.
So, who wins the 10 championship games? And how will those last few data points impact the final CFP picture? We've been assuming for quite awhile that it'll be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State in one order or another, but is that still what our five college football experts—David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Joel Reuter and Brad Shepard—expect to see in the end?
Who Wins the SEC Championship: No. 1 Alabama or No. 7 Florida?
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Adam Kramer
Alabama. Next question.
Wait. I am being told by my editors that three words for this particular question will not suffice, so allow me to explain why.
It starts with the fact that Florida just lost a game outright as a three-touchdown underdog, in part because someone threw a shoe at the end of a football game. But that moment, while hilarious, is only a small portion of the reasoning here. Frankly, the many plays that came before it weren't particularly great for the Gators. And even in prior weeks, Florida wasn't nearly as sharp as Alabama has been.
That is suboptimal when playing Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris and a defense that has been vastly improved, albeit against limited competition. Nick Saban's team just looks to be more explosive, more talented and flat-out better.
Could Florida quarterback Kyle Trask have another spectacular game and make this weird? Maybe. But it's going to take the best he has, and even that might not be enough.
And now I want to take a moment to hijack this question with one final opinion: Heisman voters, do the right thing. Give DeVonta Smith the Heisman if he has another Heisman-worthy game. You don't have to vote for a quarterback. Give it to the best player in college football. Smith is that person.
Oh, and Alabama by 20.
Kerry Miller
Let me begin by saying some nice things about the Florida Gators because I do really like this team.
The Kyle Trask-to-Kyle Pitts connection has been arguably the best in college football since the Deshaun Watson and Mike Williams pairing in 2016. Pitts is going to be the first tight end to finish top-10 in the Heisman vote since Notre Dame's Ken MacAfee did so in 1977. And for a dude who was overshadowed all season long, Kadarius Toney has been quite fantastic in his own right.
But I think the Gators are going to get smashed in this game because they simply do not have the defense to slow down Alabama.
God bless Lane Kiffin for coming to the SEC and exposing both of these defenses early in the season. Ole Miss put up 613 yards and 35 points on Florida to open SEC play, and then the Rebels kicked it into an even higher gear for 647 yards and 48 points against Alabama two weeks later.
The difference is it was a wake-up call for Alabama, which has allowed just three total touchdowns on defense over its last five games. Florida's defense hasn't gotten much better since that rough start, and that's going to be the difference in a game Alabama wins 45-21.
Who Wins the ACC Championship: No. 2 Notre Dame or No. 3 Clemson?
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David Kenyon
Trevor Lawrence is not some magical cure who can singlehandedly flip this result in Clemson's favor. In the loss at Notre Dame, D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards! It's likely Lawrence won't manage to do that against a strong Notre Dame defense.
But Lawrence's return, along with the return of three defensive starters (Tyler Davis, James Skalski and Mike Jones Jr.) who missed the November game, is the foundation of my Clemson pick.
Notre Dame totaled 208 rushing yards and tallied 5.2 yards per carry in the first game. The only other offense to crack 4.0 yards per attempt on Clemson was Syracuse, and that only happened because of a 61-yard run in garbage time. If the Irish are unable to run as effectively, it forces Notre Dame out of its comfort zone.
Ian Book is a good quarterback and a great scrambler, but an aggressive Clemson pass rush changes the game. And if the Tigers contain ND's running game, that's a bigger deal than Lawrence being under center.
Kerry Miller
Clemson has not been the juggernaut we're used to seeing in recent years.
Late into the third quarter of an Oct. 24 contest, the Orange had a fighting chance to pull off the upset. The following week, Clemson got punched in the mouth early by Boston College before pulling off a comeback win. Sans Trevor Lawrence, the Tigers lost at Notre Dame. And much like the Syracuse game, the regular-season finale against Virginia Tech was a bit of a pulse-raiser until the latter half of the third quarter.
There were certainly stretches in which Clemson looked awesome, even within those games. The Tigers scored the final 20 points against Syracuse, the final 24 against Boston College and the final 35 against Virginia Tech. They also ambushed Pittsburgh with 31 first-quarter points, and they arguably should have won that game against the Fighting Irish.
I do think the Tigers are better than the Fighting Irish, though, and I do think they'll win this game, in part because it is an absolute must-win for Clemson to reach the playoff while Notre Dame is probably going to get in regardless of this outcome. But I expect the game to have some wild swings because of Clemson's season-long tendency to toggle its on/off switch. Clemson 38, Notre Dame 34.
Who Wins the Big Ten Championship: No. 4 Ohio State or No. 14 Northwestern?
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Joel Reuter
After the most recent College Football Playoff rankings reveal, CFP chair Gary Barta caused a bit of a stir when he told reporters there has been "some discussion" about moving Texas A&M ahead of Ohio State and into the No. 4 spot.
I fully expect that to light a fire under the Buckeyes.
The key to beating Northwestern will be limiting turnovers and shutting down the running game. In their loss to Michigan State, the Wildcats were held to just 63 rushing yards on 37 attempts, and they tallied just one takeaway while turning it over four times.
The Ohio State run defense ranks sixth in the nation at 95 rushing yards allowed per game, so that checks one of the boxes.
That puts the game squarely on the shoulders of Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields. He struggled against Indiana earlier this year, throwing three interceptions as Ohio State nearly squandered a 35-7 lead. The Northwestern secondary won't make things easy, but he'll rise to the occasion this time to erase any doubts about whether Ohio State belongs in the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State 35, Northwestern 21.
Kerry Miller
If you're still upset about the Big Ten changing the rules to allow Ohio State to play in this game, I strongly recommend channeling that energy into something more productive.
The six-game threshold was completely arbitrary in the first place, and two of the three cancelations weren't even Ohio State's fault. Now, had the Big Ten changed things to fudge the Buckeyes in ahead of another undefeated team they didn't play, then sure, stay mad online. But tweaking things to put them in front of a team they beat was the best move for the conference to produce its best possible champion.
And Ohio State will be that champion because Northwestern's offense is nothing special. The Wildcats were held below 320 yards in five of their seven games, and they haven't eclipsed 28 points since their opening win over Maryland. Their defense is quite good, but there's just no way 28 points is going to get the job done against Ohio State, which has scored at least 28 points in 18 of 19 games played with Justin Fields.
The Buckeyes will waltz to a 38-15 victory.
Who Wins the Big 12 Championship: No. 6 Iowa State or No. 10 Oklahoma?
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Brad Shepard
This is as close to a toss-up as you can get. The Iowa State Cyclones beat the Oklahoma Sooners 37-30 earlier this year, and they have dropped just one game since the stunning season-opening loss to Louisiana. They come into this championship as one of the hottest teams in the nation.
Then again, so do the Sooners.
Getting running back Rhamondre Stevenson back was a huge boost, and redshirt freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler has improved as the year has progressed. Most importantly, the OU defense has improved considerably, helping the Sooners go on a hot streak of their own.
Yes, head coach Matt Campbell has his troops playing great football, and they're going to be wearing the undefeated black uniforms. But this just feels like a game the Sooners win. They're hot right now, and they're clicking on both sides of the ball.
It should be a high-scoring battle, but Oklahoma will get one extra stop against Breece Hall, Brock Purdy and Iowa State in a 34-32 classic.
Kerry Miller
If Oklahoma wins this game and things get wild in the Top Four—i.e. Ohio State and Clemson both lose—I would have no problem with the CFP selection committee vaulting the Sooners into a semifinal game.
And that's because this has been a completely different team since getting Rhamondre Stevenson and Ronnie Perkins back from their five-game suspensions to start the season. Now they have a legitimate run game and a stronger pass rush, and they have won their last four games by an average margin of 32.0 points as a result.
The Stevenson half of the equation was huge.
Kennedy Brooks opted out, and Trey Sermon transferred to Ohio State. Without Stevenson, the Sooners were painfully one-dimensional with no returning players who carried the ball more than 10 times last year. They averaged 3.8 yards per carry or fewer in all five of those games. But now they can beat you either through the air or on the ground, and they have been almost unstoppable.
In the regular-season loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma managed just one sack, didn't have a single running back reach 50 yards and still darn near won that road game. Things are going to be different this time around. Cyclones star Breece Hall will still put in some work, but I expect the Sooners to win somewhat comfortably. Oklahoma 35, Iowa State 23.
Who Wins the Sun Belt Championship: No. 12 Coastal Carolina or No. 19 Louisiana?
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The Sun Belt Championship was canceled late Thursday night. However, we're going to keep this prediction here because Coastal Carolina and Louisiana deserve all the attention they can possibly get this year. Plus, they might "re-schedule" for a bowl game, so just consider this an early possible preview.
Adam Kramer
This game will be delightful. Please, do yourself a favor and watch it.
It won't produce a playoff team, but Coastal Carolina and Louisiana have earned this kind of matchup. We should appreciate the greatness at hand. They are a combined 19-0 excluding the game played against each other, they are both ranked in the top 20, and they seem like a pretty equal pairing.
That said, I like Coastal. I know last week against Troy was rough—the football hangover of all hangovers after that emotional win over BYU—but I expect we will see a much more polished version of the best story in the sport.
If the Chanticleers were to deliver a similar effort this week against a much better team, the outcome would be different. But I don't expect that to be the case even though I believe Louisiana is more than capable.
Ball control will be key, and Coastal's offense should be up for it. It won't be a blowout. In fact, this one could go back and forth. But give me those feisty roosters one more time.
Coastal Carolina 34, Louisiana 27
Kerry Miller
I absolutely love that the Chanticleers are trying to finish off an undefeated season because staying up late on Sept. 12 to tweet-watch their game against Kansas was kind of the first sense of "normalcy" many of us had in months. It just feels fitting to end the regular season with this team in the spotlight, though it would be even more fitting if it were a Wednesday night #FunBelt game like the first one these two teams played.
Louisiana is plenty good enough to exact some revenge here. The Ragin' Cajuns won road games against Iowa State, Appalachian State and UAB, they have a potent rushing attack, and they don't often shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers.
But Coastal Carolina has been a little bit better in the run game, is considerably better at defending the run and is even less turnover-prone (11 in 11 games) than Louisiana (12 in 10 games).
Coastal Carolina's redshirt freshman quarterback Grayson McCall was the only player to throw for multiple touchdowns against ULL this season. He tossed two and rushed in a third in that 30-27 win at Louisiana back in mid-October. And I think he can do it again. He has been so cool under pressure all season long, even busting out some incredible ball fakes late in that marquee win over BYU.
Coastal gets the win, and I hope it's enough for a New Year's Six bowl. Though based on all my other picks here, that's unlikely to happen. The Chanticleers either need Cincinnati to lose, or they need a fair amount of help elsewhere.
Who Wins the AAC Championship: No. 9 Cincinnati or No. 23 Tulsa?
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Joel Reuter
It was five days before Thanksgiving the last time Cincinnati played a football game, while Tulsa has taken the field just once since then in a 19-6 victory on the road against Navy on Dec. 5.
If you're looking for a crisp, high-scoring game, you've come to the wrong place.
However, these two teams match up extremely well on paper, and this should be the toughest test of the year for the Bearcats considering their victories over then-No. 22 Army and then-No. 16 SMU have looked less and less impressive as the season has worn on.
The X-factor for the Golden Hurricane is linebacker Zaven Collins, who is one of the most disruptive defensive players in college football. In seven games, he's tallied 52 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, four interceptions, two forced fumbles, two pass deflections and two defensive touchdowns. Look for this to be his national coming-out party.
Cincinnati is the better team, though, and I expect it to come out on top even if there is some initial rust. That will leave the CFP selection committee with a tough decision to make on the most compelling Group of Five case since the playoff system's inception.
Cincinnati 28, Tulsa 20.
Kerry Miller
Do you guys remember Cincinnati? Super solid defense, exciting dual-threat quarterback, undefeated with some quality wins?
Oh, you do? Well, that's a relief because the College Football Playoff selection committee clearly does not.
Since debuting at No. 7 in the Nov. 24 rankings, the Bearcats have not played a game. And even though the No. 6 (Florida), No. 8 (Northwestern) and No. 10 (Miami) teams in that initial Top 25 have all since suffered a loss, Cincinnati has somehow dropped two spots to No. 9.
Now, in addition to being frustrated with multiple cancellations, Desmond Ridder and Co. are probably pretty ticked off at the committee and ready to deliver a message at Tulsa's expense.
And listen, Tulsa is a pretty good team. The Golden Hurricane are stout on defense, and they have a bunch of second-half comeback wins on their resume, so you know they aren't just going to roll over. Even in their lone loss, they had Oklahoma State on the ropes into the fourth quarter.
I just don't think they have the offense to legitimately hang with this Cincinnati defense. They barely moved the ball in that loss to Oklahoma State, and it was the same story against Navy in their most recent game. I'm not bold enough to predict the Bearcats will pitch a shutout, but I do expect this to be over well before the final whistle. Cincinnati wins 31-6.
Who Wins the Pac-12 Championship: No. 13 USC or Oregon?
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Brad Shepard
What a story USC has been during an abbreviated Pac-12 slate. If you're going to talk about Ohio State getting into the College Football Playoff, the Trojans deserve more attention than they've been getting. Are they a dominant team? No. But they've found ways to win this year, pulling out three games in their final possession.
Head coach Clay Helton's team takes a spotless record into the Pac-12 title game, and it isn't even playing the top team from the North. That would have been Washington, but it'll be the Oregon Ducks instead. While Mario Cristobal's team is the more talented of the two, it has been a disappointment this year with losses to Oregon State and Cal to take a 3-2 record into this game.
Running back Vavae Malepeai is likely out with a knee injury, but running isn't USC's game, anyway. The Trojans normally just go to the ground game enough to keep the opponent honest. With Malepeai out, look for Graham Harrell's prolific offense to try to sling it all over the field.
USC is going to wind up winning this game, and it won't come down to the final possession for a change. Helton's team will take the Pac-12 with a 34-23 win and plant itself firmly in the mix for at least fringe CFP consideration.
Kerry Miller
In the end, we got the game that was projected from the beginning: USC vs. Oregon. It's not 6-0 vs. 6-0, though. It's 5-0 vs. 3-2. The 5-0 team barely won three of its games, and the 3-2 team is only here because Washington was unable to play last Saturday or this coming Saturday.
But hey, we were right about USC vs. Oregon.
And I think the Trojans are going to win primarily because of turnovers.
They only played five games each, so there's a grain of salt, but USC's average turnover margin (positive 1.40) ranks fourth-best in the nation while Oregon's minus-1.4 average margin ranks 123rd out of 127 teams. USC forced at least three turnovers in four of its five games; Oregon did not force a single turnover in four of its five games.
Moreover, USC quarterback Kedon Slovis has been putting up the type of numbers/performances that would have garnered some Heisman conversation in a more robust schedule. The sophomore has averaged 320.2 passing yards and 3.0 passing touchdowns per game, and he has put together not one, not two, but three game-winning touchdown drives in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter.
Slovis will have one more trick up his sleeve to propel the Trojans to a New Year's Six bowl.
Who Wins the C-USA, MAC and MWC Championships?
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David Kenyon
Marshall over UAB in Conference USA. Last time out, Marshall quarterback Grant Wells tossed five interceptions. I'm not breaking any news when I suggest that would be a problem. But if the offense simply protects the ball, Marshall's defense can carry the team. The Herd have surrendered an FBS-best 4.14 yards per snap and no more than 20 points in any game all season.
Buffalo over Ball State in the MAC. Expecting the Bulls to run all over Ball State is a little much, but that overwhelming strength will key a Buffalo win. Jaret Patterson lands the headlines, and deservedly so given his 1,025 yards and 18 touchdowns in five games. Buffalo's offensive line, though, is excellent at every spot and can handle a quality Ball State defense.
And I like San Jose State over Boise State in the Mountain West. Although my head says Boise State, I keep coming back to what is normally an unsustainable trend. The Broncos have scored six non-offensive touchdowns in six games. San Jose State isn't perfect, but huge mistakes are rare for the 6-0 Spartans. I'm all-in on the dream season continuing.
Kerry Miller
I like UAB to pull off a slight upset in the Conference USA championship. I don't know what in the world happened to Marshall in that 20-0 loss to Rice, but that was the only game the Thundering Herd have played in more than a month. UAB has a solid defense, and Spencer Brown can hold his own with Brenden Knox in this running back battle. It might be a race to 17 points, but the Blazers will get there.
In the MAC, give me Buffalo all day. Ball State has a nice offense, but the Jaret Patterson-led Bulls are a runaway freight train averaging 51.8 points per game. In its last three games, Buffalo rushed for 1,339 yards and 22 touchdowns. In 10 games, Alabama's Najee Harris has 1,084 yards and 22 touchdowns. Sorry, Cardinals, but no MAC team can slow down these Bulls. Buffalo rolls 42-28.
And in the Mountain West, I am officially rooting for San Jose State to finish off an undefeated season, but I am expecting Boise State to get the victory. The Spartans have been a remarkable, largely underappreciated story, winning each of their six games by double digits. It's pretty cool they finally cracked into the CFP Top 25 this week.
But Boise State is quite the final boss for an upstart team in this conference. The Broncos have won this championship game in three of the past six years, and they will push that mark to four out of seven in a close 27-24 brawl.
Obligatory Prediction: Who Gets to Play in the College Football Playoff?
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David Kenyon: From No. 1 to No. 4, I have Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame, assuming wins by Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. But after seeing Florida drop one spot in the rankings following a loss to a depleted LSU, you can easily convince me the committee has teed up the possibility of keeping Clemson at No. 4 even with a loss. We'll cross that bridge if we get there.
Adam Kramer: Here's what I expect we will see: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame. The most interesting part, assuming the games play out as planned, is what the committee does with seeding. It probably doesn't want a third Clemson-Notre Dame game if it can avoid it. And I'll plead the fifth on picking a champion until seeing how everyone looks this weekend.
Kerry Miller: It will be Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Notre Dame, in that order. The Buckeyes get the meaningless edge over the Tigers because of their undefeated record, but Dabo Swinney uses that slight as motivation for knocking Ohio State out of the semifinals for the second straight year. Unfortunately, also for the second straight year, they are going to lose to the runaway freight train from the SEC as Alabama polishes off a perfect 13-0 season.
Joel Reuter: I think it's going to be Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State and Texas A&M, in that order. Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book is playing the best football of his career right now, and he's going to lead the Fighting Irish to a second win over Clemson. That will knock the Tigers out of the playoff picture and set the committee up for a tough decision between undefeated Cincinnati and one-loss Texas A&M. I would personally give the nod to Cincinnati, but that's not how I expect things to play out. Though perhaps a little controversial, moving Notre Dame up to the No. 1 seed avoids the Alabama vs. Texas A&M rematch no one wants to see right away.
Brad Shepard: I think it's going to be Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame. There's no way anybody's beating the Crimson Tide, and I think the committee looks at this as "who are the teams that can hang with the gold-standard Tide?" And the only answers are found in the current foursome. Clemson will beat Notre Dame in the rematch, but the Fighting Irish still belong. Ohio State will handle Northwestern, and Alabama will roll Florida. Cincinnati and USC should be right on the cusp of the playoff, but the current top four teams are the correct ones.
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