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Iowa center Luka Garza drives up court during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Northern Illinois, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2020, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Iowa center Luka Garza drives up court during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Northern Illinois, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2020, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Iowa May Be Best Game of Men's College Basketball Season

Kerry MillerDec 17, 2020

We often wonder in sports what will happen when an unstoppable force (elite offense) meets an immovable object (elite defense), but what about two unstoppable forces crashing into one another?

We'll find out this Saturday at noon ET when No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 3 Iowa battle at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Gonzaga has only played three games thus far this season, thanks in part to a COVID-related pause from Dec. 6-14. In those three contests, though, Gonzaga's offense was downright lethal.

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In the season opener against Kansas, the Zags scored at will in a 102-90 victory, even though Kansas had arguably the best defense in the nation last year and has perhaps the best current defender in college hoops in Marcus Garrett. In their other six games, the Jayhawks have allowed just 61.8 points. No other opponentnot even Creighton or Kentuckymanaged to score more than 72.

Gonzaga proceeded to pulverize Auburn 90-67 the following day and then racked up 87 points in a win over West Virginia on Dec. 2. Nearly identical to the situation with Kansas, each of WVU's other six opponents was held to 71 points or fewer, which shows how far ahead of the pack Gonzaga is on offense.

The incredible thing about all this scoring is that, outside of Corey Kispert making nine of his first 20 three-point attempts, Gonzaga's perimeter shooting has been just plain terrible. The rest of the team has a combined line of 7-of-35 (20.0 percent).

But as has been the case for most of Mark Few's 22 seasons in the Pacific Northwest, Gonzaga has been wildly efficient in the paint.

Per KenPom.com, Gonzaga ranked top 10 in the country in two-point field-goal percentage in 10 of the last 21 years, and it last ranked outside the top 20 in that category in 2011-12. The Bulldogs also led the nation in total field goals made in each of the last two seasons and finished in the top four in each of the two years before that.

And spare me the "Well, no kidding, they play in the West Coast Conference" refrain. Two years ago, Gonzaga played 11 games against major-conference opponents. It averaged 84.5 points and shot 55.7 percent inside the arc in those contests. Even if you remove all the "lesser" competition, the Zags still would have ranked sixth in scoring average and top 20 in two-point percentage. And in three games against major-conference opponents this year, they're at 93.0 points and 65.3 percent from inside the arc.

They're a little hotter than usual, but this isn't some early-in-the-year anomaly. This is just what Gonzaga does year after year.

It's typically a full-on barrage too.

Gonzaga's Drew Timme

Drew Timme has been the most dominant force in the paint, averaging 23.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but each of the eight Zags who has scored at least one point this season is shooting 57.1 percent or better from inside the arc. The five leading scorers are all at 62.5 percent or better.

It was a similar story last year when Gonzaga entered March as one of the favorites to win it all with seven players averaging at least 9.8 points and 2.2 made two-pointers per game.

It's just so hard to defend a team with this many weapons. And, again, they haven't even begun to tap into their potential from the perimeter. Jalen Suggs, Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard are all better shooters than they have shown thus far. Once they start hitting triples at a competent rate, oh my.

Now for the fun part: Gonzaga is only No. 2 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

And, you probably guessed it, Iowa is No. 1.

Gonzaga is averaging 93.0 points per game, but Iowa has put up at least 93 points in each of its six games. The Hawkeyes are actually north of triple digits on average at 100.5 points per game.

Granted, Iowa's competition hasn't been as stiff as Gonzaga's. All six games were played at home, and four of the opponentsNorth Carolina Central, Southern, Western Illinois and Northern Illinoisrank outside the KenPom Top 250.

But this outpouring of offense was to be expected.

Led by Luka Garza, Iowa already had one of the most efficient offenses in the country last year. His decision to return for a senior season cemented the Hawkeyes as one of the top candidates to win the national championship.

And, goodness, has he ever delivered thus far.

Garza is averaging 29.2 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game, but he's only averaging 25.0 minutes because the Hawkeyes keep blowing teams out. On a per-40-minute basis, Garza is putting up a mind-boggling 46.7 points, 14.4 rebounds and 3.5 blocks while shooting 68.4 percent from three-point range and 69.1 percent from the field.

Not only has the preseason favorite for National Player of the Year been more dominant than he was last season, but he has more of a supporting cast around him.

The Hawkeyes lost Ryan Kriener's 7.7 points per game, but that was their only noteworthy departure. They more than made up for that loss by getting back Jordan Bohannon, Jack Nunge and Patrick McCaffery, who played in a combined total of 18 games last year because of a hip surgery (Bohannon), a torn ACL (Nunge) and "residual health issues" (McCaffery).

That trio finished last season with a combined total of 124 points scored, but all three rank among Iowa's top six scorers this year. And Bohannon's leadership as a fifth-year point guard is going to be so valuable once the Hawkeyes actually face some challenges. He led all scorers with 24 points in the win over North Carolina, shooting 7-of-16 from three-point range with six assists.

So what should we expect in this clash of titans?

Will Iowa's more experienced duo of Garza and Bohannon reign supreme over Gonzaga's young stars, Timme and Suggs? Or will the Hawkeyes'let's call it "questionable"defensive reputation pave the way for yet another statement victory for the Bulldogs?

KenPom has this game projected for an 87-84 Gonzaga win, but that doesn't feel like anywhere near enough points for what figures to be a track meet. (Both teams average 14.4 seconds per offensive possession, which ranks among the 20 fastest paces on offense.) I would be shocked if the winning team scores fewer than 90 points. Even 100 seems like a reasonable expectation, given how prolific these offenses are.

Both the margin and the victor feel right, though.

Gonzaga's eight-day COVID pause might worry some people from a potential rust perspective, but we're talking about a team that put up 102 points against a great team in its first game in eight-and-a-half months.

As long as there are no issues in that regard, Gonzaga should win this game. This is the best team in the country, playing on a neutral court against a mediocre defense. Iowa has more than enough offensive firepower to keep this interesting until the closing minutes, but the Zags should prevail in a must-watch shootout.

And be sure to remind your friends about this game. It's tipping off concurrently with the kickoffs of the Big Ten and Big 12 football championship games and might get a bit lost in the shuffle. If you can't pry yourself away from the first half of some pigskin games to watch it live, you're at least going to want to record it for later. This should be one of the best duels of the entire season.

Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.

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