Predictions for NBA's Top 5 Trade Targets Right Now

The NBA offseason is nearly complete, but the draft, free agency and a handful of trades won't quell teams' desire to add talent. There's no such thing as "good enough," and the constant search for paths to improvement won't stop just because regular-season games are right around the corner.

If anything, the proximity of competition will create urgency, and maybe even a little panic. And as teams look for ways to get better, they'll fixate on a few prime targets.

These are players other teams should be trying to acquire—not ones their current teams are actively trying to unload. There'll be some overlap between those two categories, but the first part is the key: Making this list requires some level of availability and high outside demand.

As recently as a few weeks ago, nobody had Chris Paul going to the Phoenix Suns or Russell Westbrook and John Wall swapping Houston Rockets and Washington Wizards jerseys. The prediction game, as ever, is for suckers.

We'll take a crack at guessing where these top trade targets will land anyway.

James Harden Gets What He Wants

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Ben Simmons is the best player the Houston Rockets can realistically hope to get in a James Harden trade, but the Philadelphia 76ers aren't currently open to moving their 24-year-old star.

In the same report that chronicled Harden's willingness to be traded to a team other than the Brooklyn Nets, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski and Tim MacMahon also noted that "new Philadelphia president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, the Rockets' general manager for the previous 13 seasons, has said he has no intention to break up the Sixers' All-Star duo" of Simmons and Joel Embiid.

If Harden were somehow still on the Rockets at the trade deadline, and if Morey had seen enough of the Simmons-Embiid combo to determine it won't work long term, the Sixers might then be the most logical landing spot. But the situation in Houston seems untenable. Action feels imminent. Even if they've said they're willing to get uncomfortable, the Rockets might not have been prepared for just how uncomfortable Harden is willing to make them.

This brings us to the Brooklyn Nets, Harden's first choice and a team with several second-tier assets to offer in place of a star like Simmons. Brooklyn owes no outgoing first-round picks and can easily package two or three (or four) of them in a deal centered around Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jarrett Allen.

That's not the best return Houston can get, but as this saga stretches toward the season and the Sixers' focus remains on their own roster rather than Harden, it seems like one it'll have to accept.

Prediction: Brooklyn Nets

Bradley Beal Lasts the Season in Washington

Nick Wass/Associated Press

If the Washington Wizards wanted to trade Bradley Beal, or if Beal were adamant in his desire to be moved, a deal would have been done by now.

This is a bet that the Wizards will like what they see this season enough to give it a chance in 2021 and beyond.

Washington will be in the East playoff picture. Down toward the bottom of the frame, no doubt, but in the picture nonetheless. Beal, Russell Westbrook and Davis Bertans give the Wizards the ingredients for an offense that could nose its way into the top 10, and there's enough young talent on hand—Rui Hachimura, Isaac Bonga, Troy Brown Jr. and rookie Deni Avdija—to project growth as the season progresses.

Beal will remain a top target with all the usual suspects poking around and placing calls. Expect the Sixers, Nets (if no Harden deal materializes), Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets to express interest. But assuming the Wizards stay healthy, they may not be so eager to move their most valuable chip and best player amid what should be a postseason push.

Maybe that's shortsighted, but you could also argue that clinging to a 27-year-old two-time All-Star who's under team control for two more seasons is actually a long-term play. Call it simplistic, but when everybody wants what you've got, the best move might be to keep it.

Prediction: No Trade

John Collins Goes Where He's Wanted

Todd Kirkland/Associated Press

First, the Clint Capela acquisition made John Collins' role uncertain. Then, with Danilo Gallinari coming aboard in free agency, the Atlanta Hawks made a second high-profile move that seems to marginalize their offensively skilled power forward.

Sure, the Hawks say they're committed to starting Collins ahead of Gallo at the 4. But that's exactly what Atlanta should be saying in order to keep Collins' trade value as high as possible. Not that the trade value of a 23-year-old who just averaged 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds while shooting 40.1 percent from deep needs much inflating.

The real issue is Collins' contract status. He's eligible for an extension before the 2020-21 season starts, but no reports indicate an agreement is imminent. One could logically conclude Atlanta's previous transactions and the current lack of an extension mean Collins isn't part of the team's' big picture.

That's fine. He can be part of someone else's.

Obviously, the Minnesota Timberwolves aren't concerned with defense. They've committed to Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell as cornerstones and spent substantially to retain Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez in restricted free agency. Collins, at a pre-extension salary of just $4.1 million in 2020-21, would make for an easy money match (with a wink-wink agreement on an extension involved, to be sure).

Minnesota owes a top-three protected 2021 first-rounder to the Warriors, which is likely to convey. Atlanta could ask for a 2023 first and a young wing in a package for Collins. If the Wolves view him as part of their core, that's a reasonable price.

Offensively, Towns and Collins would rank among the very best young frontcourt duos in the league. Both are deadly spacers, with Towns already looking like one of the better high-volume three-point shooting centers the game's ever seen, and both are threats to attack opposing bigs off the dribble. 

If Towns could leverage his considerable tools into break-even defensive play, and if Collins could stay more consistently attentive on that end, the Wolves might survive on D. Either way, Collins would put a charge into Minnesota's scoring, and he fits perfectly into the early-20s age band of its incumbent stars.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

Victor Oladipo Dealt to Dallas at the Deadline

Kim Klement/Associated Press

A cynic might view Victor Oladipo's recent assurances of loyalty to the Indiana Pacers as damage control.

So might a realist.

It's important for the Pacers and Oladipo to project harmony, regardless of how both parties feel about one another. Players who aren't perceived as actively seeking an escape are easier to trade, and teams that can credibly tell suitors "we don't have to do anything" tend to command higher prices.

Oladipo's actions will matter more than his words anyway.

If he takes the floor for the Pacers this season and looks like the All-NBA guy who rocked out on both ends in 2017-18, offers will flood in. Teams will be skeptical, though; it's been a long time since Oladipo was healthy, so it may take a good chunk of the season until the 28-year-old convinces everyone he's back.

That should put his departure date sometime around the March 25 trade deadline.

It's hard to know who might be interested in Oladipo's expiring contract by then. Chances are, we're only pulling from a field of one-guy-away contenders who'd also be open to bringing him back on a new deal.

Let's get bold and make several assumptions. First, that Giannis Antetokounmpo extends with the Milwaukee Bucks. Second, that the Dallas Mavericks determine they're not realistic players for the biggest names in 2021 free agency. And third, that Oladipo's defense is at certified lockdown levels.

With all those prerequisites, there's a scenario in which the Mavs decide Oladipo is significantly more helpful to a title push than Tim Hardaway Jr., whose money matches closely enough and whose deal also expires after the season. If Dallas attaches a first-rounder and throws in a young player, maybe we've got something.

The Mavericks have shown a willingness to bet on damaged goods in the past (see: Kristaps Porzingis), and they've also focused on adding wing defense around Luka Doncic. Peak Oladipo is a devastatingly effective stopper in the backcourt, which would make him an ideal complement to a roster built to score and defend around Doncic, a future MVP.

(Bold) Prediction: Dallas Mavericks at the deadline

Denver Plucks PJ Tucker from the Rubble

Kim Klement/Associated Press

A Harden trade would signal the official end of an era in Houston, and that could trigger several subsequent moves. The most obvious of those would involve PJ Tucker, a 35-year-old forward making just a shade under $8 million in the final year of his deal.

Tucker is a winning player—all toughness and smarts and "whatever you need me to do" grit. His ability to defend centers (or anything else that moves) and stretch the floor has been quietly integral to Houston's success. Without him, it would have been impossible for the Rockets to install a full five-out look last year.

The Denver Nuggets lost Jerami Grant to the Detroit Pistons' largesse in free agency, and though Paul Millsap is back to bolster the frontcourt rotation, there's still something of a void to be filled defensively. Tucker could slot easily into a starting forward spot next to Michael Porter Jr., shoring up the defense with similar versatility and even more toughness than Grant provided.

It's easy to view almost any type of forward as an ideal fit alongside Nikola Jokic, whose passing, ball-handling and stretch shooting accommodate non-shooters and snipers alike. But Tucker's extreme physicality would give the Nuggets intriguing matchup options that even Grant couldn't. Denver could downsize its second unit and slot Tucker at center, unlocking dangerous scoring space without fear of getting pushed around by larger opponents.

The Nuggets owe a 2023 first-round pick to the Thunder but are otherwise free of significant obligations in that department. Houston, rebuilding in this hypothetical post-Harden world, might be just fine taking back a protected first and whatever middling salary it'd require to match Tucker's modest pay rate.

For Denver, Tucker could be the piece that puts it over the top.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.