B/R Experts Answer Biggest College Football Questions for Week 14
Welcome to Week 14 of the 2020 college football season, where BYU and Coastal Carolina's agreement Thursday to play Saturday is somehow infinitely more intriguing than Alabama facing the reigning national champions.
There's all sorts of chaos in the Big Ten, too. The Maryland-Michigan game was canceled. So was No. 14 Northwestern at Minnesota. All eyes have been on No. 4 Ohio State because the Buckeyes need to play their game against Michigan State in order to qualify for the conference championship. And the marquee matchup between No. 12 Indiana and No. 16 Wisconsin lost a lot of its luster because of a season-ending injury to a key Hoosier.
If the games played this weekend are anywhere near as bonkers as the days leading up to it, there are going to be multiple Top 10 teams biting the dust.
Do we expect that to happen, though, or is it going to be a pretty boring week as far as shake-up in the College Football Playoff rankings is concerned?
Which likely Heisman finalist does the most to help his case for the stiff-armed trophy?
And who wins that big BYU-Coastal Carolina clash?
Bleacher Report's college football experts—David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Joel Reuter and Brad Shepard—have predictions for each of those questions and more in advance of what should be another stellar weekend of collegiate pigskin.
Will No. 5 Texas A&M Win at Auburn to Remain in the Hunt for CFP?
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Brad Shepard
Yeah, the Aggies will win. But it will be the kind of Texas A&M-stamped victory you've grown accustomed to wrinkling your nose at all year.
The Aggies are the least impressive team getting the most publicity this season. The latter part of that is because of the big-time early-season win over Florida, and they have since feasted on an SEC West that is not as formidable as usual.
But the 52-24 loss to Alabama was never even close, and that could hurt coach Jimbo Fisher's team when it comes to College Football Playoff committee style points. And in order to remain in those discussions, the Aggies need to survive a tough trip to Auburn to take on a team that suffered the same embarrassment at the hands of the powerful Crimson Tide a week ago.
The bottom line is this will be a matchup of two good-not-great teams. The Aggies need a flashy, late-season win, especially after they slogged through a rainy win over an overmatched LSU team a week ago. They won't get many style points against Auburn, though. They will win another close, ugly game by a score of 27-23.
Kerry Miller
Auburn has only played two games thus far against teams that currently boast a winning record, and the Tigers got trounced by Alabama and Georgia in those contests.
I don't imagine this game will be quite that ugly, because Auburn has home-field advantage this time and I'm hardly convinced that Texas A&M is the fifth-best team in the country. But I do suspect the Aggies will win without too much difficulty thanks to their excellent rushing defense.
Opponents are averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and 87.1 yards per game against Texas A&M. And the Aggies have been particularly stingy of late, limiting three of their past four opponents to 2.0 YPC and 50 yards or fewer.
If Auburn can't establish the run, it won't do much on offense. Because while Bo Nix has occasional, fleeting moments when it looks like he could be a star, most of his performances point toward a QB battle this offseason for Auburn.
In his last two games, Nix has one passing touchdown, three interceptions and nine rushing yards. If that trend continues while A&M also stifles Tank Bigsby and Co., perhaps this game will get out of hand—which would be huge for the Aggies, who need impressive performances to bypass Ohio State and/or the ACC runner-up at this point. My prediction: Texas A&M 30, Auburn 13.
Does No. 9 Iowa State Clinch Its Spot in the Big 12 Title Game by Beating WVU?
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Adam Kramer
Yes, but it won't be easy.
Before I get into why, let's first celebrate what an achievement this would be. Iowa State began its season with a 17-point home loss to Louisiana, which felt ominous in the moment. Louisiana has responded with a nearly perfect season. But so have the Cyclones, who came a field goal at Oklahoma State away from going 8-0 in league play—which includes wins over Texas and Oklahoma, the usual favorites in the Big 12.
Transitioning to this particular game, West Virginia has been solid throughout the year, and an improved defense is what will be necessary against Iowa State's offense. Two of the three Mountaineers losses were winnable games, and this one is, too.
It's disappointing WVU's game against Oklahoma last week was postponed, because that would've served as valuable intel for this matchup. As is, I see this game ending up close. Iowa State grinds out a win by less than a touchdown thanks to star running back Breece Hall.
Kerry Miller
West Virginia is undefeated at home but winless on the road. And this game is being played in Ames, Iowa, so I've got the Cyclones improving to 8-1 in league play.
It should be an excellent game, though, because West Virginia has the best defense the Big 12 has seen in at least a decade.
The Mountaineers are especially stingy against the pass. In fact, they are leading the nation at just 161.5 passing yards allowed per game. And Brock Purdy is having a bit of a down year compared to his first two seasons running the Cyclones offense.
But for whatever reason, West Virginia has had trouble defending the run on the road, and Iowa State has one hell of a running back in Breece Hall. He was held in check in last weekend's win over Texas and still racked up 91 yards and a touchdown. I suspect he'll be back to his usual 150 yards and two touchdowns type of day against the Mountaineers, and Iowa State's defense will take care of the rest in a 27-17 victory.
Will No. 12 Indiana Improve to 6-1 in a Big Road Test Against No. 16 Wisconsin?
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Joel Reuter
Utah transfer Jack Tuttle completed all five of his pass attempts for 31 yards after replacing Michael Penix Jr. on Saturday in a win over Maryland, and he has the keys to the Hoosiers offense now that Penix will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.
The former 4-star recruit is capable of moving the ball, but Indiana will undoubtedly be forced to lean more heavily on the run game in his first start. That doesn't bode well against a Badgers defense that is allowing just 67.3 rushing yards per game, including holding Northwestern to 24 yards on 23 carries two weeks ago.
Turnovers were the biggest issue for Wisconsin in that loss to the Wildcats, five of them to be exact. They committed just one turnover in their first two games combined, so it's possible that carelessness was a one-time fluke. And as long as they protect the football and their defensive front shows up, the Badgers should be able to assert their status as the second-best team in the Big Ten Conference.
That being said, don't expect Wisconsin to skate to victory. The Indiana defense pitched a shutout against Michigan State earlier this year, and it is more than capable of keeping things close, even if the offense is not firing on all cylinders.
Wisconsin 32, Indiana 21.
Kerry Miller
Unfortunately, no, Indiana won't win.
The Hoosiers were one of the best stories of the past six weeks, from the come-from-behind overtime win over Penn State through the near-500-yard passing performance in the close call at Ohio State. And while the secondary averaging 2.7 interceptions per game has been a colossal part of this team's success, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was the driving force of this feel-good story.
He orchestrated the long game-tying drive and subsequently ran in the incredible two-point conversion against the Nittany Lions. He launched the deep balls against the Buckeyes. And he tore his ACL last weekend against Maryland.
Indiana did run the ball well against the Terrapins, but generally speaking, its ground game has been dreadful. The Hoosiers were averaging just 81.0 rushing yards in their first five games, and now they have to contend with a Wisconsin defense allowing 67.3 rushing yards per game and no touchdowns through three contests.
That means they'll need big things from second-string QB Jack Tuttle, who has 65 passing yards thus far in his college career. And I don't see that ending well. Unless Graham Mertz throws multiple touchdowns to the wrong team, Wisconsin wins big.
The Highest-Ranked Team to Lose in Week 14 Will Be...?
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Brad Shepard
It's been a fun ride so far for the Indiana Hoosiers, who proved week in and week out they are one of the best stories of the college football season. But a season-ending knee injury to do-it-all quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is going to end that story sadly and prematurely.
Utah transfer Jack Tuttle replaced him and completed all five passes against Maryland last weekend. There's no great reason to assume he will be anything less than a serviceable replacement, every bit as good as Peyton Ramsey was last year before transferring to Northwestern.
But Tuttle is no Penix.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, has to be irritated after a lackluster loss to Northwestern, as the Badgers are better than they played in that game. Look for Graham Mertz to rebound, the offense to do a better job sustaining drives and the defense to benefit from Penix standing on the sideline.
The season isn't completely over for IU. However, Tuttle needs some time to get acclimated, and this is an opponent that will make that tough to accommodate. Wisconsin will beat the Hoosiers in a close one.
Kerry Miller
With five of the top six teams playing on the road, it could be a chaotic weekend.
But I can't see any of them going down.
No. 6 Florida at Tennessee could be somewhat interesting, because A) I don't believe the Volunteers are as bad as their 2-5 record B) Florida's defense isn't great and C) Jeremy Pruitt is probably coaching for his job at this point. But it'll be too much Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts in the end.
There's also no way No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 8 Georgia or No. 11 Oklahoma will lose their home games against opponents with a combined record of 3-22.
No. 10 Miami should win at Duke, and I've got No. 9 Iowa State winning its home game against West Virginia, so that means my pick here is No. 12 Indiana losing at No. 16 Wisconsin.
Even with a healthy Penix, I likely would've been picking the Badgers to win this game. But now that the Hoosiers—who have had a dreadful run game this season—have to play with a backup quarterback, I just can't imagine them winning this road game. Wisconsin cruises 28-10.
Over/Under 1.5 Kickoffs for Vanderbilt at Georgia?
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David Kenyon
I'm saying over at 2, simply because back-to-back shutouts seem highly unlikely. Even a bad offense can stumble into one scoring drive. And this, to be sure, is a bad Vanderbilt offense.
Let's talk about Sarah Fuller, though.
The coaching staff had a very specific plan for that kickoff. She executed to perfection, allowing zero opportunity for a return. She improved Vandy's kick coverage from a national ranking of 88th to 61st on that one attempt.
She may not have kicked it far, but in this case it didn't matter.
Kerry Miller
Fuller's kick was a monumental moment in an otherwise disastrous afternoon for Vanderbilt.
But if the Commodores couldn't score against Missouri, I don't see things getting any better against Georgia.
The Bulldogs had some rough defensive performances in the losses to Alabama and Florida, but this defense can completely shut down bad and mediocre offenses. Neither Auburn nor Kentucky scored a touchdown against Georgia, which has held 62.5 percent of its opponents to 280 yards or fewer.
So, yeah, I'm expecting a shutout, which means just one kickoff for Vandy. I hope I'm wrong, though. I hope Fuller crushes a 50-yard field goal and then gets doused with a bucket full of Gatorade. And then Vanderbilt would only lose 35-3.
Which of the 4 Heisman Front-Runners Has the Best Week on the Road?
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Joel Reuter
Trevor Lawrence has two 400-yard performances in his last three games. Now, he's set to square off against a Virginia Tech defense that ranks 105th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game. Buckle up.
Two weeks ago, Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for 404 yards in a 47-14 blowout of the Hokies.
All due respect to Pickett, who is a polished senior signal-caller, but he's not the future No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. Moreover, the Panthers offense doesn't have anything close to the weapons that Clemson does in both the passing and the running game.
The only hesitation with picking Lawrence is that he might be watching from the sideline by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. However, Virginia Tech's other four losses this year came by an average of 5.5 points, so the Hokies are more than capable of keeping things close, even if they're not a real threat to win.
Another 400-yard day through the air and four touchdown passes will be a boon to Lawrence's candidacy, though he'll still be chasing Florida quarterback Kyle Trask to be the front-runner for the award.
Kerry Miller
It's got to be Mac Jones at LSU.
For as disappointing as Tennessee has been lately, its secondary is doing all right. The Volunteers aren't going to shut down Kyle Trask, but they can probably keep him a bit below his season averages of 351.3 yards and 4.25 touchdowns. Similar story for Michigan State facing Justin Fields, as the Spartans have only allowed four passing touchdowns through five games. And for as efficiently lethal as he is, Trevor Lawrence usually doesn't put up video-game numbers. He certainly could light up Virginia Tech's defense, but I'm choosing to play the odds with a guy who has had 315-plus yards and four-plus touchdowns just once in 37 career games.
Then there's Jones, who has had either 387 passing yards or four touchdowns in six of his last seven games. Jones has also been especially lethal against Alabama's most noteworthy competition, averaging 384.7 yards and 4.3 touchdowns against Texas A&M, Georgia and Auburn. And now he gets to face the reigning national champions with a secondary that has been awful for most of the season.
The Tigers did just shut down Kellen Mond and the Aggies last week in a game with #weather, but that doesn't even begin to make up for the disastrous performances they had against Mississippi State, Missouri and Auburn. I'm expecting at least 350 yards and four scores from Jones in a game in which he continues to close the gap with Trask.
Which Game Between Unranked Teams Will Be Most Entertaining?
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Adam Kramer
Ultimately, this particular selection in this particular week boils down to what you want out of a football game. I get why many would just lazily toss in two of the bigger brands playing each other. It's the easy thing to do for a question like this.
Me? I want a bit of everything. I thought about Fresno State-Nevada. I thought about UCLA-Arizona State. I even thought about Texas-Kansas State.
In the end, however, I'm going with Tulane-Memphis.
Now, I understand why that doesn't sound sexy. Tulane is 5-5 after all. But that record and this matchup are largely why I am drawn to it.
The spread is nonexistent and the expected total is in the 60s. Tulane, despite its mediocre record, has won three out of the past four. To me, this is a program on the rise in search of another breakthrough. And Memphis, at 6-2, feels like an opportune spot to rise even higher.
It has all the ingredients to be excellent. Points. Fun programs. Fun football. Close game. Sign me up.
Kerry Miller
I would say the most intriguing game is Arkansas at Missouri.
Those are the two middle-of-the-pack SEC teams that have been pretty solid against the bottom half of the league. It will be compelling to see them go head-to-head. Whether the end result is Missouri improving to 5-3 or Arkansas winning its fourth game of the season, no one saw either of those things coming. In our preseason SEC preview, I had Missouri going 2-8 and Arkansas going 1-9.
But the most entertaining game should be Memphis at Tulane.
Tulane has scored at least 24 points in each of its 10 games, but its secondary leaves much to be desired, which will almost certainly be a problem against a Memphis team that averages 325 passing yards per game. Tulane has a stout rushing attack, and Memphis has one of the best run defenses in the AAC, so that'll be a fun little battle of opposing strengths.
Which Game Will Produce the Most Total Points?
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David Kenyon
To the Sun Belt we go!
Louisiana-Monroe is 0-9 this season, and Arkansas State has dropped five straight games. Both defenses are, shall we say, lacking in efficiency. Out of 127 teams, they rank 124th and 120th, respectively, in scoring defense. Not a whole lot of other justification needed, right?
Where this prediction could go badly, though, is that ULM doesn't really have a threatening offense.
Since the Warhawks have scored three-plus offensive touchdowns in only two games, there's a realistic chance Arkansas State just cruises to a lopsided win. But the Red Wolves have a dreadful secondary, and ULM has an ineffective running game anyway. I have high-scoring expectations for this otherwise lackluster matchup.
Kerry Miller
I like Clemson at Virginia Tech here.
Not only is Clemson averaging 46.1 points per game, but the Tigers have put up at least 34 points in each of their nine games. And Virginia Tech's defense is decidedly not great. The Hokies have allowed at least 31 points and at least 410 total yards in more than half of their games played. Like, you don't give up 47 points to Pittsburgh and then turn around two weeks later and stifle one of the best offenses in the nation.
Fifty-two points for Clemson feels like a good, conservative estimation here.
But the Hokies have a respectable offense, averaging 33.2 points and 450 total yards per game. Running back Khalil Herbert has tapered off after a red-hot start, but Virginia Tech still runs the ball well enough to put together at least a couple of touchdown drives.
The outcome of the game probably won't be in doubt at any point in the second half, but I could easily see VT putting up 27 points against a Clemson defense that has had its fair share of lapses. (See: first half for Boston College, 417-yard game for Virginia and 47 points for Notre Dame.)
No. 13 BYU at No. 18 Coastal Carolina: Who Wins This Undefeated Showdown?
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Note: We typically put together the questions for the week on Monday afternoon. But when this colossal game was agreed upon Thursday morning, we threw up the bat signal for a quick response from all five experts.
David Kenyon
First of all, this is a spectacular matchup. Going on an immediate tangent, but the Group of Five (and independents) should intentionally plan a TBD late-season weekend for these showdowns every season. If you've heard athletic directors and administrators lament about the difficulty of adjusting schedules, 2020 has provided some evidence to the contrary. It's probably a big hassle! Lots of moving parts, no question about it. But look at the reward! This should happen every single year.
Specific to the game, I'm taking BYU. The CFP selection committee has twice pointed to Ohio State's "offensive firepower" as justification for ranking the Buckeyes higher than Texas A&M, yet BYU—a top-five team nationally in yards per game, yards per play, scoring offense, gains of 30-plus yards, etc.—doesn't get the same recognition. This is BYU's moment to unleash Zach Wilson, a likely top-five Heisman Trophy finisher, in the national spotlight. Coastal Carolina has a strong defense, but this BYU offense is electric. BYU wins 38-24.
Adam Kramer
First, this might be the only good thing to emerge from 2020. Second, let us take a moment to appreciate just how awesome this is. [Pauses a moment for awesomeness.]
Good. Now, with that out of the way, give me BYU. Coastal is a great team and more than capable of pulling this off. But Zach Wilson is the most impressive player on the field and a game-changer in pretty much any game in which he's involved. The circumstances are bizarre for both teams, although the outcome is magnificent for us. BYU 38, Coastal Carolina 24.
Kerry Miller
I thought I was excited for Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina. But when rumors began to circulate about the possibility of BYU replacing Liberty in this game, I basically lived out the full "Vince McMahon falling out of his chair in a state of euphoria" clip. This matchup is going to be fantastic, and with apologies and best wishes to Liberty, it's refreshing that 2020 finally threw us a nice curveball for a change.
As far a my prediction goes, I'm going to throw you a nice curveball, too: Coastal Carolina pulls off the upset. College GameDay is going to be in Conway, South Carolina. BYU went from not expecting to play a game to a late-notice, 2,000-mile trip to face an undefeated team. I do believe BYU is the better team, especially on defense. But I think those external factors give Coastal a slight edge. I also think it helps that the Chanticleers have faced (and defeated) better competition than BYU has. Give me Coastal Carolina 35-31 on a clutch, game-winning drive by Grayson McCall.
Joel Reuter
Aside from the stellar play of quarterback Zach Wilson, the biggest strength for BYU this season has been a run defense that is allowing just 88.4 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. That will be the key to victory against a Coastal Carolina team that leans heavily on the rushing attack, carrying the ball 43 times per game.
Expect the Cougars to build an early lead and force a few uncharacteristic mistakes from Chanticleers quarterback Grayson McCall en route to making a strong case for leapfrogging Cincinnati in the "Best Group of Five/Independent" debate. BYU 34, Coastal Carolina 24
Brad Shepard
College football is about championships, developing players for the pros and all the pageantry and tradition. But it's mostly about fun. It stinks for Liberty that the Flames are dealing with COVID-19 issues, but what a matchup we're getting as a result! Kudos to these gutsy teams for making it happen.
So how does it shake out? I've fallen in love with Zach Wilson, Dax Milne, Gunner Romney and that explosive Cougars offense. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina has been a revelation. Both offenses will score, but the Cougars will make one more defensive stop. Give me BYU 38-35 in an instant classic.
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