Making the Case for NFL's Top 5 MVP Candidates in 2020

You might have heard once, twice or 874 times that Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has yet to receive a single vote for MVP in his eight previous NFL seasons. There's a good chance that changes in a few months' time, as Wilson was widely viewed as the MVP front-runner for much of September and October. 

But the 31-year-old has slipped up in recent weeks, while former MVPs Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers have both picked up steam in MVP conversations. 

Those three have by far the top odds at DraftKings, with dark-horse candidates like Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Arizona Cardinals signal-caller Kyler Murray, future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger and NFL touchdown leader Dalvin Cook all populating the next tier of candidates. 

With the second half of the 2020 campaign now officially underway, let's review the cases belonging to the top five contenders at this stage. 

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

His case in a nutshell

Momentum and team success are on Mahomes' side. While Wilson has performed poorly in two recent Seattle losses and Rodgers has been up and down during a so-so stretch for the Packers, Mahomes has 12 touchdown passes to zero interceptions and a 128.1 passer rating over the course of four consecutive Kansas City victories.

The 8-1 Chiefs have averaged 34.3 points per game during that run, and their 25-year-old quarterback is now on pace to set a new single-season record with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 44-to-2. 

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Potential impediments

The schedule could be a challenge. After their Week 10 bye, the Chiefs play on the road against a Las Vegas Raiders team that defeated them earlier this season, and then they're in Tampa for a tough matchup with the Buccaneers' top-notch defense. They also travel to face the surging Miami Dolphins and juggernaut New Orleans Saints in December.

Keep in mind we've had eight different MVPs the last eight years. Mahomes might come out on the wrong end of a toss-up between him and Wilson, Allen, Murray and anyone else who has never won this thing. 

Stats you didn't know

• Mahomes leads the league with a ridiculous 139.6 passer rating on third-down throws
• He leads the AFC with a 143.5 rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games
• Shockingly, he has the eighth-highest qualified bad throw rate in the NFL

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson

His case in a nutshell

Wilson leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes, 10 of which have come on deep balls. He might be the best deep passer in the league, he's an exceptional improviser and he's got the 6-2 Seahawks in Super Bowl conversations despite the fact that their defense ranks in the bottom 10 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders.

He also has a higher yards-per-attempt average (8.6) than both Mahomes (8.2) and Rodgers (8.0), and the Seahawks have the highest-scoring offense in football. 

Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press

Potential impediments

After a hot start, Wilson has five interceptions and a passer rating of "just" 100.4 the last three weeks. The Seahawks have lost two of those games, and they've allowed nine sacks during that stretch.

A lack of support could be a feather in his cap, but it might also cause his and his team's numbers to drop off to such a degree that he won't be able to compete with someone like Mahomes. A quarterback hasn't won MVP without his team winning its division since 2008. 

Stats you didn't know

• Only five qualified passers have been under pressure as often as Wilson, and none of them are MVP candidates
• Only three quarterbacks have higher on-target rates, and Rodgers and Mahomes rank well below him in that category
• He's averaging a tied-for-league-high 5.1 air yards per pass attempt
• He's completed just 50 percent of his passes and has more interceptions than touchdowns on third down

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers

His case in a nutshell

The two-time MVP is suddenly the NFL's highest-rated qualified passer for a Packers team that looks to have a firmer grip on first place than Wilson's Seahawks. He's even better on third down and on deep attempts, and he and Mahomes rank first or second in all of the key advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. 

The 36-year-old was tearing it up before laying an egg against the Bucs in Week 6, but he's responded to that with 11 touchdown throws to zero interceptions and a 130.2 passer rating the last three weeks. 

Scot Tucker/Associated Press

Potential impediments

He's rolling right now, but another dud or two like that one from Week 6 could completely remove him from contention, and those happen when you're nearing 37.

The schedule could also be a problem as Green Bay still has to face the Chicago Bears twice, as well as the Philadelphia Eagles (who have struggled but have a talented defensive front), Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts. 

Stats you didn't know

• Rodgers' receivers have dropped a league-high 7.1 percent of the passes thrown their way
• Only two qualified quarterbacks have been pressured less often than him
• He and Mahomes both have exactly 18 touchdown passes and zero picks in the red zone

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen

His case in a nutshell

At 7-2, the Bills are on track to capture their first AFC East crown of the 21st century, and Allen is a massive reason why. He's thrown 15 touchdown passes to two interceptions in Buffalo's seven victories, and he's accumulated a combined 24 passing and rushing scores thus far. 

Only three quarterbacks have more deep completions than the cannon-armed 24-year-old, and he just clearly outdueled Wilson in a head-to-head matchup in which the Bills beat the Seahawks handily. 

Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press

Potential impediments

After a hot start, he threw just four touchdown passes to four picks and posted a 79.2 passer rating during a mediocre four-week stretch for a Bills team that was plummeting back to earth before the somewhat surprising victory over Seattle.

Allen's team has scored just nine more points than it has allowed, and down the stretch he'll have to deal with the Arizona Cardinals on the road, the defensively terrifying Pittsburgh Steelers in Orchard Park and the suddenly challenging Dolphins in Week 17. His numbers are already a significant step down from those belonging to the Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers, and it'll be tough to catch up. 

Stats you didn't know

• Only Mahomes and Jared Goff have higher passer ratings in the fourth quarter of one-score games
• Among players in this breakdown, he ranks second to only Wilson in terms of air yards per attempt and first in on-target rate
• The Buffalo offense has faced the weakest schedule in the NFL thus far in 2020, according to Football Outsiders

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray

His case in a nutshell

In his last five games, Murray has generated 16 passing/rushing touchdowns compared to just two interceptions for an Arizona offense that ranks sixth in the league in points per game. He also leads all quarterbacks—including Lamar Jackson—in rushing yardage and is on pace to rush for well over 1,000 yards. 

The second-year No. 1 overall pick has taken just five sacks since Week 3 and appears to be improving as the season progresses. Throw in that he's loaded with support on both sides of the ball and this is beginning to remotely resemble Jackson's unreal 2019 MVP campaign.  

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Potential impediments

He still ranks below all of the players listed above him here in terms of QBR, passer rating and yards per attempt, and his Cardinals face an uphill battle in the NFC West. It's hard to imagine Murray beating out Wilson for MVP if his team doesn't overtake Seattle in that division, but at the moment they're a game back of the Seahawks and tied with the Los Angeles Rams. 

It's also fair to wonder if the 23-year-old can sustain his recent pace at this early stage in his career. Will there be more growing pains? 

Stats you didn't know

• Only two running backs have rushed for more touchdowns than Murray
• He's the NFC's highest-rated passer in the red zone
• He has a sub-70 passer rating and more interceptions (four) than touchdown passes (three) on third down

Also worth mentioning

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady: Can he hold up at 43? A Week 9 flop against the Saints hurt his MVP stock, but you can never count Brady out and the Bucs remain a contender. 

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees: Alvin Kamara's ridiculous numbers from the first half of the season might make it tough for the 41-year-old to establish himself as the league's most valuable player, but the fact is he has an elite 115.5 passer rating since Week 3. The Saints are streaking and Michael Thomas is back. 

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook: Cook has generated an unreal 478 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns in the last two weeks alone. He's on pace to become the third player in NFL history to score 28 or more touchdowns in a season, which is amazing considering he's missed a game due to injury. Still, that might not be sustainable, and the Vikings' losing record makes Cook a much more viable Offensive Player of the Year than MVP. 

Los Angeles Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald: He currently has the top odds among defensive players thanks to a tied-for-league-high nine sacks to go with three forced fumbles. To actually make a run at becoming the first defensive MVP since 1986, he'll likely have to break Michael Strahan's single-season sack record of 22.5 and the Rams will almost certainly have to win the NFC West. 

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: He gets a shoutout as the reigning MVP, but the numbers just aren't there this year and the Ravens haven't been as dominant. 

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger: Can he hold up? If the answer is yes and the Steelers make a run at 16-0, it might not matter that Big Ben's rate-based stats aren't as strong as those of Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.