Buying or Selling NFL Wild-Card Teams as Super Bowl Contenders

A playoff team just needs a chance to advance. 

During the 2010 campaign, the Green Bay Packers turned a wild-card berth into a Super Bowl title. We haven't seen a non-division winner accomplish that feat since then, though the Tennessee Titans came close before a loss in the AFC Championship Game last season.

This year, the NFL widened the postseason field, adding a seventh seed for each conference. Earlier this week, owners approved a proposal to tack on an eighth playoff team on each side of the bracket if COVID-19 outbreaks force the league to cancel more regular-season games, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

For now, let's stick to the current playoff format. Which wild-card teams have a shot to do what the Packers did a decade ago? Going into Week 10, we'll freeze-frame seed Nos. 5 to 7 in each conference and buy or sell those teams as Super Bowl contenders.

AFC No. 7: Las Vegas Raiders

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Las Vegas Raiders head coach Jon Gruden

At 5-3, the Las Vegas Raiders remain under the radar.

They don't have a top-10 offense or defense, but key players have found ways to lead the team to victories.

In Week 2, quarterback Derek Carr had one of his best outings, throwing for 284 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the New Orleans Saints. In Week 5, he outdueled Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, throwing for a season-high 347 yards, three touchdowns and one interception with a 71 percent completion rate, which secured his first win at Arrowhead Stadium. 

Carr has played at a comparable or higher level than his 2016 campaign in which he led the Silver and Black to 11 wins before suffering a broken ankle in Week 16. The 29-year-old is on pace to tie his career high in passing touchdowns (32). 

In the Raiders' season opener, running back Josh Jacobs scored three touchdowns, leading his squad to a 34-30 victory over the Carolina Panthers. He had a signature game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 8, rushing for a career-high 129 yards. The second-year ball-carrier is third in rushing yards with 588.

Unfortunately for Vegas, its defense seldom generates impact plays, as it's severely lacking in the pass rush and takeaways. The Raiders have the second-fewest sacks (nine) and list 21st in quarterback pressures (66). Along with the Houston Texans, Vegas has forced the fewest turnovers (five).

Without an elite offensive attack, the Raiders won't advance far with a defense that doesn't apply much pressure on quarterbacks or take the ball away. Top signal-callers will pick them apart in tight battles.

Verdict: Sell

AFC No. 6 Tennesse Titans

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Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill

Initially, the Tennessee Titans seemed to shed the fluke label with a 5-0 start, but they've lost three of their last four contests, which include a head-scratching defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1). 

Going into Thursday's matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee fielded the seventh-ranked scoring offense and the sixth-best ground attack. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is tied for fourth in touchdown passes (20) while running back Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing yards (946). 

However, the Titans have two critical areas of concern that could prevent them from recreating late-season magic.

Tennessee's defense has taken a slight step back, listing 16th in points and 25th for yards allowed compared to 12th and 21st, respectively, in 2019. The unit is tied for the fourth-fewest sacks (11). 

If the Titans struggle to stop opponents, they'll have to rely on their passing game in scoring shootouts, which may limit Henry's impact. Despite Tannehill's production, this is still a run-first squad that wears down its opponents on the ground. 

In the postseason, the Titans will likely need a win or two in close matchups to reach the Super Bowl, but they cannot feel good about their special teams unit. Taking over for Ryan Allen, Trevor Daniel shanked a punt for 17 yards, which allowed the Colts to score a touchdown on a short field Thursday. 

Even more worrisome, kicker Stephen Gostkowski continues to misfire on field goals. He missed a 44-yarder against the Colts. For the season, the 15th-year pro has made 12-of-20 field-goal attempts. If a game comes down to his leg, the other team has to like its chances.

Verdict: Sell

AFC No. 5: Baltimore Ravens

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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson

Last season, the Baltimore Ravens claimed the AFC's No. 1 seed and finished an NFL-best 14-2. Even though it's 6-2 this year, the team is in a wild-card spot because the Pittsburgh Steelers remain undefeated at 8-0, and quarterback Lamar Jackson isn't as electric in the passing game.

In 2019, Jackson led the league in touchdown passes (36) and had a 66.1 percent completion rate and the NFL's best QBR (82.3). After eight games this season, he's on pace for 24 touchdown passes while completing 62.9 percent of his attempts, with a 61.9 QBR.

Jackson told NFL Network's Rich Eisen earlier this week that the Ravens offense has become predictable.

"They're calling out our plays, stuff like that," he said. "They know what we're doing. Sometimes stuff won't go our way if they're beating us to the punch."

Still, Baltimore's offense ranks eighth in scoring thanks to the ground attack, which has racked up the most rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. The Ravens can make a deep playoff run with their physical offensive identity and the league's stingiest scoring defense. 

Jackson hasn't won a playoff game, and his 2020 struggles to move the ball through the air may cause concern. Nevertheless, he has one of the best supporting casts with a stable of solid running backs, which includes Mark Ingram II, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and a defense allowing just 17.8 points per game. 

Jackson can use his legs to break open a game. He's rushed for more than 52 yards in six out of eight contests. Don't count him or the Ravens out of a Super Bowl appearance.

Verdict: Buy

NFC No. 7: Los Angeles Rams

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Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald

Coming off a bye week, the Los Angeles Rams remain a mystery despite their spot as the seventh seed. They've beaten the entire NFC East, which is a division without a .500 club, and the Chicago Bears, who rank 29th in scoring and lost their last three games. We can fairly question if the Rams' 5-3 record is fool's gold. 

Furthermore, L.A.'s offense ranks 21st in scoring, failing to eclipse 20 points in four games. With the Seahawks and Buccaneers up next on the schedule, the team can finally measure itself against top-notch opposition within the conference. 

Despite the signs of a pretender, the Rams field a defense that can travel in any weather if they reach the playoffs. Los Angeles allows the second-fewest points and yards, and features top-five marks against passing and rushing attacks. 

Even with the rough stretches offensively, the Rams have a clear strength on that side of the ball: They're seventh in rushing. Running backs Darrell Henderson Jr., Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers all average at least 4.2 yards per carry. That's an indication of a solid offensive line. According to Football Outsiders, Los Angeles has the second-best run-blocking unit.

The combination of a stingy defense and a physical attack on the ground bodes well for a team that could go on the road to play the Green Bay Packers or Philadelphia Eagles outdoors in January. 

Don't forget, head coach Sean McVay has gone to a Super Bowl with quarterback Jared Goff. If defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey play up to their All-Pro abilities in big matchups, we could see the Rams back in the championship round.

Verdict: Buy

NFC No. 6: Arizona Cardinals

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Arizona Cardinals wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins

The 5-3 Arizona Cardinals should feel good about their playoff chances. In their season opener, they beat a mostly healthy San Francisco 49ers squad on the road and knocked off a then-undefeated Seattle Seahawks in Week 7.

Yet the Cardinals had back-to-back losses to the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions, two three-win teams that will probably watch the postseason from home.

Arizona fields a dynamic offensive attack that's accumulated the most yards through nine weeks. Quarterback Kyler Murray has thrown for 2,130 yards, 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions with a 68.1 percent completion rate. He's also the team's leading rusher, logging 543 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. 

Murray has one of the best wide receiver trios, which features DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. Running back Chase Edmonds has filled in admirably for Kenyan Drake (ankle), racking up 486 scrimmage yards. 

But Arizona's defense raises concerns. Even though they rank eighth in points allowed per game, the Cardinals have given up 34 points in each of the last two contests. They're 19th and 22nd against passing and rushing attacks, respectively. 

The Cardinals lost their best pass-rusher, Chandler Jones, for the season because of a torn biceps. Coordinator Vance Joseph hasn't figured out a way to fully utilize rookie first-rounder Isaiah Simmons' versatility. In eight contests, he's played 20 percent of the defensive snaps. 

Until the Cardinals turn it around defensively and cut down on penalties (fourth-most), they're hard to trust in a tight playoff matchup where every yard counts. 

Verdict: Sell

NFC No. 5: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven't qualified for the playoffs since 2007, but quarterback Tom Brady brought a championship pedigree with him from New England last offseason. He has six Super Bowl titles and hasn't missed the postseason in a full campaign since 2002. 

The 6-2 Saints still have a stronghold on the NFC South. They shellacked the Buccaneers 38-3 last week to sweep the season series. Yet, we cannot rule out a third matchup between these teams with raised stakes in the playoffs. 

Before its last loss to New Orleans, Tampa Bay had been one of the hottest teams, winning six of seven contests going into Week 9. The 6-3 Buccaneers field a top-10 scoring offense and defense, which means they can win in multiple ways.

Brady has elevated the Buccaneers' offensive efficiency following the club's five-year stretch with turnover-prone quarterback Jameis Winston under center.

Wideout Antonio Brown made his 2020 debut against New Orleans and only caught three passes for 31 yards. Once he warms up to the Buccaneers' offensive system, the four-time All-Pro could become a handful to cover downfield. 

The production on the other side of the ball is what makes the Buccaneers a Super Bowl contender, though. The defense ranks second in sacks (29) and quarterback pressures (101). 

On the road, this unit can win a low-scoring matchup with a front seven that reaches the quarterback and gives up the fewest rushing yards.

Verdict: Buy