5 Bold NBA Offseason Predictions
The 2020 NBA offseason is ripe for bold predictions, which is just another way of saying absolutely nobody knows what's going to happen.
The draft's defining characteristic is its uncertainty. The condensed transaction window created by a Dec. 22 start date is a breeding ground for chaos, and the pandemic-fueled financial upheaval has teams recalibrating plans on the fly. Combined, those circumstances will spur transactions and team-building trends nobody saw coming.
As a refresher, a bold prediction isn't bold if it's likely to be right. If it comes true, it ideally registers somewhere between surprise and total shock. It can't be easily foreseeable, but it needs at least a little logical underpinning. There's a line between boldness and unhinged dreaming. It's faint, but it's there.
We'll get specific with some guesses and zoom out for big-picture prognostications for others.
Who knows? Maybe one or two of them will even prove correct.
The Warriors Won't Go All-in
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The Golden State Warriors' principal assets for offseason improvement are, in some order, their No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 draft, the taxpayer mid-level exception and their $17.2 million traded player exception.
Despite the urgency created by Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, all of whom are north of 30, the Dubs won't use all those tools to improve the roster.
With news that the recently agreed-upon CBA will include relief for the costliest payrolls, it may seem that a club in Golden State's tax-hit position would be more likely to run up a bigger bill.
That said, using the TPE would still cost the Warriors much more than $17.2 million (or whatever the exact salary is of the player they take back, which cannot exceed that figure). That theoretical figure will still cost Golden State two or three times that number in tax payments. Ditto for the approximately $5.7 million TPMLE.
The bet here is that the Dubs keep their No. 2 pick and use it to select James Wiseman. Even that feels somewhat bold as it'd be quite a zag to draft a conventional center in a league uniformly zigging away from that player type. But Wiseman, if you squint, has superstar upside as a rim-defending big whose athleticism could eventually translate to defensive switchability and whose overall skill level suggests floor-stretching offense is on the table.
Golden State can draft him as a possible bridge to the post-Curry era, let its TPE expire and focus on the trade deadline and buyout markets as roster-improving tools. Later in the year, the Warriors will have a better sense of what they need and how much they're willing to spend for it.
Remember, they'll still have the Minnesota Timberwolves' top-three-protected 2021 first-rounder. If Minnesota isn't any good this year, a distinct possibility in a brutal Western Conference, that pick might be one of the most valuable deadline chips in the league.
Golden State may owe it to Curry and Co. to spend into the stratosphere, and allowing the TPE to go unused could be construed as some kind of betrayal to the championship core. But if using the TPE requires moving that No. 2 pick, well...that's a ton of money to take on for what might only be a marginal return. And if Wiseman (or whoever they select at No. 2) turns out to be a star, that's a much better outcome than spending something like $60 million in real dollars (salary plus tax) and trading the pick for Aaron Gordon.
The Warriors' window is narrowing, but they're not going to further financially bury themselves for middling improvements. This organization swings big, but it won't panic and flail away wildly this offseason.
The Lakers Will Trade for Victor Oladipo
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Kyle Kuzma may have just priced himself right out of Los Angeles.
According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, Kuzma, who is eligible for an extension, "is expecting a sizable deal." Rather than pay up for a flawed rotation player whose reputation has always outstripped his production, the Lakers now have every incentive to move him off quickly.
One way to do that: Package him with Danny Green and a future first-round pick for the expiring contract of Victor Oladipo.
The Indiana Pacers may get better offers for the two-time All-Star, but it's also possible the latest image of Oladipo, lacking bounce and looking nothing like his old self in the bubble, will linger across the league.
Though he was a deserving All-NBA honoree after the 2017-18 season, he has shown no indication he's all the way back from the ruptured quad he suffered in Jan. 2019. The bubble was a suboptimal testing ground, but Oladipo didn't look good, and that was a full year and a half after his injury.
If the rest of the league determines Oladipo is never coming all the way back, and if the Lakers are among the minority to disagree, they can justify this move as a risky buy-low swing at a third star. Los Angeles would have to weigh the possibility he could leave in free agency, rendering him a rental. But the upside scenario, in which he returns to form and fills a glaring playmaking and shot-creation role on a championship roster, is undeniably tantalizing.
At his best, Oladipo was an offense unto himself. His downhill attacks in a spread floor shredded defenses, and his work on the other end, which garnered All-Defensive love, would supercharge an already dominant Lakers defense.
Is that guy still around? Probably not. That's why the Lakers going full contrarian and expending significant assets to get him counts as bold.
Everyone's Cap Space Is Gone Within an Hour
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Under the new CBA, NBA teams can begin negotiating with free agents at 6:00 p.m. ET on Nov. 20 and then officially sign them at 12:01 p.m. ET on Nov. 22.
That lunchtime hour on Nov. 22 will see what little cap space exists disappear.
The Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons are the only clubs with easy routes to max room, while the Charlotte Hornets, Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat figure to have less than that available. They might all target Fred VanVleet, for example, but it's impossible to imagine FVV doesn't already know where he's signing—even if he's sticking with the Toronto Raptors.
The Heat made a run to the Finals, and the Suns at least made the bubble, but the rest of those clubs will have been formulating plans for almost nine months by the time the moratorium is lifted. At the risk of oversimplifying, if those teams don't know who their targets are and how much it'll take to acquire them by now, something has gone horribly wrong.
That day and a half between the start of negotiations and official signings means almost nothing. You'd better believe conversations between teams and player representatives have been happening for the better part of a year. Figuratively, if not literally, new contracts are probably already done and printed. All they need are signatures.
In 2019, SB Nation's Matt Ellentuck counted 48 deals signed for a total of nearly $3.2 billion in the first eight hours of free agency. Fewer free agents and a lack of league-wide cap space mean we won't hit those totals in 2020, but this is a bet we will see an even larger percentage of offseason signings complete in an even shorter stretch.
Teams have simply had all the time they need to get agreements in place. Add to that the premium on getting rosters set before the comically close Dec. 1 start of camps and there's just no reason for delay.
Free-agent dollars are going to disappear at speeds never seen before.
The Nets Pass on Trading for a 3rd Star...And It's the Right Call
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This one cuts against everything we think we know about the Brooklyn Nets.
Their "make a splash now, figure the rest out later" approach got them an injured Kevin Durant in the summer of 2019. Noted locker-room divider Kyrie Irving came as part of a predetermined package deal. The Steve Nash hire smacked of the same stars-or-bust thinking.
It logically follows that Brooklyn would prioritize another big name over the depth and team-friendly deals it would have to surrender in a trade for a third star.
The case for punting on that pursuit, or at least waiting until the trade deadline, is actually sound.
Teams with championship aspirations need several players who outperform their contracts. Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jarrett Allen are all great candidates to do exactly that. What's more, a team built on a pair of stars with frightening injury histories should be incentivized to retain depth. Whether those extra capable bodies allow said stars more rest during the year or keep the team afloat in the event one or both get hurt for a stretch, it makes sense to have multiple contingency plans.
Perhaps most importantly, the Nets can't be sure any of the potential stars they might target will actually be better fits. High-scoring standouts like Bradley Beal might not be quite as valuable on a team already outfitted with two scoring-title threats. Sure, it takes talent to win rings, but the best teams don't build rosters by counting up players' scoring averages and calling it good.
Balance and fit matter.
Call it naive. Call it a long-shot, overly optimistic hope that team play, chemistry and role-fillers still matter. But we're going out on a doubly thin limb and saying the Nets, expected for months to pursue a star, will call off the search this offseason.
Not only that, but it will be the right decision.
LaMelo Ball Falls out of the Top 3
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We're really flouting conventional wisdom now, pushing this guess beyond "bold" and closer to "ridiculous" on the prediction scale. But let's game it out.
LaMelo Ball is regarded by a whole lot of informed observers as the 2020 draft's top prospect. ESPN's Kevin Pelton, Mike Schmitz and Jonathan Givony are in lockstep on Ball as the best option at No. 1 overall.
So how on earth do we get to a situation in which Ball not only falls out of the top spot but also drops to fourth? It takes some work and some engagement with unlikely hypotheticals, but here goes.
It's not hard to imagine Anthony Edwards' athleticism and "James Harden Lite" potential winning the Minnesota Timberwolves over. That would leave James Wiseman for the Golden State Warriors at No. 2 and put the Charlotte Hornets on the clock.
It's within the realm of possibility that Charlotte would trade up to No. 1 to get Wiseman, so dire is its need of a big man. But if the cost is too high, we could easily see it settle on Onyeka Okongwu at No. 3.
Okongwu is an undersized 5 with high-end athleticism, good instincts and ready-to-rock switchability on D. The comparisons to Bam Adebayo have always been misguided because so much of the Miami Heat's similarly undersized center's value stems from his ability to run the offense as a passer and ball-handler—skills no one realistically expects from Okongwu. But the defensive versatility and fit for the modern game align, and Charlotte could easily wind up with the best big in the draft by taking him.
That leaves Ball on the board when the Chicago Bulls pick fourth. They'd probably take him there and assume a three-guard rotation involving him, Coby White and Zach LaVine would be exciting if not defensively viable. But at this point, even that might not be a sure thing.
Who's to say Ball's suspect shooting and lack of defensive attentiveness won't sour teams in the top five? What if his workouts and interviews continue to underwhelm? What if the teams with high lottery picks sit back and ask themselves how a ball-dominant guard who can't shoot has star potential? What if they conclude, shrewdly, he doesn't?
Again, most signs point to Ball being the top prospect in the class and the first off the board. But there's just enough room for doubt to creep in and give this bold prediction a shot of being true.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.
