Making the Case for the Second Tier of College Football Playoff Candidates
Following Notre Dame's double-overtime victory over Clemson on Saturday, there is a clear top four in the race for the College Football Playoff: Alabama, Ohio State and those two ACC schools.
By no means, though, does that mean those four teams are locked in to the CFP. There are still five weeks left in the regular season—plus the all-important conference championship week—which could overturn any number of apple carts.
So, among the many teams in the next tier of candidates that still have a perceptible CFP pulse, which makes the best case for inclusion?
Better yet, if most of the nine teams on this list were to win out, which would have the best case six weeks from now when the debate actually matters?
This isn't intended to be a ranking of candidates. Rather, the teams are simply listed in alphabetical order. We made the argument both for and against the teams liable to be knocking on the CFP door for the next month-plus.
BYU Cougars
1 of 9
The Case Against: The Schedule
While it's perfectly fair to complain that BYU has not (and will not) play a difficult schedule, it would be unfair to complain the Cougars should have tried harder.
Originally, their September schedule was going to be: at Utah, vs. Michigan State, at Arizona State and at Minnesota. That's par for the course for BYU, which had played at least three of its first four games against Power Five opponents in each of the past five years. But when the Big Ten and Pac-12 postponed the starts of their seasons, BYU was left grasping at straws. Instead, its first four games were against Navy, Troy, Louisiana Tech and UTSA.
(BYU was also supposed to play at Army, but that game got postponed. It might still be played, though the postponement of the Week 10 Army-Air Force game made that tough to do.)
Even Friday night's 51-17 win at Boise State has somewhat of an asterisk on it because the Broncos played all but the first seven minutes with a third- or fourth-string quarterback.
So if it comes down to Dec. 20 and we're debating whether the Cougars or the SEC runner-up is more deserving of the No. 4 seed, prepare to get hammered over the head with anti-BYU "difficulty of schedule" arguments.
The Case For: Zach Wilson and the Offense
There wasn't much BYU could do to control its schedule this year. All it can control is what it does against that schedule.
And, goodness gracious, have the Cougars ever handled their business.
They have averaged 45.2 points per game and have an average margin of victory of 31.1 points. Zach Wilson entered the year as an afterthought in way-too-early 2021 NFL mock drafts, and now he's a Heisman Trophy candidate who may well be the third quarterback selected in the draft. The ground game has been awesome, too, with Tyler Allgeier leading a unit averaging just under 200 yards and more than three touchdowns per game.
That dominance is a product of the schedule, but how much so? Perhaps the only proper way to find out is to put BYU in the College Football Playoff.
Cincinnati Bearcats
2 of 9
The Case Against: It's a Group of 5 Team
This glass ceiling is really the only complaint you could make about Cincinnati.
Simply by virtue of the conference the Bearcats are in, the American Athletic, they are forced to be flawless. If they have one poor performance, even if it still results in a win, it will hurt their case immensely.
Even if they have a perfect season, they're still going to be at the mercy of the Power Five conferences. It's not fair, but such is life in the era of the four-team playoff.
The Case For: Great Team with a Respectable Schedule
SMU is 7-0 aside from a 42-13 loss to Cincinnati. Army is 6-0 aside from the time it failed to score an offensive touchdown in a loss to Cincinnati.
The Bearcats also beat solid Memphis 49-10 and just outclassed Houston 38-10—the same team that held a 12-point lead late into the third quarter against BYU before it was outscored 29-0 the rest of the way.
These guys are for real. This defense has not allowed multiple touchdowns in a game except for when Austin Peay scored twice against the reserves in the fourth quarter of a blowout. And Desmond Ridder has done quite the Lamar Jackson impression over the past three weeks with five passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns, pacing an offense that is so much more potent than anyone expected.
If they continue this dominance the rest of the way, blowing out both UCF and Tulsa on the road before recording another big win over SMU in the AAC Championship Game, the selection committee will be hard-pressed to find four more deserving squads than this one.
Florida Gators
3 of 9
The Case Against: Probably Going to Be a 2-Loss Runner-Up
The Case For: Could Be a 1-Loss Champion
This one seems pretty cut and dry in both directions.
If Florida does not lose again, it will be a 10-1 SEC champion. The only teams that could possibly rank ahead of the Gators would be 11-0 Notre Dame and 9-0 Ohio State.
But if they cannot topple mighty Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, they'll have two losses and won't have a conference title. Unless every other team crumbles, that's not going to be enough. In six years, there has not yet been a multiple-loss team in the playoff.
The chaos scenario would include Florida losing one of its remaining five games before beating Alabama, thus finishing 9-2 with a conference championship.
The Gators already have a great win over Georgia and would add a second even better win over the Crimson Tide in December. Their 41-38 loss at Texas A&M was hardly an embarrassing or unforgivable one.
The big variable would be where and how that second loss transpires.
Florida's remaining schedule is: vs. Arkansas (3-3), at Vanderbilt (0-5), vs. Kentucky (2-4), at Tennessee (2-4), vs. LSU (2-3). Even if the Gators look incredible in four of those five games, a loss would be problematic if it comes to a debate between Florida, undefeated Cincinnati and, perhaps, 11-1 Notre Dame for the final spot in the playoff.
The selection committee's job is to pick the four best teams. As long as Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts are healthy, the Gators have a pretty good argument as one of them.
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Indiana Hoosiers
4 of 9
The Case Against: Difficulty of Remaining Schedule
The early returns show Indiana might be one of the 10 best teams in the country.
But the Hoosiers share a division with what might be the best team in the country, and they still have to play a road game against Ohio State on Nov. 21. Not only that, but they have a road game against Wisconsin on Dec. 5.
As things stand, I predict Indiana will be a 17-point underdog at Ohio State and—unless it upsets the Buckeyes or the Badgers crash and burn—a 10-point dog at Wisconsin. The Hoosiers' 3-0 start has been a pleasant surprise, but 8-0 still feels like an impossible quest.
The Case For: 2 Early Wins over Big Ten Titans
After three games, neither Penn State nor Michigan is anywhere near as good as most of us expected. Still, Indiana upset then-No. 8 Penn State on Oct. 24 and comfortably defeated No. 23 Michigan on Saturday—a team it had not beaten since 1987, and a team it had not beaten by double digits since 1959. The Hoosiers also had little to no trouble in their road game against Rutgers in between.
They have scored at least 36 points in each of their three games, and they're still heating up. They could barely move the ball until late in the fourth quarter against Penn State. They were better against Rutgers but still managed only 347 yards. That offense was on point against Michigan, though. When quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and running back Stevie Scott III show up like they did against the Wolverines, Indiana has a chance against anyone.
Can it beat both Ohio State and Wisconsin? Probably not.
Could it put up a fight against Ohio State and upset Wisconsin? That's much more realistic.
And if they can finish 8-1 with wins over Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin and the second-place finisher in the Big Ten West (Northwestern, maybe?) during conference championship weekend, the Hoosiers are going to have a solid argument for the No. 4 seed.
Miami Hurricanes
5 of 9
The Case Against: Lack of Style Points
When Ohio State went 12-1 and was left out of the College Football Playoff in 2018, it was because the Buckeyes were blown out in their loss to Purdue and because they had a bunch of nail-biter wins against mediocre foes.
For better or worse, Miami is following that script to a T.
Miami's lone loss (at Clemson) came against a much better opponent than Ohio State's lost to two years ago, but it doesn't change the fact that the Hurricanes were destroyed in that game. Nor does it change the fact that their past three wins—all against unranked opponents—came by a combined 20 points.
D'Eriq King has done a great job leading this team and was particularly impressive Friday against NC State. But the Canes needed each and every one of his 535 passing and rushing yards and five touchdowns to survive 44-41.
The Case For: Could Erase That Dud By Winning Rematch
Even if Miami wins out, it's not guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship Game. And without that game, it probably will not have much of a case. The Canes lost to Clemson. They don't play Notre Dame. They may well end up without a single win over a team in the final CFP Top 25.
Conversely, if they win out and do get to the ACC championship and win that game, there might not be much of a case against putting the Hurricanes in the playoff.
Whether it's Clemson, Notre Dame or Miami, a one-loss ACC champion would likely rank No. 3 behind only the SEC and Big Ten champs. The Big 12 certainly won't produce a better candidate. With a maximum of seven games played against a mediocre schedule, even an undefeated Pac-12 champ would likely land behind a one-loss ACC champion.
Maybe things get a little messy if we're talking about 10-1 Florida, 10-1 Alabama, 9-0 Ohio State, 11-1 Miami, undefeated Cincinnati and undefeated BYU. Even in that scenario, though, if Miami avenges its loss to Clemson, you have to like its chances.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
6 of 9
The Case Against: The Big 12 Stinks
Short as it was, the nonconference portion of the season was a disaster for the Big 12. Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State each went 0-1 with a loss to a team from the Sun Belt. Texas Tech allowed 572 passing yards and darn near lost to FCS Houston Baptist. Oklahoma State struggled with Tulsa. Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia each won in blowout fashion, albeit against weak competition.
By the time the teams started playing each other, the perception of the league was not great. Oklahoma's home loss to Kansas State only made matters worse. Same goes for Texas' needing a last-minute miracle to beat Texas Tech and loss to TCU.
On Oct. 4, Oklahoma State was the only undefeated team. By the time the Cowboys took the field against Texas on Halloween, they were the only team in the Big 12 with fewer than two losses. Even if they ran the table, there was going to be a "Well, yeah, they didn't play anyone in that conference" argument.
They didn't, though. They lost to Texas, which all but eliminated the Big 12 from the playoff chase.
The Case For: A 1-Loss Power 5 Champion Will Always Have a Playoff Pulse
There's not a whole lot the Cowboys can do to help their cause. They're ranked 14th in the Associated Press poll, and I'm not even sure they would be that well off in the CFP rankings. In addition to the close call against Tulsa, Oklahoma State barely survived against Iowa State and Kansas State. The offense is a far cry from what we expected, and the style points just aren't there.
But regardless of how weak the Big 12 is, if Oklahoma State wins at Oklahoma on Nov. 21, finishes the regular season 9-1 and avenges its loss to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game, it's going to wind up—at a bare minimum—in the Top 10 of the CFP rankings.
If Notre Dame beats Clemson again in the ACC championship...if Alabama soundly defeats Florida in the SEC title game...if Cincinnati loses a game...if the Pac-12 doesn't produce an undefeated champion...
Maybe that would be enough.
Texas A&M Aggies
7 of 9
The Case Against: They're Not Even Going to Play a Conference Championship Game
Similar to the argument against Miami, Texas A&M already had its chance against a CFP front-runner, and it barely bothered to show up.
At least the Aggies kept things interesting for a little while against Alabama. They were knotted at 14 early in the second quarter. Things got ugly, though, and the Crimson Tide won by four touchdowns.
Because of that result, Texas A&M needs Alabama to lose at least two of its remaining four games to have any chance of winning the SEC West, and that simply won't happen.
Now, in 2017, Alabama did make (and win) the College Football Playoff without playing its conference championship game, so there is a precedent for taking that path to a national semifinal. But that was only possible because the Big Ten and Pac-12 produced two-loss champions. The Aggies are going to need some help, because they are not all that close to the cut line for the No. 4 seed.
The Case For: They're Emerging as a Potential Juggernaut
Between a close call against Vanderbilt and the blowout loss to Alabama, Texas A&M's start to the season could not have gone much worse.
Since then, though, the Aggies have been one of the best teams in the country.
They upset a very good Florida squad. They shut down both Mississippi State and South Carolina. The quarterback-running back combo of Kellen Mond and Isaiah Spiller has powered an offense averaging nearly 40 points over the past four games.
Maybe things wouldn't be any different, but it feels like if these midseason Aggies faced Alabama now, they would put up a better fight. And if they continue to play this well in their remaining games against Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and—in particular—Auburn, the notion that they might be a top-four team will only grow stronger.
Oregon Ducks or USC Trojans
8 of 9
The Case Against: Not Enough Games and Not a Challenging Enough Schedule
The best-case scenario for the Pac-12 would be 6-0 Oregon facing 6-0 USC in the conference championship game, producing a 7-0 champ.
Would that be enough games, though, considering the ACC, Big 12 and SEC are basically playing full seasons? Even the Big Ten champion is scheduled to play 28 percent more games than the Pac-12 champion.
The bigger problem is that Oregon and USC are the only ranked teams in the Pac-12, which means they'll each play six games against unranked opponents. Even Cincinnati and BYU each already played at least one game against a ranked team, so how much will that schedule hurt the Pac-12 champion?
And will both teams actually play six regular-season games, considering the Pac-12 was only able to play four of its six games on opening weekend?
The Case For: The Committee Wouldn't Omit an Undefeated Power 5 Champion, Right?
With the Big 12 effectively out of the conversation, an undefeated Pac-12 champion could have a strong case for the No. 4 seed after the ACC, Big Ten and SEC champions.
It probably depends on who those champions are, though.
If Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State finish undefeated, that's great news for the Pac-12, because it should knock two-loss Clemson, two-loss Florida and the Big Ten West Division champ out of the mix.
However, if Clemson avenges its loss to Notre Dame or Florida knocks off Alabama, it drastically increases the likelihood the ACC or SEC will send two teams to the playoff at the Pac-12's expense.
Big Ten West Champion
9 of 9
The Case Against: It Won't Matter Unless It Beats Ohio State
There are still three undefeated teams in the Big Ten West: 3-0 Northwestern, 2-0 Purdue and 1-0 Wisconsin. That number will shrink this week with Northwestern playing at Purdue. Wisconsin also has a tough game at Michigan. But as things stand, there are three teams that could enter championship week with a zero in the loss column.
But could unranked Purdue or No. 23 Northwestern do enough in the next five weeks to get into position to crack the Top Four without knocking off the Buckeyes on Dec. 19? That seems unlikely at best.
At least No. 13 Wisconsin is within shouting distance of CFP range and has a rather difficult remaining schedule: at Michigan, at Northwestern, vs. Minnesota, vs. Indiana and at Iowa. Even though they are only scheduled to play six regular-season games, the Badgers maybe have a prayer.
Still, it seems hard to believe the selection committee would take a 6-1 team without a conference championship.
The Case For: We Need to Get to 4 Teams Somehow
If Wisconsin, Northwestern or Purdue were to finish undefeated with a win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, then, of course, it would be worthy of a spot in the CFP.
But even if we assume Ohio State wins that game, there still might be an argument.
Three years ago, Wisconsin entered the Big Ten championship with—if such a thing is possible in the Big Ten—an unimpressive undefeated record. Prior to that game against Ohio State, the Badgers had played only one game against a team that finished the year in the CFP Top 25, and it was a 33-24 home win over No. 21 Northwestern.
Though Wisconsin lost that game against Ohio State, it still ended up at No. 6, ahead of every Pac-12 team and ahead of every other team that lost its conference championship.
Perhaps something similar could happen this year and the Big Ten runner-up would actually get in with both the Big 12 and the Pac-12 highly unlikely to produce anything close to a surefire playoff candidate.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
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