NFL Playoff Predictions at the Midseason Mark

Making NFL playoff projections before the 2020 season was harder than ever. 

The league experienced major talent shake-ups with big names like Tom Brady switching teams. There was an unorthodox training camp period and no preseason as well. 

And to top it all off, the NFL made major postseason changes, adding a seventh team via a third wild card to each conference. Meaning, three postseason games apiece per conference on the opening weekend while only the No. 1 seeds get byes. 

Let's project which teams make the playoffs and go through each postseason round. 

AFC Wild Card Round

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No. 7 Indianapolis Colts (9-7) vs. No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

The lucky No. 7 slipping into the postseason here is the Philip Rivers-led Indianapolis Colts, a team that fully benefits from a putrid AFC South featuring a pair of teams with just one win. 

Rivers has been streaky at times, but a well-rounded team that has started 5-2 (plus-62 point differential) can coast while other pretenders like the Cleveland Browns fade. 

Unfortunately for the Colts, that means a date against a team worthy of the top seed in most years, the Kansas City Chiefs. And Indianapolis just isn't going to compete on the road in the cold against Patrick Mahomes, who through seven games put up a 16-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on a team with a plus-75 point differential. 

Prediction: Chiefs 35, Colts 20

No. 6 Las Vegas Raiders (9-7) vs. No. 3 Tennessee Titans (11-5)

The Las Vegas Raiders have a few things going for them in their bid for the postseason.

One is simple logistics, as the Raiders sport the easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way. Another is the brief flashes of stunning competence, highlighted by a 40-32 win over Kansas City on the road in Week 5. 

Elsewhere, the AFC South clearly belongs to the Tennessee Titans and bulldozer star running back Derrick Henry. 

Henry gashed the Raiders for 103 yards and two touchdowns on a 5.7 average in a 42-21 blowout late last season, and one can reasonably expect the same thing here in likely freezing temperatures.

Prediction: Titans 28, Raiders 24

No. 5 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) vs. No. 4 Buffalo Bills (10-6)

The Buffalo Bills have gone from backing into the playoffs in recent years to hosting a game in these projections, partially because of a breakout season from Josh Allen and partially due to a gaping hole in the AFC East where New England used to reside. 

Either way, it makes for a thrilling quarterback showcase as Allen links up with last year's MVP, Lamar Jackson. 

Call it a revenge game for Allen, too, as the Ravens took down the Bills in Buffalo in Week 14 last season. While the Ravens defense is stacked, Jackson and Co. hit a 5-1 mark early this year courtesy of beating four teams with losing records. 

This matchup ends up happening in Buffalo, much to the favor of the Bills. 

Prediction: Bills 24, Ravens 20

NFC Wild Card Round

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No. 7 Los Angeles Rams (9-7) vs. No. 2 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Two familiar foes link up for a third time out of the NFC West thanks to the altered playoff rules this season as the Los Angeles Rams head to CenturyLink Field for the second time. 

Those Rams cruised through the first half of the schedule, though things get dramatically more difficult in the second half of the season with two games against Seattle, two against Arizona and showdowns with Tampa Bay and San Francisco. 

Still, the Sean McVay-directed offense looks better than a season ago and should be good enough to lead the team to nine wins. 

And Seattle is just...Seattle. The Seahawks are more than comfortable participating in an arms race by adding the likes of Jamal Adams to their defense and coasting off another MVP-worthy season from Russell Wilson. It's business as usual for an elite squad more than familiar with this particular foe. 

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 17

No. 6 Arizona Cardinals (10-6) vs. No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)

Arizona isn't likely to catch Seattle in the NFC West over the long run, but it's clear the Cardinals are building things the right way around a potentially league-best passer by the name of Kyler Murray. 

Over five wins in seven tries, Murray has completed 66.8 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and rushed for another 437 yards and seven scores—all while backed by a defense letting up just 20.9 points per game. 

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, those big aspirations hit a brick wall with Brady coming over to the NFC. As projected, his arrival meant the Buccaneers took control of the NFC South. Looking ahead, it should be cruise control for a team fortunate enough to have a Week 13 bye before playing Minnesota, Atlanta (twice) and Detroit teams over the final four weeks. 

Momentum and a dramatic disparity in postseason quarterback experience play the biggest role in the projection here. 

Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Cardinals 20

No. 5 New Orleans Saints (10-6) vs. No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles (8-7-1) 

Call this one a formality. 

A New Orleans Saints team good enough to win its own division and led by a soon-to-be-retired Drew Brees will make short work of any team coming out of the NFC East, which could be won with a losing record.

We'll predict a winning record for the Philadelphia Eagles because they're pointing the right direction when it comes to health, which means better surroundings for Carson Wentz. They'll get to play teams from their dumpster-fire division three more times. 

But the Saints should get healthier as the season progresses too. Michael Thomas' eventual return will lead to a strong finish, and playing these Eagles in Week 14 to let Brees figure them out beforehand sure doesn't hurt. 

Prediction: Saints 40, Eagles 23

AFC Divisional Round

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No. 4 Buffalo Bills (10-6) vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

Now the big boys are out to play. 

It seemed inevitable the Pittsburgh Steelers would reenter the Super Bowl conversation with Ben Roethlisberger healthy. 

Sure enough, they are 7-0. Roethlisberger should continue to play at a high level, and his defense, which let up more than 21 points in a game just twice over the first six, shouldn't taper off much. 

While a great story and not going anywhere as a contender for a long time, Buffalo limps into this one after a physical battle with Baltimore. Poetically enough, it's the Ravens who grind down the Bills to help the Steelers.

Some of the aforementioned veteran quarterback musings apply here, too. Good as Allen has been, he's not squaring up against Devlin Hodges like he did when he took down the Steelers last year. Big Ben gets to figure out these Bills in a Week 14 matchup this year and then take it to them when it matters most. 

Prediction: Steelers 30, Bills 24

No. 3 Tennessee Titans (11-5) vs. No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

The NFL can run this matchup as back as much as it wants—the winner isn't changing if Mahomes is fully healthy. 

Mahomes shredded the Titans in last year's AFC title game, throwing for 294 yards and three touchdowns while also leading his team in rushing with another 53 yards and a score. 

One could argue the Chiefs defense that held Derrick Henry to less than four yards per carry is even better this year, too. The defense is allowing just 19 points per game and has nine interceptions. 

Which isn't to say the Titans don't stand a chance. But Arrowhead Stadium isn't kind to any opponent, and Tennessee's defense would need to perform far better than it has this season. 

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Titans 17

NFC Divisional Round

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No. 5 New Orleans Saints (10-6) vs. No. 1 Green Bay Packers (12-4)

A rematch of Week 3 doesn't seem to smile favorably on the Saints. 

Back near the start of the season, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers visited Brees and the Saints without Davante Adams and cruised to a 37-30 victory.

The Packers emerge from a bye healthy and with plenty of film to digest while hosting a dome team in the gritty cold. These Saints won't be as fresh after having to play in the opening round. 

Granted, it's bound to be a fireworks show either way, as Rodgers and Brees combined for six touchdown passes and no interceptions in their first meeting this year. But with Rodgers on his revenge tour and playing better than he has in years, he's the smart pick at home. 

Prediction: Packers 33, Saints 30

No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) vs. No. 2 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Brady vs. Wilson has a nice ring to it, right? 

A matchup worthy of the conference title game, maybe the defining factor in this hypothetical is the locale. Seattle's well-known advantage at home paints a tough picture for a Brady-led Tampa Bay team that lost two games on the road over the course of a 5-2 start, including a 34-23 backhanding by New Orleans. 

Seattle's defense could hit its stride when Jamal Adams returns from a groin injury. And the Seahawks are averaging five yards per carry, which could help them nurse a lead. 

Wilson, performancewise, has been ahead of Brady for a while now. Add in the locale, and the Seahawks should have enough juice to take this one. 

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 26

AFC Championship Game

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No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

It only feels right that a top-heavy AFC will feature the two best teams with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. 

Mahomes has been nothing if not an MVP candidate this year already, and he's backed by a steady defense. Most notably, the speed of his weapons and the concepts Andy Reid employs are so difficult to stop. 

If there's a guy who can endure an onslaught and keep his team in games, it's Big Ben. His comeback trail has been a little lost in all the noise this year, but he's made short work of contender and pretender alike. 

While the Steelers would probably like to slow down the pace of this one and limit Mahomes' chances, their running game just hasn't been all that inspired.

In Pittsburgh or not, Mahomes' spread-it-around attack (seven different players have caught at least one score) should stretch a Steelers defense thin that will be without injured linebacker Devin Bush.

Simply put, Reid and Mahomes' relentless assault will poke holes in the Pittsburgh defense and place more stress on the weapons around Big Ben than they can reasonably handle. 

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Steelers 28

NFC Championship Game

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No. 2 Seattle Seahawks (12-4) vs. No. 1 Green Bay Packers (12-4)

Here they go again. 

These two met in the divisional round last season, with Green Bay taking the home victory 28-23 behind two touchdowns from Rodgers compared to one by Wilson. 

Green Bay stunned the visitors early, jumping to a 21-3 lead before Wilson authored another comeback. It fell short, obviously, but the blueprint should be one the Packers again look to follow. 

On paper, the Seahawks have been through the proverbial ringer to this point, starting the playoffs with a third divisional game against the Rams and then fending off a surging Brady with Tampa Bay. Capping that off with a trip to Lambeau Field in freezing temperatures might be too tall an ask. 

Rodgers' apparent revenge tour, at least partially fueled by his organization's drafting his replacement in the first round, concludes with another win at home over Wilson and his visiting Seahawks. Yet again, striking early and often gets the job done, this time against a Seahawks defense that ranked last against the pass through Week 7.

Prediction: Packers 28, Seahawks 23

Super Bowl

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No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) vs. No. 1 Green Bay Packers (12-4)

If there is one thing that can counteract the combination of Mahomes and Reid for the Chiefs, it's Rodgers. 

But it's never so simple, right? 

Mahomes got through Brady late in the 2019 season on his way to hoisting a Lombardi Trophy. He's repeatedly gotten the best of contemporaries like Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson, and in these projections, he's put down Rivers and Big Ben. 

Next on the list is Rodgers.

Simply put, a shootout favors the young and speedy here, as Mahomes' ability to make plays with his feet has been critical in all the big games. So too has the speed of the weapons around him, with Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and rookie back Clyde Edwards-Helaire just too much for defenses to handle, especially with Reid at the controls. 

The Packers defense has allowed 62 points to a mediocre Minnesota team in two games, and it also allowed 30-plus to New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Mahomes should run wild en route to his second consecutive Lombardi Trophy. 

Prediction: Chiefs 35, Packers 33