Ranking the Worst NBA Draft Classes Since 2000
Some recent NBA draft classes were so chock-full of talent that it's fun to do "redrafts" to see how different things could have been.
Others were so disappointing from start to finish that it's a little nauseating to rehash all the swings and misses.
Well, grab some Pepto Bismol and join us on this trip down Painful Memory Lane as we rank the worst NBA draft classes of the past two decades.
There's no singular metric suitable for grading a draft class, but we focused primarily on career win shares and All-Star Game appearances. We also broke that data down into the top five picks, the lottery picks and "others" to help gauge whether the guys who were supposed to pan out actually did.
That doesn't mean Giannis Antetokounmpo provided less overall value to the 2013 class because he was taken outside the lottery. But it does mean we put stock into the fact that four of the 2013 lottery picks were complete busts and No. 12 pick Steven Adams is arguably the only one who has outperformed his draft position.
Generally speaking, depth is important. If a class had one surefire Hall of Famer, a handful of decent contributors and about 50 guys who amounted to nothing, it's going to be on this list. Conversely, if a class didn't have anything close to a Hall of Famer but did have a dozen guys who accumulated (or are on pace for) 50 or more career win shares, that's not going to be considered a bad class.
'Honorable' Mention: 2016 Draft Class
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It's still a little too early to throw in the towel on the 2016 class, but early returns haven't been great.
Some of the players in that class have been quite good. No. 1 pick Ben Simmons missed his first season with a foot injury, but he was named All-NBA this past season. No. 27 Pascal Siakam also made All-NBA in 2019-20. Brandon Ingram (No. 2 pick) and Domantas Sabonis (No. 11 pick) both started slow but have improved significantly and were All-Stars in Year 4. And while No. 7 pick Jamal Murray has neither All-Stars nor All-NBA honors yet in his career, he was one of the most electrifying talents in the Orlando bubble.
Here's the problem, though: The 2017 draft class has gotten basically nothing out of its No. 1 (Markelle Fultz), No. 4 (Josh Jackson), No. 8 (Frank Ntilikina), No. 9 (Dennis Smith Jr.) and No. 11 (Malik Monk) draft picks, yet in one fewer season, it has produced nearly as many total win shares (243.4) as the 2016 class (258.5).
The eight or so best players from 2016 have panned out nicely, but the rest of the bunch leaves a lot to be desired.
Twenty of the 60 players from that class have yet to log 500 minutes in the NBA, and five others who have reached that threshold did so while producing zero or negative win shares.
Again, it has only been four years. There's still time for a few late bloomers to rewrite this narrative. As things currently stand, though, it's probably one of the five worst draft classes of the last 25 years.
7. The 2004 NBA Draft Class
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First Five Picks: Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Shaun Livingston, Devin Harris
No complete and utter busts in this group. All five guys lasted at least 10 seasons in the Association. And for all the character and ROI questions that have been raised about Dwight Howard throughout his career, he's arguably the best center of the past 20 years aside from Shaquille O'Neal.
However, the other four members of this quintet just kind of hung around for a while as role players. While Howard was named an All-Star eight times, the other four combined for just one—when Devin Harris averaged 21.3 points per game in 2008-09 for a New Jersey Nets team that finished 34-48. Not one of them came close to being worth where he was drafted.
The Rest of the Lottery
No. 7 pick Luol Deng was considerably more valuable than any of the guys taken in the Nos. 2-5 range, and No. 9 pick Andre Iguodala was an outstanding second-half-of-the-lottery pickup by the Philadelphia 76ers. Directly before and after Iguodala, though, were Rafael Araujo and Luke Jackson, two of the bigger Top 10 busts of the past 20 years. Nos. 12 and 13 (Robert Swift and Sebastian Telfair) didn't amount to much, either.
Other Noteworthy Draft Picks
Seven of the best 11 players in this class were taken outside the lottery, including No. 15 pick Al Jefferson, No. 43 Trevor Ariza and No. 26 Kevin Martin. But none of those three guys was named to an All-Star Game. In fact, this entire class only produced 13 All-Star appearances, and, again, eight of those were Howard. "Superman" was the lone saving grace of this class.
6. The 2014 NBA Draft Class
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First Five Picks: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Aaron Gordon, Dante Exum
"The Process" has been sensational when healthy. He's a three-time All-Star who earned MVP votes in both 2017-18 and 2018-19. But he hasn't even averaged 35 games played per season since he was drafted, so his career win shares (22.8) don't adequately reflect how impressive he has been.
And yet, in just 209 games, he has more career win shares than any other member of this group.
Andrew Wiggins is a talented scorer making a boatload of money, but the jury is still out on whether he's actually a guy you can build a contender around. Aaron Gordon is one of the best angry dunkers in the world and a respectable defender, but he is maybe one of the 100 best players in the league. Jabari Parker has been injured even more often than Embiid. And Dante Exum has not even remotely panned out.
The Rest of the Lottery
It doesn't get any better in the Nos. 6-14 range, but it doesn't get any worse, either. That was a big help in keeping this class out of our "top" five.
While Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, Doug McDermott, Dario Saric, Zach LaVine and T.J. Warren have a combined total of zero All-Star appearances, each of those seven lottery picks has produced between 12.0-20.7 career win shares. No. 8 pick Nik Stauskas has had the least productive career in this group, and he still has more than 2,000 career points.
Aside from Embiid, not a single player from the 2014 lottery is averaging 0.1 WS/48 or better. But even the worst of these 14 guys at least amounted to a little bit of something. It's like they had one injury-plagued A-plus and then 13 C-minuses.
Other Noteworthy Draft Picks
What actually kept this class out of our "top" five were No. 41 pick Nikola Jokic and No. 25 pick Clint Capela. The former is one of the best modern centers in the game today, while the latter is one of the best old-school centers. Jokic has been both an All-Star and All-NBA in each of the past two seasons.
After six years, though, he and Embiid are the only ones selected to an All-Star Game. This class will likely move up the list in due time.
5. The 2002 NBA Draft Class
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First Five Picks: Yao Ming, Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Drew Gooden, Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Jay Williams only played one season in the NBA because of a motorcycle accident after his rookie year. Yao Ming was great when healthy, but he only played in 58 or more games in four of his eight seasons. Mike Dunleavy and Drew Gooden each had respectable, lengthy careers, but neither one was ever selected to an All-Star Game. And Nikoloz Tskitishvili had a career WS/48 ratio of minus-0.039, which was the worst of any top-five draft pick in at least 20 years.
For what it's worth, No. 6 pick Dajuan Wagner didn't amount to anything either. Tanking for draft position wasn't anywhere near as prevalent in 2002 as it is today, but you almost have to feel bad for the teams that hit rock bottom in advance of this draft class.
The Rest of the Lottery
Excluding the injury-plagued big man from China, the biggest star from this draft class was No. 9 pick Amar'e Stoudemire. The 2002-03 Rookie of the Year was a six-time All-Star who played a key role in that "Seven Seconds or Less" Mike D'Antoni offense in Phoenix. The No. 7 pick (Nene) and No. 10 pick (Caron Butler) also each lasted at least 14 seasons in the NBA, with Butler named an All-Star twice.
Along with the aforementioned Wagner, the rest of this lottery was quite forgettable. Chris Wilcox had one good year. Jared Jeffries and Fred Jones hung around for a bit, mostly as sixth men. Melvin Ely and Marcus Haislip are names most can't even remember.
Other Noteworthy Draft Picks
No. 35 pick Carlos Boozer was the only All-Star from this class selected outside the top 10. Tayshaun Prince (No. 23), Luis Scola (No. 56) and Matt Barnes (No. 46) carved out nice roles and rank among the 10 most productive players selected in 2004.
But if you tried to give an oral history of the NBA of the past two decades and completely omitted everyone from the 2004 draft class, you wouldn't be missing much aside from Yao. That he only played what effectively amounted to half of a career didn't help matters.
4. The 2006 NBA Draft Class
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First Five Picks: Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams
LaMarcus Aldridge has had an outstanding run in the NBA, averaging at least 17 points and seven rebounds per game in each of the past 13 seasons. The seven-time All-Star already ranks in the top 75 in NBA history in career points (19,599), rebounds (8,360) and blocks (1,111). He's certainly not a lock for the NBA Hall of Fame, but he's a legitimate candidate.
But the other four members of this quintet came nowhere close to being worth where they were drafted. In fact, their combined career totals in points, rebounds and assists were each less than 80 percent of what Aldridge has done. Adam Morrison is often regarded as one of the biggest busts in NBA history, with good reason. When people focus solely on Morrison's futility, though, they're blissfully ignoring Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas and Shelden Williams all finishing their careers with fewer than 20 win shares.
The Rest of the Lottery
No. 6 pick Brandon Roy might have had the best career in this draft class had it not been for a degenerative knee condition that forced him into early retirement. No. 8 pick Rudy Gay and No. 11 pick JJ Redick have had much better health and longevity, though neither one has quite done enough for All-Star or All-NBA honors.
This lottery also produced Patrick O'Bryant, Mouhamed Sene and Hilton Armstrong, who had 46 starts in their combined careers.
Other Noteworthy Draft Picks
Were these classes ranked solely on what the first 20 picks did with their careers, this one would have a case for last place. But three guys taken outside the top 20—No. 21 Rajon Rondo, No. 24 Kyle Lowry and No. 47 Paul Millsap—kept the 2006 class' cumulative grade from looking too awful. That trio has combined for 14 All-Star Game appearances and nearly 250 career win shares. No. 35 pick P.J. Tucker has also had a solid career for a guy who played internationally for five of his first six professional seasons.
3. The 2010 NBA Draft Class
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First Five Picks: John Wall, Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, Wesley Johnson, DeMarcus Cousins
From this group, we've got three semi-hits and two semi-misses.
When healthy, both John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins have been quite productive, combining for nine All-Star Games. Wall has an outside shot at making the Hall of Fame one day if he has at least five more solid years in him. And while Derrick Favors has never been named an All-Star or All-NBA, he does somehow have more career win shares (53.6) than either Wall (44.3) or Cousins (44.1).
Evan Turner and Wesley Johnson have been decidedly less successful, but it'd be harsh to call them busts in the same space where we're lamenting the careers of guys like Adam Morrison, Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Anthony Bennett.
All told, not a fantastic quintet, but most of the ones we're discussing here have been worse.
The Rest of the Lottery
Six of the nine players drafted in the Nos. 6-14 range amassed at least 27 career win shares, which is quite impressive. Thanks to the likes of No. 10 Paul George, No. 9 Gordon Hayward and No. 7 Greg Monroe, this group has combined for just under 300 career win shares. The only draft class to have done more in this range was 2001, which had Joe Johnson, Richard Jefferson and Shane Battier.
Other Noteworthy Draft Picks
This is where it gets ugly for 2010. The lottery was strong, but 30 of the 46 players taken outside the lottery either never played in the NBA (nine players) or logged fewer than 900 career minutes. The only noteworthy players drafted 15th or later were Hassan Whiteside (No. 33) and Eric Bledsoe (No. 18).
Because of that limited depth—and because Paul George is the only probable Hall of Famer in the bunch—the 2010 class has produced significantly fewer cumulative win shares (710.1) than the 2011 class (995.5) and is even below the 2012 class (759.1). Even though the top 14 picks worked out relatively well, there's just something about that information that made it feel like the 2010 class has to rank in the bottom 20 percent.
2. The 2013 NBA Draft Class
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First Five Picks: Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len
Anthony Bennett was the worst No. 1 pick in NBA draft history. You could put LaRue Martin (1972), Michael Olowokandi (1998) and Kwame Brown (2001) in that conversation, too, but it just feels extra irresponsible to whiff this badly on a No. 1 pick with the increased amount of time and money spent on recruiting, scouting and player development.
The rest of this top five hasn't been all that special, though it looks pretty swell compared to Bennett. Victor Oladipo has been selected to two All-Star Games and has developed into one of the better two-way players in the league. Otto Porter, Cody Zeller and Alex Len have been good contributors, but it feels safe to say after seven seasons that none of those three guys is destined for an All-NBA team.
The Rest of the Lottery
No. 12 pick Steven Adams has done the most among players taken in the 2013 lottery, though he has not yet been named an All-Star or All-NBA and is merely averaging 9.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game for his career. No. 10 pick CJ McCollum got out to a slow start his first two years, but he has put up at least 20 points per game in each of the past five seasons. Like Adams, though, no All-Star or All-NBA honors yet.
Those have been the two best players among these lottery picks, so, not great.
Other Noteworthy Draft Picks
While the overall impact of the 2013 lottery leaves much to be desired, at least there were two generational talents who went a little later in the draft. No. 15 pick Giannis Antetokounmpo is the two-time reigning NBA MVP and was named Defensive Player of the Year this past season. No. 27 Rudy Gobert was DPOY in each of the previous two years and has been named All-NBA in three of the last four years.
Over the past four seasons, only James Harden (58.7) has produced more win shares than Antetokounmpo (49.8) and Gobert (47.5).
1. The 2000 NBA Draft
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First Five Picks: Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer, Mike Miller
If you look solely at the No. 1 draft picks at the turn of the century, Kenyon Martin's career doesn't seem too bad. He fared much better than 1998 No. 1 pick Michael Olowokandi, as well as 2001 No. 1 pick Kwame Brown.
However, much more was expected from Martin than just one All-Star Game appearance and fewer than 10,000 career points. Marcus Fizer was a complete bust. Darius Miles and Stromile Swift weren't much better. At least Mike Miller could hit threes?
The Rest of the Lottery
No. 8 pick Jamal Crawford has had a successful two-decade run in the NBA, earning Sixth Man of the Year honors three times. In terms of total value added throughout his career, he was one of the most prominent players in this entire draft class.
Meanwhile, the other eight players selected in the Nos. 6-14 range combined for fewer career points (17,769) than Crawford scored by himself (19,419). And it's certainly not like Crawford is a Hall of Fame candidate.
Compared to every other class since then, this 2000 lottery as a whole was just plain bad.
Other Noteworthy Draft Picks
No. 16 pick Hedo Turkoglu had a fine 15-year career. No. 19 Jamaal Magloire and No. 43 Michael Redd were each selected to the 2004 All-Star Game along with Martin. And that's it. A grand total of three ASG appearances from this entire draft class.
There is no question 2000 produced the weakest crop of talent of the past 20 years, and it was very likely the worst draft class in NBA history.
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