Every MLB Team's Most Realistic Trade Chip to Deploy in 2020 Offseason
All eyes are on the World Series, but its arrival also means Major League Baseball's 2020-21 offseason is nigh.
Because teams will invariably find themselves weighing trade possibilities, we thought we'd try to pinpoint each club's most realistic trade chip.
This involved looking for major leaguers who might be getting too expensive for their clubs or who are simply expendable in some way. We also considered the possibility that some teams will instead deal from their prospect depth and asked which specific young players they might be willing to part with.
We'll proceed in alphabetical order by city.
Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Geraldo Perdomo
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Even after finishing last in the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks will probably still plan on contending in 2021.
To this end, their farm system could be their ticket to an impact addition via the trade market. We had it ranked as the No. 8 group in MLB after the August 31 trade deadline, which speaks to its depth and headlining talents.
If one of the latter is going to become trade bait, it might be shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.
The 20-year-old is likely two years from being ready for the majors, and even then he could be blocked from playing time by Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte. As such, Arizona might be willing to sell other clubs on Perdomo's potential as a future defensive wiz.
Atlanta: C Shea Langeliers
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Atlanta came this close to the World Series but couldn't hold its 3-1 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.
It stands to lose a bunch of players to free agency, including hard-hitting designated hitter-left fielder Marcell Ozuna. On the plus side, all that freed-up money could allow for ample spending on the open market.
Otherwise, Atlanta's fifth-ranked farm system could open many doors on the trade market. Right-hander Ian Anderson and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters will likely be off-limits but perhaps not catcher Shea Langeliers.
Though he and fellow catcher William Contreras are both 22, Langeliers isn't as far along in his development. That could be Atlanta's cue to cash in his value as a top-100 (i.e, No. 65 for MLB.com) prospect.
Baltimore Orioles: SP Alex Cobb
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The Baltimore Orioles have been rebuilding for several seasons and thus don't have many trade chips left to put on the table this offseason.
Still, they might get calls about Alex Cobb.
The first three years of his four-year, $57 million contract haven't exactly gone well. The right-hander has suffered injuries and put up a 5.10 ERA. After turning 33 on October 7, he also bears the stigma of being well removed from his youth.
Cobb is, however, coming off a respectable 106 ERA+ in 10 starts this season. Provided the Orioles agree to eat most of his $15 million salary for 2021, they might be able to swap him for a prospect or two.
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Boston Red Sox: LF Andrew Benintendi
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Following a disastrous season that landed them in last place in the American League East, the Boston Red Sox should arguably focus on cutting payroll this offseason.
But how?
High-priced veterans such as ace Chris Sale (Tommy John surgery) and slugger J.D. Martinez (81 OPS+) experienced significant value drops in 2020. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi helped his value this season, but the $34 million he's owed through 2021 might still make him immovable.
In lieu of one of these guys, Boston may be more likely to trade Andrew Benintendi. He followed a disappointing 2019 season with a brutal 2020, posting a 27 OPS+ in only 14 games. A change of scenery might be the best thing for the 26-year-old left fielder.
Chicago Cubs: 3B Kris Bryant
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The Chicago Cubs won the National League Central this season, only to make it three straight years without a win in the playoffs.
Change is in order on the North Side, to a point where the Cubs might even trade one of three core players: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber.
If nothing else, the Cubs stand to save the most money by moving Bryant. The 28-year-old third baseman nabbed an $18.6 million salary through arbitration for 2020. He'll make even more in 2021, which is also his final season under club control.
The catch is that Bryant torpedoed his value by authoring a 73 OPS+ in only 34 games. Nonetheless, the Cubs are bound to get offers for the 2016 NL MVP.
Chicago White Sox: RHP Reynaldo Lopez
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The Chicago White Sox completed their rebuild in 2020, winning 35 games and making the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
After spending big in free agency last offseason, the White Sox could use what they have left in their No. 15 farm system to make impact trades. But don't count on it.
Out of Chicago's top prospects, first baseman Andrew Vaughn, second baseman Nick Madrigal and right-hander Dane Dunning may be untouchable. Right-hander Michael Kopech, meanwhile, simply isn't trade bait after he opted out in 2020.
Instead, the White Sox might shop Reynaldo Lopez. The 26-year-old had a firm place in the club's future as of 2018, but he's since put up an 83 ERA+ in 41 starts. A change of scenery might be the best thing for him.
Cincinnati Reds: CF Nick Senzel
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The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs in 2020, but they failed to score even one run in a sweep by Atlanta in the Wild Card Round.
Between their punchless lineup and ace right-hander Trevor Bauer's looming free agency, the Reds will have two major issues to address this offseason. A blockbuster trade might be the solution to at least one of them.
Rather than deal one of the precious few blue-chip prospects in their No. 17 farm system, the Reds might instead look around to see if anyone wants Nick Senzel.
He's only mustered an 83 OPS+ in 127 games since arriving as a highly regarded prospect in 2019. But other teams might still view him as a must-have talent, especially given that he's only 25 and under club control through 2025.
Cleveland: SS Francisco Lindor
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By all rights, Cleveland should have no interest whatsoever in trading four-time All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor.
Alas, baseball also has a business element. In this case, what we have is a relatively small-market team that hasn't been able to sign its top star to a below-market extension. And with Lindor's free agency looming after 2021, the time to do a deal may have passed.
If there's a question, it's whether Lindor still has value worthy of a blockbuster trade after the season he just had. He played in all 60 games but slumped offensively to the tune of a career-low 102 OPS+.
Yet the answer to this question is surely a firm "yes." Down year or no, a switch-hitting shortstop with power, speed and Gold Glove Award credentials is an exceptionally rare player.
Colorado Rockies: SS Trevor Story
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After a second straight fourth-place finish in the NL West, the Colorado Rockies have much to do if they want to return to contention in 2021.
However, the big salaries on their books could make it tough to compete for free agents. To boot, they don't have much to trade in their 29th-ranked farm system.
The Rockies also missed their best chance to trade star third baseman Nolan Arenado. His $260 million contract was a big enough hurdle in its own right, and now he's coming off a shoulder injury and aย career-worstย 1.4 rWAR.
If the Rockies nonetheless pivot toward a rebuild, they might see some sense in trading shortstop Trevor Story. Though he's due for free agency after 2021, the 27-year-old has oodles of value by way of his 20.7 rWARโfourth among shortstopsโsince 2016.
Detroit Tigers: SP Matthew Boyd
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The Detroit Tigers briefly made a run at the playoffs this season, only to collapse and finish last in the American League Central for the second year in a row.
Clearly, their rebuild still needs work. And while the good news is that their farm system is now the sixth-best in MLB, the Tigers must do what they can to push it closer to the top spot.
They don't have many trade chips left to cash in, but they might generate some interest in left-handers Daniel Norris and Matthew Boyd.
Even though he finished 2020 with an ugly 6.71 ERA, other teams may still Boyd as a pitcher who could ride his wipeout slider to stardom. What's more, the 29-year-old is under team control for two more seasons.
Houston Astros: 3B Abraham Toro
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After trying and failing to pull off a 3-0 comeback in the American League Championship Series, the Houston Astros will have work to do this offseason.
They stand to lose star outfielders George Springer and Michael Brantley to free agency. They could also use a top-of-the-rotation starter after veteran ace Justin Verlander had Tommy John surgery.
Free agency might provide the Astros' best hope of filling these holes during the offseason. But if they turn to the trade market instead, Abraham Toro could be their key to a blockbuster.
Sure, he has only a 59 OPS+ in 58 major league games. But he's just 23 years old, and it was only last year when he put up a .938 OPS in the minors. Other clubs might see a potential cornerstone third baseman.
Kansas City Royals: OF/2B Whit Merrifield
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From one perspective, the Kansas City Royals are a rebuilder who'll have plenty to sell on the offseason trade market.
Yet it's not a given that the Royals will be in a rush to move any veterans. They've resisted trading any core stars, and they may only feel emboldened with their approach now that their farm system is one of the 10 best in MLB.
However, the Royals obviously can't keep other teams from calling. Especially not about Whit Merrifield.
Though it's not ideal that he'll turn 32 on January 24, Merrifield otherwise has widespread appeal via his solid two-way skills and team-friendly contract. If the Royals are willing, these things could allow him to be moved for a nice haul of talent.
Los Angeles Angels: OF Brandon Marsh
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The Los Angeles Angels need a new general manager after axing Billy Eppler, but they likely won't go in a new direction upon hiring a replacement.
Despite the team's 26-34 showing in 2020, there's no giving up and rebuilding while Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani and Jo Adell are locked in for the long haul. The trick will be to add depth around them, particularly on the mound.
The Angels may prefer to go shopping in free agency this offseason. But if they turn to the trade market, they may deem Brandon Marsh to be expendable.
He's their No. 1 prospect, yet he's looking up at Trout, Adell and Justin Upton in the outfield. The 22-year-old's solid bat and plus speed would surely interest other teams if the Angels dangle him for pitching.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 2B Gavin Lux
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The Dodgers are focused on winning their first World Series since 1988.
But no matter how that turns out, they will have some moves to make in the offseason. These could be as simple as replacing free agents such as third baseman Justin Turner and left fielder Joc Pederson. Or they might aim for upgrades that they need or simply want.
For the sake of making said upgrades, the Dodgers could move 22-year-old second baseman Gavin Lux. Though he was Baseball America'sย Minor League Player of the Year in 2019, he doesn't have a clear place in the team's plans.
As such, the Dodgers might call Cleveland to see if it is still interested in a possible Lux-for-Francisco Lindor deal.
Miami Marlins: SP Jose Urena
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Though they fell to Atlanta in the National League Division Series, the Miami Marlins nonetheless arrived as contenders this season.
The scary part is they've only begun to get talent from their third-ranked farm system. Rather than continue down that road, might the Marlins force the issue by moving some of their prospect capital in an offseason blockbuster?
Maybe, but we're not counting on it. It seems more likely the Marlins will seek additions in free agency and instead try to use the trade market to cut payroll.
For instance, they might dangle superfluous right-hander Jose Urena ahead of his final season of arbitration-eligibility. He admittedly may be more of a non-tender candidate, but that shouldn't stop Miami from trying to get something for him first.
Milwaukee Brewers: RP Josh Hader
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The Milwaukee Brewers made the playoffs in 2020, but it was despite an inept lineup and hit-or-miss pitching. Needless to say, they shouldn't aim to repeat this formula in 2021.
As for how the Brewers might proceed, arguably the best thing they can do this offseason is trade two-time All-Star closer Josh Hader.
There are certainly good arguments for holding on to him. For one thing, he's posted a 171 ERA+ and struck out 15.3 batters per nine innings in four seasons. For another, he's 26 and controlled through 2023.
Yet Hader will only be getting more expensive after earning $4.1 million via arbitration in 2020, and his velocity, strikeout rate and ERA took a turn for the worse in 2020. The time to sell high on him is now.
Minnesota Twins: LF Eddie Rosario
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Though the Minnesota Twins captured their second straight AL Central title in 2020, they still haven't won a playoff series since the 2002 ALDS.
All options should be on the table this offseason, including a trade of one of their core members. On that front, there is perhaps no candidate more obvious than left fielder Eddie Rosario.
He's hit 96 home runs over the last four seasons, and he's fresh off having achieved a much-needed boost in his walk rate. What's more, his defensive ratings lean positive.
So why trade him? Because the Twins could put uber-prospect Alex Kirilloff in his spot and save money in the process. Rosario nabbed a $7.8 million salary for 2020 and is due a raise for his final year under club control in 2021.
New York Mets: RP Edwin Diaz
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With ownership of the team about to pass from the Wilpon family to Steve Cohen, the New York Mets should be in for an exciting offseason.
There's a strong likelihood Cohen's billions will be put to use on the free-agent market. But it wouldn't hurt if the Mets also freed up some money, which they might do by moving closer Edwin Diaz.
After arriving in New York with Robinson Cano via a trade with the Seattle Mariners, Diaz flopped in 2019. To his credit, he rebounded nicely with a 244 ERA+ and 50 strikeouts in only 25.2 innings in 2020.
Nonetheless, the 26-year-old's unpredictable performances lend some logic to the idea he will be moved before he can collect a raise on the $5.1 million he made this season. Indeed, he'd be due another in 2022.
New York Yankees: C Gary Sanchez
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The New York Yankees are in for an intriguing offseason in their own right.
Three starting pitchersโMasahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and (seemingly) J.A. Happโare slated to hit free agency, along with star second baseman DJ LeMahieu. They'll also need to determine the best ways forward with catcher Gary Sanchez, left fielder Clint Frazier and third baseman Miguel Andujar.
Of the three, Sanchez is the most likely trade candidate. The 27-year-old has twice slugged over 30 homers while serving as New York's primary backstop. But he's mostly struggled on defense, and he was benched in the playoffs.
If the Yankees make him available, other teams might pounce on Sanchez as a change-of-scenery candidate who would offer power and two more seasons of club control.
Oakland Athletics: RF Stephen Piscotty
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With the Oakland Athletics, there's always the question of how they might save money in any given offseason.
That question seems especially relevant to the coming winter. Matt Chapman and Matt Olson will become arbitration-eligible for the first time. The club will also have to re-sign or replace two pending free agents: shortstop Marcus Semien and closer Liam Hendriks.
The A's might like to clear Khris Davis' $16.8 million salary, but that's a long shot. Instead, they might have to settle for offloading right fielder Stephen Piscotty.
By Oakland's standards, even his $7.6 million salaries for 2021 and 2022 are a bit much for a 29-year-old with an 89 OPS+ since 2019. Other teams, however, might like the idea of taking a chance on the former standout at those rates.
Philadelphia Phillies: SS Bryson Stott
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The Philadelphia Phillies must first hire a new GM to replace Matt Klentak, who stepped down earlier this month.
But much like the Angels, the Phillies are more or less stuck on their track. Despite a 189-195 record since 2018, they can't rebuild while Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are the heart of their core.
All the Phillies can really do is keep going all out for upgrades. If they see the trade market as their best means to that end, they might even put shortstop prospect Bryson Stott on the table.
It was only last year that the Phillies tabbed Stott with the No. 14 pick in the draft. But because he's likely two years from the majors, he might best serve their needs as a centerpiece in a win-now trade.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SP Joe Musgrove
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There isn't really a question of whether the Pittsburgh Pirates will be a seller on the offseason trade market.
They have two straight last-place finishes in their rearview mirror, and their farm system ranked in the bottom half of MLB as of the trade deadline. A team in that position has little choice but to pursue a rebuild.
The Pirates figure to shop plenty of players, but none of them may generate as much interest as right-hander Joe Musgrove.
His career track record is mixed, but he broke through in 2020 with a 116 ERA+ and 55 strikeouts in 39.2 innings. Since he won't turn 28 until December 4 and he's under team control through 2022, he checks quite a few boxes as a trade chip.
San Diego Padres: RF Wil Myers
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The San Diego Padres made the playoffs this year for the first time since 2006 and left little doubt they're merely getting started as contenders.
If the Padres have a problem, it's that they might already be spending beyond their comfort zone. Their payroll typically ranks in the bottom third of MLB. This year, it opened as the 15th-highest.
But San Diego has a golden opportunity to shed some payroll by selling high on right fielder Wil Myers.
Keeping him might seem like a better idea, given that he mashed with a 159 OPS+ and 15 homers this season. But he also has a history of inconsistency, and he'll turn 30 on December 10. As such, the Padres will probably look to move his $22.5 million salaries for 2021 and 2022.
San Francisco Giants: SP Johnny Cueto
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The San Francisco Giants are rebuilding, but they've also been surprisingly competitive in each of the last two seasons.
The latter helps explain why their farm system is only the 14th-best in MLB, as they just haven't had a proper excuse to pursue a massive sell-off. After nearly making the playoffs in 2020, they might not be willing to change course this offseason.
If the Giants do sell, though, there would be some sense in moving Johnny Cueto.
Even if they had to eat most of his salary, such a deal would rid the club's books of $22 million for 2021. It could also be an avenue to addition by subtraction, as the veteran right-hander did more harm than good in 2020 with a career-worst 79 ERA+ in 12 starts.
Seattle Mariners: RF Mitch Haniger
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Nobody loves making trades more than Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, but even he might be at a loss for how to make deals this offseason.
The Mariners have been ultra-active on the trade market in recent years, and it shows. Their farm system is now the second-best in MLB, while their major league roster has largely been plucked clean of trade chips.
But come the offseason, Dipoto might get calls about third baseman Kyle Seager and, more interestingly, right fielder Mitch Haniger.
Injuries have limited the 29-year-old to just 63 games since 2019, including zero this season. Yet Haniger's 2018 All-Star credentials and club control through 2022 might intrigue other teams, and trading him would be a means for Seattle to clear right field for top prospect Jarred Kelenic.
St. Louis Cardinals: SP Carlos Martinez
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A crucial offseason lies ahead for the St. Louis Cardinals.
They'll notably have to re-sign or replace longtime batterymates Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Otherwise, the big item on their to-do list involves improving a lineup that frequently let them down in 2019 and 2020.
It would help if the Cardinals cleared some money that they could subsequently reinvest in a big bat or two. To do that, they might start by shopping right-hander Carlos Martinez.
The 29-year-old peaked as an All-Star in 2015 and 2017 but has suffered injuries and been inconsistent over the last three seasons while working as a starter and reliever. Even at $11.7 million for 2021, other teams might like him as a change-of-scenery candidate.
Tampa Bay Rays: RP Jose Alvarado
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If the Tampa Bay Rays have their way, they'll extend the Dodgers' World Series championship drought while ending their own at 22 years.
Come the offseason, the Rays will presumably strike their usual balance between keeping their payroll in check while also hunting for hidden gems they might turn into stars. Said balance can lead and has led to some unpredictable trades in the past.
But if we must attempt to predict one, we'll involve left-handed reliever Jose Alvarado.
The Rays don't need to trade him, given that the 25-year-old is under their control through 2023. But doing so would allow them to duck his first year of arbitration-eligibility, which could result in a higher salary than Tampa Bay is willing to pay a player with his control issues.
Texas Rangers: SP Lance Lynn
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Do the Texas Rangers need to rebuild? Short answer: Yes.
They've endured four straight losing seasons since winning American League West titles in 2015 and 2016. Moreover, their farm system has devolved into one of the worst in the majors.
The Rangers' best avenue forward might involve trading slugger Joey Gallo, but perhaps not at this moment. Though his talent is beyond dispute, he wounded his stock with a .181 average and 84 OPS+ in 2020.
Lance Lynn, on the other hand, is as obvious a trade chip now as he was ahead of the August 31 deadline. After a good first season with Texas in 2019, he sent his value even higher with a 136 ERA+ and MLB-high 84 innings in 2020. The 33-year-old is also due just $9.3 million in 2021, making him an ideal one-year rental.
Toronto Blue Jays: CF Randal Grichuk
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Like the White Sox, Marlins and Padres, the Toronto Blue Jays broke out of a rebuild with a winning season and playoff berth in 2020.
The Blue Jays were, however, decidedly one-dimensional. They could hit just fine, but their pitching depth and especially their defenseโthey ranked 29th in defensive runs savedโweren't up to par.
To address these issues, Toronto might try subtracting from its primary strength in a way that frees up money and brings back talent. To wit, a trade of Randal Grichuk might do the trick.
By moving him, the Jays would get out of $10.3 million annual salaries through 2023. They'd also open a hole for a much-needed upgrade in center field without losing an essential piece from their lineup.
Washington Nationals: 3B Carter Kieboom
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After winning the World Series in 2019, the Washington Nationals didn't have the same magic in 2020. The result was a 26-34 record that tied for the worst in the NL East.
Among other things, the Nationals were plagued by Anthony Rendon's absence at the hot corner. Their third basemen put up only a .575 OPS and accounted for 0.1 rWAR.
Thus did former top prospect Carter Kieboom fumble a chance at a big break with the big club. He might, however, still serve the Nationals well as a trade chip.
For instance, Washington might try to use Kieboom as the centerpiece in a deal for Kris Bryant, who was reportedly on their radar last offseason.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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