Week 6 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Alex Ballentine@Ballentine_AlexFeatured ColumnistOctober 15, 2020

Los Angeles Rams' Cooper Kupp tries to get past Washington Football Team's Troy Apke during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2020, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Susan Walsh/Associated Press

The Tennessee Titans' beatdown of the Buffalo Bills on Tuesday night brought the number of undefeated NFL teams to four. With the Seahawks on a bye week and the Titans playing the lowly Texans that number could stay the same after Week 6. 

That would require two of the remaining undefeated teams—the Steelers and Packers—to come through in close matchups on paper. Both teams are favored by slim margins, with Pittsburgh playing host to the streaking Browns and Green Bay traveling to Tampa Bay. 

The two matchups are highlights of the Week 6 schedule, but the docket also features some matchups where some struggling teams can get back on track. 

There are some games on the other end of the spectrum that could really impact some job security and draft stock. The Giants and Washington will battle to pick up a win, while the Falcons will attempt to get win No. 1 of the season against the Vikings.

Here's a look at the complete slate with the latest odds and picks for each game. 


Week 6 Odds, Predictions

Sunday, Oct. 18

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (no line), 1 p.m. ET

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-8), 1 p.m. ET

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5), 1 p.m. ET

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (no line), 1 p.m. ET

Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m. ET

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), 1 p.m. ET

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8.5), 4:05 p.m. ET

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m. ET


Monday, Oct. 19

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (no line), 5 p.m. ET

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. ET

Odds obtained via DraftKings. Picks against the spread in bold.


Top Picks

Bengals (+8) over Colts

At first glance, this line makes a lot of sense. The Bengals sit at 1-3-1 on the season while the Colts are 3-2. And Cincinnati is coming off a 30-3 loss to the Ravens which is its worst loss of the season. 

But that doesn't paint the whole picture. The Bengals are 3-2 against the spread this season and have only lost by more than eight points just once this season. It's hard to hold any loss to the Ravens against a team, so the larger body of work says Joe Burrow and Co. can keep things close. 

Banking on the Colts to cover here means betting on Philip Rivers to play a relatively mistake-free game. At this point, that's a risky gamble in itself. He has thrown two interceptions in each of the Colts' losses and has more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four). 

The 38-year-old's mistakes haven't come with much upside, either. He has yet to throw more than one touchdown in a game this season. 

And the Bengals defense hasn't been terrible. It ranks 14th in defensive DVOA and has excelled in turning teams away in the red zone. If the offense can find some success, the defense should be able to do enough to keep the game within eight points. 


Rams (-3.5) over 49ers

The logic here is simple: If a team gets blown out by the Miami Dolphins, you can't pick them until they cover the spread. 

The 49ers have been ravaged by injuries, but there's a serious Super Bowl hangover element at play. The dynamic offense from last season is now 18th in the league in scoring, and the defense isn't doing much better. The Niners' only two wins this season have come against both New York teams. 

The Rams have been the exact opposite. After the struggle of last year, Jared Goff is playing like one of the league's top quarterbacks, and Sean McVay's offense is once again humming as the fourth offense in DVOA, and the defense is eighth. 

Nick Whalen @_NickWhalen

One QB nobody is really talking about is Jared Goff. 72.1 comp%(T-5th in NFL) 8.7 YPA(T-4th in NFL) 6 TD 2 INT 108.1 Passer rating(8th in NFL)

The Niners are at home, which hasn't meant much this season. Their only two wins have come on the road this season, and they are 0-3 at home. 

That should continue as the Rams appear to be firing on all cylinders. The struggle for the Niners is likely to continue. 


Vikings (-3.5) over Falcons

Neither the Vikings nor Falcons have gotten off to the start they would have wanted, but the latter have certainly been worse off than the former. At least Minnesota has won a game and hasn't already fired its coach. 

That's what the Falcons have done with Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff after their 0-5 start. It might be a good thing in the long run, but it won't fix the team's problems in a week.

The Falcons actually struggle with the same thing as the Vikings—neither has a secondary that can slow down opposing passing attacks

Both teams have also had exceptional play from their receiving corps to this point. 


Highest graded WR units through Wk4: 1. Vikings - 88.5 2. Bills - 81.9 3. Falcons - 78.2 https://t.co/mDV1p7yiBd

This should be a shootout with lots of points scored, but the Falcons have proved incapable of winning close games.

While the Vikings haven't done much to assuage that fear, either, they're at least at home and coming off a strong showing against one of the best teams in the league in a single-point loss to the Seahawks.