NFL Predictions Week 4: Fantasy Projections and Guide to Latest Vegas Odds

Kristopher KnoxOct 3, 2020

While Thursday night's matchup between the New York Jets and the Denver Broncos might not have been a particularly appealing contest on paper, it ended up being a fun way to kick off Week 4. There were several momentum swings, plenty of points—65 in total—and a few fine fantasy performances.

Broncos running back Melvin Gordon III, for example, ripped off a 43-yard run late in the fourth quarter to push himself to 118 scrimmage yards, two receptions and two touchdowns. Jets receiver Jamison Crowder caught seven passes for 104 yards, while Broncos wideout Tim Patrick caught six for 113 yards and a score.

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In the end, undrafted Boise State product Brett Rypien got his first win as an NFL starting quarterback. On the other side, 2018 No. 3 overall pick Sam Darnold got another loss as the Jets took another step toward earning the 2021 No. 1 draft pick.

As far as appetizers go, the Jets-Broncos tilt was far more delicious than most would have anticipated. There should be plenty more surprises—and fantasy breakouts—when the main course is served up Sunday.

Here you will find a look at the latest points-per-reception (PPR) fantasy rankings, some potential waiver-wire targets and a look at the latest lines and over/unders from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Quarterback

1. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: 350 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, 4 TD

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 300 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, 3 TDs

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 300 passing yards, 60 rushing yards, 3 TDs

4. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 275 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, 3 TDs

5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 350 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, 2 TDs

6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: 350 passing yards, 20 rushing yards, 2 TDs

7. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 300 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, 2 TDs

8. Cam Newton, New England Patriots: 200 passing yards, 60 rushing yards, 2 TDs

9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: 310 passing yards, 2 TDs

10. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams: 300 passing yards, 2 TDs

Waiver-Wire Target: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Miami Dolphins

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Nabbing a quality quarterback off the waiver wire this late in the weekend can be tricky. However, Miami Dolphins signal-caller Ryan Fitzpatrick remains available in more than 70 percent of both ESPN and Yahoo leagues.

If you're streaming quarterbacks or looking for a short-term replacement for a guy like Carson Wentz, Fitzpatrick is a perfect target. He's been a start-worthy option over the past two weeks—he has four passing touchdowns, one rushing score and no interceptions in that span—and has a terrific matchup with the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4.

Seattle has allowed an average of roughly 431 passing yards per game over the first three weeks of the season. The lowest total the Seahawks have allowed to an opposing quarterback was 397 to the New England Patriots' Cam Newton.

It wouldn't be a total shock to see Fitzpatrick finish inside the top 10 in fantasy this week.

Projection:350 passing yards, 1 TD

Running Back

1. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers: 3 receptions, 175 total yards, 2 TDs

2. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: 8 receptions, 150 total yards, 2 TDs

3. Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals: 6 receptions, 130 total yards, 2 TDs

4. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys: 6 receptions, 130 total yards, 2 TDs

5. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings: 8 receptions, 160 total yards, 1 TD

6. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: 2 receptions, 140 total yards, 2 TDs

7. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: 2 receptions, 150 total yards, 1 TD

8. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers: 6 receptions, 110 total yards, 1 TD

9. James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars: 4 receptions, 130 total yards, 1 TD

10. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: 2 receptions, 130 total yards, 1 TD

Waver-Wire Target: Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Two years ago, Patriots running back Rex Burkhead scored the game-winning touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs to send New England to Super Bowl LIII.

"It was a great game, no question about it, but you have to block it out, move on, new year, with a new team on both sides of course," Burkhead said, per Matt Vautour of MassLive.com. "We're really just looking forward to the challenge of going out there and getting after it with these guys."

Burkhead had two touchdowns in that AFC title game, and while he may not reach the end zone twice this time around, he should be a significant part of the offensive game plan. In Week 3, he had 10 targets, seven receptions, 98 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns.

The pending return of Damien Harris and James White may cut into Burkhead's usage, but expect the Patriots to utilize the shifty pass-catching back to try to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Burkhead is available in more than 50 percent of ESPN and Yahoo leagues.

Projection: 5 receptions, 70 total yards, 1 TD

Wide Receiver

1. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals: 11 receptions, 140 yards, 1 TD

2. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8 receptions, 130 yards, 1 TD

3. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: 7 receptions, 135 yards, 1 TD

4. Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys: 7 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

5. DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins: 7 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD

6. Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons: 7 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

7. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers: 6 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD

8. Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears: 6 receptions, 105 yards, 1 TD

9. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: 6 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD

10. Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams: 6 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Waiver-Wire Target: Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Laurence Kesterson/Associated Press

Cincinnati Bengals wideout Tee Higgins finally got an opportunity to shine in Week 3. He got the start in place of an inactive John Ross and caught five passes for 40 yards and a touchdown during the tie with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Higgins was targeted nine times on the day, suggesting that the Bengals and rookie quarterback Joe Burrow are eager to get him involved. That could pay big dividends for fantasy managers Sunday, when the Bengals host the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville ranks 19th in the NFL, which isn't terrible, but it has allowed seven touchdowns passes while logging just two interceptions. This makes Burrow a start-worthy quarterback and Higgins one of his biggest beneficiaries.

Higgins is available in more than 60 percent of ESPN and Yahoo leagues.

Projection: 5 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Tight End

1. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: 8 receptions, 140 yards, 1 TD

2. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: 8 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

3. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens: 7 receptions, 125 yards, 1 TD

4. Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders: 7 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

5. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles: 7 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD

6. Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

7. Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins: 6 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD

8. T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions: 6 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

9. Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys: 6 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD

10. Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans: 6 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Waiver-Wire Target: Jimmy Graham, TE, Chicago Bears

Danny Karnik/Associated Press

Chicago Bears tight end Jimmy Graham is a bit of a risk-reward play, but there aren't many tight ends still available with a day before Sunday kickoff. He's up for grabs in more than 50 percent of Yahoo and ESPN leagues and could be heavily targeted by new Bears starter Nick Foles.

Graham has been targeted at least seven times in two of his three outings this year. He's also found the end zone in two of his three games—with two touchdowns, 60 yards and six catches in Week 3. On the bust side of things, Graham had just one target, one catch and 18 yards in Week 2.

The Indianapolis Colts don't represent the most favorable matchup for Graham—they are ranked first against the pass—but if you are desperate for a tight end, Graham could work in a pinch.

Projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD

NFL Week 4 Lines, Over/Unders and predictions

Seattle Seahawks (-6, 54) at Miami Dolphins: 33-26 Seattle

Cleveland Browns (+4.5, 56) at Dallas Cowboys: 35-28 Dallas

Los Angeles Chargers (+7, 43) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 28-20 Tampa Bay

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43) at Chicago Bears: 27-22 Indianapolis

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 51) at Carolina Panthers: 36-30 Arizona

Minnesota Vikings (+4, 53.5) at Houston Texans: 30-28 Houston

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 49.5) at Cincinnati Bengals: 24-23 Jacksonville

Baltimore Ravens (-13.5, 45.5) at Washington Football Team: 33-17 Baltimore

New Orleans Saints (-4, 54.5) at Detroit Lions: 26-20 New Orleans

New York Giants (+13, 48) at Los Angeles Rams: 43-24 Los Angeles