NBA Finals 2020: Odds and Predictions for Heat vs. Lakers Series

LeBron James has the opportunity to make the Los Angeles Lakers the third franchise he has won an NBA title with, as they'll play the role of major favorites against the Miami Heat in the 2020 NBA Finals. 

The Lakers rolled through the Western Conference finals with James and Anthony Davis forming an unbeatable duo. The two paired up to beat the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets in five games each. 

The Heat will be looking to keep the magic alive. Their postseason run has been as unexpected as it is impressive. They've gotten through the Eastern Conference with a 12-3 record despite being the fifth seed. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have led the way, but six players are averaging over double digits. 

There are plenty of storylines to watch as Butler, Adebayo and Davis all make their first Finals appearances. James will face off against his old coach in Erik Spoelstra, and the resulting chess match should be fascinating as long as it lasts. 

Here's a look at the odds as we look ahead to Game 1 on Wednesday. 

2020 NBA Finals Odds

To Win the Series

• Lakers: -400 ($400 bet wins $100)
• Heat: +300 ($100 bet wins $300)

MVP

• LeBron James: -106
• Anthony Davis: +200
• Jimmy Butler: +800
• Bam Adebayo: +1100

Series Odds

• Lakers in 4: +400
• Lakers in 5: +300
• Lakers in 6: +300
• Lakers in 7: +550
• Heat in 4: +10000
• Heat in 5: +2200
• Heat in 6: +800
• Heat in 7: +650

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Predictions

LeBron James Wins MVP

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

For all the talk about LeBron James being 3-6 in the Finals, it's worth also noting that any time his team has won it, he's been named the MVP. James has played second banana to no one when it comes to his teams that have made the championship series. 

Even with Anthony Davis on his team—the best teammate he's had in the Finals since Dwyane Wade in 2011—he will need to be the conduit through which everything flows offensively. Rajon Rondo is the only other creator on the offensive end. 

As Greg Swartz of Bleacher Report noted, James has only been a favorite heading into the Finals twice. In 2011 against the Dallas Mavericks when he and the Heat lost, and in 2013 against the San Antonio Spurs.

So whether he is triumphant in the Finals has generally come down to whether his supporting cast rises to the occasion. He has played at or above his expected level, and that isn't likely to change against the Heat. 

If there is a coach who could scheme up a way to slow King James down, it should be Erik Spoelstra. As James' coach when he was with the Heat, he should have intimate knowledge of his game, and Miami's zone defense has already given teams fits in the postseason. 

Even so, expect James to routinely get triple-doubles in this series and be the one hoisting the MVP trophy when it's all over. If they win another one after this, it could be with Davis leading the way, but James is still the leader of this team at this point. 

Lakers Win the Series 4-2

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The dynamic in this series is something we've seen play out repeatedly. It's the classic question of stars vs. team basketball. James and Davis are the best players on either roster, but the Heat are the deeper team. 

The Heat can't be discounted, though. They have been strong defensively through the playoffs and can throw different defenders and strategies at James. They've had success with 2-3 zone looks, but even if they choose to go the more traditional route, they can ostensibly have Butler, Adebayo and Andre Iguodala guard James on any possession. 

Then there's the intangibles the Heat bring to the table that don't show up in the box score. They're gritty and fiercely competitive. That's the only way to advance to the Finals as the lower seed in every round. Pat Riley and Spoelstra already built that culture, but Butler has cemented it. 

"Everybody in the league has always known that he impacts winning. It’s not about stats. It’s not about anything else. He cares," Spoelstra said of his team's veteran leader, per Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times. "And for us, that’s our language."

For all of those intangibles, the defensive prowess and the emergence of Adebayo as a star-level player, the Heat still have an uphill battle ahead. The Lakers have been the most complete team throughout the playoffs, with a net-rating of 7.7 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics were the next best team at 5.3, while the Heat check-in at 4.5. 

The Lakers aren't as diverse as the Heat on the defensive end, but they don't have to be. Davis is one of the best rim protectors in the league and averaging 1.2 blocks per game in the postseason. Even when he's not on the floor, Frank Vogel can trust Javale McGee or Dwight Howard to challenge the Heat at the rim. 

The Heat have enough to make the games themselves interesting and competitive, but it's hard to envision them coming up with a way to take four games. Pushing the series to six shouldn't be surprising even if James and Davis prove too much.