Ranking the Heisman Favorites Heading into College Football's Week 4
Have you given any thought to the weirdness surrounding this year's Heisman Trophy race?
Clemson's star quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, has gotten out to a solid start, and that should continue over the next four weeks with games against Virginia, Miami and Georgia Tech on tap. There's a good chance Clemson will be 5-0 and that its quarterback will have a passer efficiency rating somewhere in the vicinity of 200.
And it's at that point when co-preseason favorite Justin Fields and Ohio State will play their first game of the season.
Will it be an "absence makes the heart grow fonder" sort of situation in which the Big Ten's late start helps his case, or will it be too little, too late when he jumps into a pool of players who have already played half a season?
Even if Fields swoops in and catches fire, he'll only play in nine games (assuming a trip to the Big Ten championship), while the teams that reach the Big 12 and SEC championships will play 11 and the ACC finalists will play 12. Will that disparity become a factor in either direction, or will we simply adapt and discuss stats like yards per attempt and total touchdowns per game?
As we enter Week 4 of the 2020 college football season, those answers are still unclear. But several stars have already been quite impressive, and we expect several others to do the same once they take the field. Then, perhaps by early December, this will all dovetail into a race for the ages.
6. The Expected-to-Thrive-Soon Transfer: JT Daniels, Georgia
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Let's recap what has been a whirlwind of an offseason for Georgia's quarterback situation.
Jan. 8: Jake Fromm declares for the NFL draft. No surprise there, but it temporarily meant the Bulldogs would enter spring camp trying to decide whether Fromm's 2019 backup, Stetson Bennett; redshirt freshman D'Wan Mathis (who missed last season following surgery to remove a brain cyst); or true freshman Carson Beck was most deserving of the job.
Jan. 11: Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman chooses Georgia and immediately becomes the favorite to start.
Mar. 13: COVID-19 pandemic cancels Georgia's spring camp before it had a chance to begin.
May 28: USC transfer JT Daniels chooses Georgia, though it's unclear whether he will be immediately eligible or healthy enough to play. (Daniels suffered a torn ACL in Week 1 of the 2019 season.)
July 13: Daniels is ruled immediately eligible, creating quite the "which transfer do we start" dilemma for the UGA staff.
Sep. 3: Newman opts out of 2020 season to prepare for 2021 NFL draft, leaving Daniels as the presumed starter.
Present: Daniels still has not been medically cleared to play, so it looks like Mathis will be the starter for the opener against Arkansas.
Maybe Mathis is impressive enough Saturday to keep the job, but the assumption is Daniels will be good to go soon and that the starting gig will then belong to the 5-star recruit who started Week 1 of the 2018 season as an 18-year-old true freshman.
If that's the case, he will immediately join Rattler, Ehlinger and King in the second tier of candidates to win the Heisman, by virtue of his talent ceiling and his position as the starting quarterback of one of the top threats to win the national championship. He better improve that career 15-11 TD-INT ratio, though.
5. The Already Thriving Transfer: D'Eriq King, Miami
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D'Eriq King put on a clinic in 2018 as a junior at Houston. Despite suffering a torn meniscus in the first half of his 11th game of the season, King racked up a combined 50 passing and rushing touchdowns. He had three games with at least 400 passing yards, three games with at least 100 rushing yards and four games with at least six total touchdowns.
He hasn't been that proficient at Miami. Through two games, he has 466 passing yards, 92 rushing yards and five total touchdowns. That was more or less a great single-game performance for him two years ago.
However, he has already received substantially more national attention at The U than he did while with the Cougars, which is a big deal for a trophy that is largely awarded based on popularity. And if he shines this weekend in a Miami win over Florida State, that will further boost his chance of winning the Heisman.
It's really going to boil down to what King and Miami can do against Clemson on Oct. 10, though.
When Lamar Jackson won the Heisman in 2016, he had 457 total yards and three touchdowns in an excruciatingly close loss to the eventual national champion Tigers. The video game numbers Jackson put up in September got him into the conversation, but that performance in October was when his stiff-armed trophy began to seem inevitable.
King obviously can't win the Heisman against Clemson, but that game will let us know whether he's one of the top three candidates or an afterthought.
4. The Elder Big 12 Gunslinger: Sam Ehlinger, Texas
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You can't ask for much more than what Sam Ehlinger did in Texas' 59-3 season-opening victory over UTEP.
On the first play of the Longhorns' season, Ehlinger connected with Joshua Moore on a slant route for a 78-yard touchdown. By halftime, it was 45-3 and he had 424 passing yards and five touchdown throws (to five different receivers). He added a two-yard pass on the first drive of the third quarter before spending the rest of the blowout on the sideline.
Sure, it was against UTEP, a team that has a 1-34 record against FBS opponents since the start of the 2017 season.
However, putting up ridiculous numbers in one half of a season opener against UTEP is a page ripped straight out of the Baker Mayfield Heisman playbook. In the first game of his 2017 Heisman campaign, Mayfield completed 19 of 20 passes for 329 yards and three touchdowns against the helpless Miners. And at the end of the season, there wasn't anyone saying, "Yeah, well, you gotta remember his stats are inflated by that first game against UTEP."
And Ehlinger put up even better numbers. In fact, they were the best numbers of his career, both in passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Not too shabby for 30 minutes (plus one more possession) of work.
Texas draws Texas Tech this week, which allowed Houston Baptist to throw for 572 yards two weeks ago. In other words, this is probably going to be your last chance to get Ehlinger at 10-1 odds or longer.
3. The Young Big 12 Gunslinger: Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
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The Sept. 12 game against Missouri State wasn't quite Spencer Rattler's collegiate debut. He had 11 pass attempts last season, spread out across the fourth quarters of three games that were each decided by at least five touchdowns. But there's no question he was the biggest unknown among the top 10 Heisman candidates in the preseason.
Rattler was a highly-touted recruit, and an Oklahoma quarterback has finished in the top four of the Heisman vote for five consecutive years. That combination made him an obvious candidate, but it didn't guarantee he would become a star.
It didn't take long to find out he was worthy of the hype, though.
Rattler had 290 passing yards and four touchdowns in the first half of the blowout win.
He had a 58-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Mims and a 53-yard touchdown strike to Charleston Rambo. Both balls traveled at least 45 yards in the air, but he made the throws look so effortless.
Perhaps those receivers had a little more space than usual thanks to the (lack of) strength of the opponent, but the beautiful throws had nothing to do with the coverage. This redshirt freshman will have some highlight-reel moments in every game he plays.
Can't wait to see what he does this weekend to a Kansas State secondary that allowed 330 passing yards and five touchdowns to Arkansas State.
2. The Suddenly Back-from-the-Dead Co-Favorite: Justin Fields, Ohio State
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Until the Big Ten temporarily postponed its season on August 11, Justin Fields had spent the entire offseason alongside Lawrence as a co-favorite to win the Heisman.
After about five weeks off the board with the Big Ten's future unknown, Fields immediately slots back in as a top candidate.
And why not? Before a tough game against Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl, Fields had 40 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns, just one interception and a 190.28 passer efficiency rating for a 13-0 Buckeyes team. Joe Burrow understandably ran away with the Heisman, but Fields was ridiculously efficient, picking up right where Dwayne Haskins left off.
Fields was one of three Buckeyes to finish in the top six in the Heisman vote last year, and as far as vote splits are concerned, he should benefit from the departures of J.K. Dobbins and Chase Young. If the Buckeyes enter the postseason with a zero in the loss column once again, Fields will be more lauded as the primary driving force for that team.
As is the case for Lawrence, the biggest problem facing Fields is limited usage as a result of team dominance. He's wildly efficient, but he was only averaging 23.7 pass attempts and 227 passing yards per game at the time of last year's Heisman vote. Burrow was at 33.8 and 363, respectively. Both Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield were north of 26 attempts and 310 yards when they won. Even Lamar Jackson (29.4 and 260.8) was well ahead of Fields in passes and yards, and he was three times the rushing threat that Fields is.
If it's really just Lawrence vs. Fields in the end, that wouldn't be a problem. But there will probably be a Spencer Rattler or a Sam Ehlinger type of guy who throws for around a million yards for a team that finishes not that far behind Ohio State and Clemson in the College Football Playoff standings. Fields is going to need to put up more yards this year if he expects to keep those stat-sheet stuffers at bay.
1. The Favorite: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
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To no one's surprise, Trevor Lawrence has been awesome through Clemson's first two games.
And perhaps one of these days, he'll need to take a snap in the fourth quarter.
Lawrence was crisp in the opener against Wake Forest. He only had one passing touchdown, but that's because both Amari Rodgers and Frank Ladson Jr. dropped should-have-been scores in the end zone. He still completed 22 of 28 passes for 351 yards and added a pair of rushing touchdowns.
Then, in the 49-0 win over The Citadel, Lawrence had 168 passing yards and three touchdowns on just nine pass attempts. He added a fourth touchdown on a two-yard rush.
All told, that's seven touchdowns, seven incompletions and a rate of 14.0 yards per pass attempt.
That'll do.
Ideally, though, Lawrence will start putting up more yards. The 81.1 percent completion rate and the 234.6 passer efficiency rating are mighty impressive, but 248.5 combined passing and rushing yards per game doesn't exactly scream "Heisman!"
At the time of last year's Heisman vote, Lawrence was at 273 total yards per game with a 68.8 percent completion rate for a 13-0 title contender—and he finished in a distant seventh place. And it's not like he was some unexpected late bloomer. Lawrence entered the season neck-and-neck with Tua Tagovailoa as Heisman favorites. It's just hard to get and maintain Heisman buzz if you're neither putting up gargantuan numbers nor consistently facing and defeating quality opponents.
Then again, if he keeps completing 81 percent of his passes 14 yards at a time, the total yards per game would be an irrelevant detail in an immaculate season.
Others Worth Considering
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Mac Jones, QB, Alabama OR Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Fun fact: A Heisman has never been awarded to an Alabama quarterback. With the way the Crimson Tide offense has flourished the past few years, though, it seems inevitable. Half the battle here is picking the correct Alabama quarterback. Mac Jones will get the first crack at it, but never forget that Jalen Hurts won the starting job in the first game of his true freshman season.
Malik Cunningham, QB, Louisville
Cunningham was a long shot two weeks ago, but opening the season with back-to-back games of more than 300 yards passing and three touchdowns is a highly recommended way to get noticed. Though last week's loss to Miami probably didn't help his case, stats like those will keep him in the mix.
Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
After throwing for multiple touchdowns in all 13 games of his true freshman season, Howell had just one touchdown and two interceptions in North Carolina's first game against Syracuse. That's not a promising start, but there's plenty of time left to turn things around in what should be a strong season for North Carolina.
Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M
Mond averaged 275 combined passing and rushing yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game as a sophomore. Those stats dipped to 261 and 2.2, respectively, last season. Numbers like those won't get him anywhere close to the Heisman. But you have to at least consider an experienced starting quarterback on a fringe CFP contender. If he does take a step forward, he'll have plenty of opportunities to showcase his talent against marquee opponents.
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Chuba Hubbard's season debut for Oklahoma State (93 rushing yards, one touchdown) was hardly a thing of beauty, and while Clemson's Travis Etienne had a respectable first two games (170 rushing yards, 58 receiving yards, one touchdown), those aren't Heisman-worthy numbers. Thus, in a weird way, Najee Harris has benefited from the SEC's late start and has emerged as the best non-quarterback Heisman candidate. If he can storm out of the gates with a 150-yard, two-touchdown performance against Missouri, game on.
Stranger Things Have Happened
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Dillon Gabriel, QB, UCF
What's less likely: A Group of Five team making the College Football Playoff or a Group of Five player winning the Heisman? Maybe Dillon Gabriel could do both? He threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns in UCF's road win over Georgia Tech, and he'll get a lot of attention if he keeps slinging it. UCF's McKenzie Milton finished in the top 10 in the Heisman vote in both 2017 and 2018.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
If you're picking someone to make it back-to-back Heismans for LSU, the most likely choice is quarterback Myles Brennan. But like Ohio State's Chase Young last year, Stingley will get some serious consideration if LSU thrives on defense. Stingley has easily been the most frequently mentioned individual defender of the past eight months, and he's just about the only player on LSU's roster who most fans even recognize.
K.J. Costello, QB, Mississippi State
Far be it from me to place a Heisman bet on a player from a team that might be lucky to win 50 percent of its games. But on the off chance Mississippi State pulls off an upset or two, goes 7-3 and flirts with a Top 15 ranking, you just know that Mike Leach's starting quarterback will put up ridiculous numbers. Costello averaged better than 270 passing yards per game at Stanford in 2018. In this system, he might average 400.
Jaylen Waddle, WR/PR, Alabama
Waddle is the most exciting player in the nation. On just 59 touches last season, he racked up 1,227 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns. And now he's going to become one of the go-to players in Alabama's offense. Good luck winning the Heisman as a wide receiver, though. That hasn't been done since Desmond Howard (also a sensational return man) did so in 1991.
Zamir White, RB, Georgia
White managed just 408 rushing yards as one of D'Andre Swift's backups last season, but the 2018 Top 10 overall recruit should inherit the lion's share of Georgia's backfield work this year. He's a deep sleeper in a season loaded with well-established returning running backs, but he has the raw talent to simply explode onto the national scene this weekend against Arkansas.
Recruit ratings via 247Sports.
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