How Realistic Are MLB Fans' Bold Predictions for the Remainder of 2020 Season?
With just three weeks remaining in the 2020 MLB season, it's time for another round of bold predictions.
This time around, we turned to the Bleacher Report app to crowdsource said predictions for this week's MLB mailbag article.
The responses ranged from teams currently on the outside looking in who will claim a playoff spot to dark-horse award candidates and long-shot statistical leaders.
We picked the most compelling predictions, provided some analysis and then placed a percentage chance on each prediction actually coming true.
Thanks to everyone who participated in this week's crowdsourcing thread on the app. Be on the lookout every Tuesday afternoon for your chance to weigh in on the newest topic.
Now let's get to it.
Eugenio Suarez Reaches 20 Home Runs
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Bold Prediction: "Eugenio Suarez finishes scorching hot and ends the year with 20 homers." (@nathan_barron)
After a three-homer game on Saturday that was part of a four-homer series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Eugenio Suarez is now at 12 long balls on the season.
One of the big debates heading into the shortened 60-game season was how many home runs it would take to lead the league and whether anyone would get to 20 on the year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Trout currently lead the majors with 15 apiece, while Mookie Betts and Marcell Ozuna are tied for second in the National League with 13 each. That leaves Suarez fourth in the NL as part of a cluster of players with 12.
Of that total, nine have come in his last 16 games. So with 19 games to play, he's within striking distance if he keeps swinging a hot bat.
Last season, Suarez hit 32 of his 49 home runs after July 1, and he showed the ability to go on a binge with three different instances of three-plus consecutive games with a long ball.
If someone is going to finish with a flourish and reach the 20-homer mark, Suarez is more than capable of being that guy.
Chances it Happens: 25 percent
Corey Seager Wins the NL Batting Title
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Bold Prediction: "Corey Seager wins NL batting title." (@ryty4)
Corey Seager is having a fantastic season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, hitting .331/.377/.634 for a 168 OPS+ with 11 home runs and 31 RBI.
That .331 batting average is good for fourth in the NL batting title race, so this might not seem like the boldest prediction. But he has a lot of ground to make up in a short time.
Here's a look at the NL leaderboard:
- Trea Turner: .362 BA
- Michael Conforto: .348 BA
- Donovan Solano: .341 BA
- Corey Seager: .331 BA
- Charlie Blackmon: .327 BA
Turner is 10-for-26 in his last six games, so he's showing no signs of slowing down.
At the same time, Seager is hitting .417 during his current nine-game hitting streak, raising his average 29 points in the process.
File this one under unlikely, though it's far from impossible.
Chances it Happens: 15 percent
Ian Anderson Wins NL Rookie of the Year
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Bold Prediction: "Ian Anderson wins NL Rookie of the Year." (@CHYTnUP)
The Atlanta Braves have already used 11 different starting pitchers this year, and breakout ace Max Fried was just placed on the injured list with a left side injury.
It's not hyperbole to say rookie right-hander Ian Anderson is the biggest X-factor on the roster right now.
The No. 44 prospect in baseball at the start of the year, according to Baseball America, Anderson made his MLB debut on Aug. 26, hoping to bolster a battered and bruised starting staff.
The 22-year-old allowed just one hit and one earned run over six innings in his first start, and he's continued to impress since, going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings.
As important as he will be to the team's success going forward, he has a long way to go to catch San Diego Padres super-utility man Jake Cronenworth in the NL Rookie of the Year race.
Cronenworth is hitting .325/.378/.561 for a 155 OPS+ in 135 plate appearances. He's tallied 18 extra-base hits, and his 1.9 WAR is right in line with standout American League rookies Luis Robert (2.0) and Kyle Lewis (1.5).
Unless he goes ice-cold over the final three weeks, it looks like Cronenworth has the award locked up.
Chances it Happens: 15 percent
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Clayton Kershaw Wins NL Cy Young
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Bold Prediction: "Clayton Kershaw will capture his fourth Cy Young and finish in the top 10 in NL MVP voting." (@southpaw1)
Clayton Kershaw has come a long way this season since he was scratched from his Opening Day start at the last minute with back stiffness.
The 32-year-old missed the first nine games of the season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he failed to complete the sixth inning in each of his first two starts, allowing 10 hits and four earned runs in 10 innings.
In his four starts since, he's been virtually unhittable:
- Aug. 14 (@LAA): 7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
- Aug. 20 (@SEA): 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K
- Aug. 27 (@SF): 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
- Sept. 3 (vs. ARI): 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
During that four-start stretch, he has a 0.69 ERA, 0.58 WHIP and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings while holding opposing hitters to a .115 average and .390 OPS.
He's still chasing Yu Darvish (7-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 63 K, 50.0 IP) and Jacob deGrom (3-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 70 K, 48.0 IP) at this point, and the fact he hasn't pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title hurts his case.
Assuming that changesโhe's at 36 innings pitched and will need to reach 60 by season's end to qualifyโhe should be right in the thick of the balloting.
Chances it Happens: 33 percent
Tim Anderson Wins AL MVP
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Bold Prediction: "Tim Anderson gets another batting title to lead him to AL MVP." (@kinglabno19)
In last week's mailbag article, we asked for readers' AL and NL MVP picks.
Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu received the second-highest vote total on the AL side of things, trailing Cleveland Indians pitcher and AL Cy Young front-runner Shane Bieber.
Meanwhile, teammate Tim Anderson didn't receive a single vote.
So, which South Side standout is actually the best MVP candidate? Here's a quick side-by-side look at some of their notable numbers:
Abreu leads the AL in hits (53), RBI (40) and total bases (104), and he's tops among AL position players in WAR (2.2). That said, Anderson is not far behind with 1.8 WAR, and he's been swinging it as well as anyone with a .440 average and 1.064 OPS in 28 plate appearances since the calendar flipped to September.
There's some risk here of the two players splitting votes, and Bieber remains a legitimate candidate to claim AL MVP honors. But it's safe to say Anderson has as good a chance of winning the award as anyone in a wide-open field.
As for the AL batting title, Anderson is currently chasing DJ LeMahieu (.362), but those two are well ahead of Nelson Cruz (.329) in third place. It looks like a two-horse race for the moment.
Chances it Happens: 20 percent
Michael Conforto Wins NL MVP
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Bold Prediction: "Michael Conforto will continue his scorching hot streak all the way to an MVP award." (@jcohen05)
New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto has indeed been on a tear, and his month-by-month production this year perfectly illustrates his upward trajectory:
- July: 33 PA, .286/.394/.429, 2 XBH (1 HR)
- Aug: 112 PA, .326/.429/.516, 10 XBH (4 HR)
- Sept: 34 PA, .469/.500/.813, 7 XBH (2 HR)
The 27-year-old is hitting .348/.436/.561 overall for a 174 OPS+ that ranks fourth among qualified NL hitters. He has four multi-hit games in September, and his 15 hits so far this month lead all of baseball.
Can he chase down San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr.?
Tatis currently has a higher OPS+ (188), and he leads the NL in home runs (15), RBI (39), runs scored (43) and total bases (112), all while playing for a postseason-bound squad.
Conforto faces an uphill battle in the NL MVP race, but it's hard to count him out as long as he's swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball.
Chances it Happens: 18 percent
Seattle Mariners Make the Playoffs
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Bold Prediction: "Yankees miss the playoffs by one game...behind the Mariners and Cy Young candidate Marco Gonzales." (@drichwine)
This would have sounded absurd at the start of the 2020 season.
The New York Yankees were fresh off a 103-win season and heavily favored to win the AL pennant, while the Seattle Mariners were coming off a 94-loss season and still in the process of rebuilding.
However, the two teams are separated by just two games in the standings, and they currently sit in the No. 8 and No. 10 spots in the AL playoff picture.
The Yankees have been trending in the wrong direction for weeks with a 5-14 record in their last 19 games, while the Mariners are moving in the other direction, 11-3 in their last 14 and currently sporting a six-game winning streak.
FanGraphs still has the Yankees' playoff odds at 89.1 percent, compared to a meager 6.7 percent chance for the Mariners, but the gap isn't nearly that wide right now.
As for Seattle ace Marco Gonzales, he's not going to give Shane Bieber a serious run for AL Cy Young honors, but he should show up on plenty of ballots. The left-hander ranks among the AL leaders in ERA (3.02, seventh) and WHIP (0.87, third) with a sparkling 46-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50.2 innings.
Chances it Happens: 35 percent
New York Mets Make the Playoffs
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Bold Prediction: "Pete Alonso leads the league in homers as Todd Frazier turns out to be the clubhouse leader the Mets need to propel them into the No. 2 spot in the NL East." (@dcamp5)
The New York Mets were 15-21 on Sept. 1, and even with their current 4-2 stretch, they are still below .500 and in fourth place in the NL East.
However, just four games separate them from the Philadelphia Phillies and second place, which is an automatic ticket to the postseason under this year's expanded 16-team playoff format.
The Mets have three more head-to-head games with the Phillies, and they close out the regular season with four games against a struggling Washington Nationals team.
Veteran Todd Frazier was added along with catcher Robinson Chirinos from the Texas Rangers in an under-the-radar trade-deadline move.
Frazier, 34, spent the 2018 and 2019 seasons with the Mets, and he is widely regarded as one of the better clubhouse presences in baseball.
He's 3-for-13 with two doubles and a home run in his first three games back in a Mets uniform, and he could be the glue guy the team needed to help find the consistency it's been lacking all season.
As for Pete Alonso leading the NL in home runs, he's currently five behind Fernando Tatis Jr. for the top spot. But he's also homered four times in his last five games, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Chances it Happens: 20 percent
Los Angeles Angels Make the Playoffs
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Bold Prediction: "Angels turn things around with an easy schedule and make the playoffs." (@bht27)
A few weeks ago, the Los Angeles Angels had the worst record in the American League after a 2-10 stretch dropped their record to 9-21 entering play on Aug. 25.
They still have a ways to go to climb back into the playoff picture with a 4.5-game deficit and a lot of traffic ahead of them to climb into a wild-card spot, but they are trending in the right direction. The Halos are currently riding a five-game winning streak after sweeping a four-game series with the Houston Astros, and they've gone 7-3 in their last 10 games.
They face the Texas Rangersโa team that has seemingly forgotten how to play baseball entirely with a 3-18 record in its last 21 gamesโseven more times. They also have three games each against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies, two teams that are also trending in the wrong direction.
An improved starting rotation behind AL Cy Young candidate Dylan Bundy has made a world of difference, with Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Julio Teheran and Jaime Barria all throwing the ball well over their last two starts.
Despite their recent run, FanGraphs still gives the Angels just a 7.9 percent chance to reach the postseason, which is at least a respectable uptick from the 1.0 percent chance they were given on Sept. 1.
Chances it Happens: 25 percent
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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