Ranking the 10 MLB Stars Most Likely to Be Traded in 2020-21 Offseason
The stretch run of the 2020 MLB season should provide ample drama, as clubs jockey for position in the expanded 16-team playoff field and push toward a wild October.
While we wait for that action to unfold, let's gaze ahead at the upcoming offseason and rank the 10 stars who are most likely to be traded.
Rankings as subjective but are based on credible rumors about the player's potential availability, his contract status and his team's needs and payroll situation. We'll rate each player's chances of being dealt on a scale of "low," "medium" or "high."
Not all of these guys will necessarily swap laundry before the 2021 campaign commences, but any of them could. And if they do, it will measurably shift baseball's balance of power.
No. 10: Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers are hovering around .500 and in the mix for a National League playoff spot. If they reach the dance, they'll be glad to have closer Josh Hader.
The 26-year-old left-hander is a dangerous weapon, as he's demonstrated with 11.2 hitless innings in 12 appearances to begin the season, an MLB record.
Hader is a two-time All-Star and one of the most dominant relievers in the game. He's also controllable through 2023.
His name has floated through the rumor mill multiple times, including in the lead-up to this year's Aug. 31 trade deadline. Yet the Brewers' asking price has reportedly remained sky-high, per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal.
Expect to hear him mentioned in trade chatter again this winter, and don't discount the possibility of a relief-hungry contender with a deep farm system, such as the San Diego Padres, paying what it takes to land him.
That said, considering he's got two seasons left before he reaches free agency, the Brewers will have no urgency to move him for anything less than a king's ransom.
Chances he'll be traded: Low
No. 9: Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
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Whit Merrfield has paced baseball in hits each of the past two seasons and has eight doubles and seven home runs in 2020. He's a versatile defender who can play the infield and outfield and is locked into an affordable contract that runs through 2023 with a $10.5 million club option in its final season.
Merrifield will also turn 32 in January and plays for a rebuilding Kansas City Royals team that's likely a few years from serious contention.
So, naturally, Merrifield's name features frequently in trade speculation.
On paper, it makes sense for K.C. to sell high on a player who would interest any number of suitors but could be into his mid-30s before the Royals field their next playoff team.
That said, Merrifield is a fan and front-office favorite, and up to now Kansas City has resisted the urge to deal him. That could change this winter, but it would probably require a suitor to pay handsomely in prospects and MLB-ready talent.
Chances he'll be traded: Low
No. 8: Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
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The rebuilding Seattle Mariners predictably went into sell mode at the trade deadline but held on to Kyle Seager.
The 32-year-old third baseman has an .816 OPS with five home runs and 10 doubles this season. He's owed $18.5 million in 2021 with a $15 million team option for 2022 that becomes a player option if he's traded. That's not chump change, but he would represent an upgrade at the hot corner for an array of contenders, including Atlanta.
Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto could revisit a Seager swap this winter, though as MLB.com's Greg Johns outlined, "The Mariners have shown a willingness to take on some of the remaining money to deal other veterans, but they don't have any elite third base prospect waiting in the wings, and Seager has been a steadying force on this young club."
Translation: The M's won't trade Seager just to trade him. The return would need to be substantial. Given his age and contract status, buyers could balk.
But considering his pedigree (he's got a Gold Glove and an All-Star appearance) and solid 2020 output, don't be surprised if multiple clubs come calling.
Chances he'll be traded: Low
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No. 7: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox are in last place in the American League East. They sold pieces before the deadline, including closer Brandon Workman and veteran slugger Mitch Moreland after trading franchise right fielder Mookie Betts and left-hander David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers in February.
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts also featured in trade chatter, but he remains a member of the Red Sox.
A 27-year-old two-time All-Star, Bogaerts has eight home runs, eight doubles and an .855 OPS and would be an attractive option for multiple clubs. There are complicating factors, however.
The six-year, $120 million extension Bogaerts signed with Boston in April 2019 affords him a full no-trade clause once he's accrued seven years of service time, which he will have done heading into this offseason. He can also opt out after 2022.
That could hamper the Sox's efforts to move him, though it's not a given Bogaerts would block a trade to a contender, and he'd still have at least two years (at $20 million per) remaining on his deal.
Chances he'll be traded: Low
No. 6: Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers were involved in multiple pre-deadline rumors involving right-hander Lance Lynn (more on him in a moment) and slugger Joey Gallo.
Both stayed put, but expect their names to pop up in trade talk again this offseason.
The 26-year-old Gallo was an All-Star in 2019 when he swatted 22 home runs with a .986 OPS in 70 games before a broken hamate bone in his right wrist cut his season short. He's hitting just .178 in 2020, though he's swatted seven home runs in 144 plate appearances.
Gallo has game-changing pop, teased excellent all-around production a year ago and is controllable through 2022.
If he finishes the season on a hot streak, he could be an enticing offseason trade piece for Texas, which is mired well under .500 and should try to bolster a farm system we ranked No. 24.
Chances he'll be traded: Medium
No. 5: Lance Lynn, Texas Rangers
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Sticking with the Rangers, they also apparently discussed Lance Lynn with multiple teams, including the New York Yankees. According to SNY's Andy Martino, the Rangers' demand was two of outfielder Clint Frazier and pitching prospects Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt.
That's a steep ask, and New York passed. But Lynn was a top-five AL Cy Young Award finisher in 2019 and owns a 2.67 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 57.1 innings this year. It wasn't unreasonable for Texas to seek a big return.
Lynn will turn 34 in May and will earn $9.3 million in 2021 before reaching free agency. If the Rangers revisit a trade this offseason, they may have to lower their demands.
Still, with few ace-level pitchers set to be available in free agency, Lynn should generate ample interest and could net Texas a solid haul.
Chances he'll be traded: Medium
No. 4: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs have some tough decisions looming in the near future. Multiple members of the core that won them a championship in 2016 and has them in first place in the NL Central are set to hit free agency after the 2021 season, and the Cubs may not be able to afford to keep them all.
That list includes third baseman Kris Bryant.
The 28-year-old won NL MVP honors in 2016 and was an All-Star last season with 31 homers and a .903 OPS. This year, he's been hampered by wrist and finger injuries and has hit just .182 in 19 games. Still, he's one of the game's brightest talents.
Chicago could try to extend him this offseason or sign him on the open market after 2021. Given his struggles, his trade stock may not be at an all-time high this offseason.
But if the Cubbies don't think they can lock up Bryant long-term, this winter will be the moment to cash in their franchise player and restock their No. 27-ranked farm system.
Chances he'll be traded: Medium
No. 3: Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs
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Kyle Schwarber is another Cub who's ticketed for free agency after the 2021 season and could be on the trading block.
He swatted 38 home runs with an .871 OPS in 2019 and has 10 homers and an .825 OPS in 37 games this season. And he hits the ball hard. According to Statcast, Schwarber's 94.1 mph average exit velocity is the fourth-highest in baseball.
Yet the 27-year-old has always seemed best suited for designated hitter duties. The Cubs have used him just five times in that role this season even with the universal DH. But the minus-11 defensive runs saved he's posted in his career as an outfielder speak to his shortcomings with the leather.
With contract decisions looming on Bryant as well as first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Baez (both are also set to become free agents after next season), Schwarber will be a player to watch closely in trade discussions.
Chances he'll be traded: Medium
No. 2: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland
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A four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, shortstop Francisco Lindor is the face of the franchise in Cleveland.
He's also nearing his final year of arbitration before he reaches free agency. The chances that penny-pinching Cleveland will ink him to an extension or sign him once he hits the market are slim at best.
The team is contending for the AL Central crown behind its superlative pitching staff in 2020 and held on to Lindor at the deadline.
This offseason, however, will be the time for Cleveland to trade him. A contender with deep pockets and prospects to spare could acquire him and then try to extend him the way the Dodgers did with Betts.
It'll be painful for Cleveland to part with an elite talent, but it would be more painful to watch him walk away after 2021 with nothing but a compensatory draft pick to show for it.
Chances he'll be traded: High
No. 1: Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
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Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado was a hot trade-talk subject before the 2020 season. In January, MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported the Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals had gotten deep enough into discussions to exchange names.
Arenado remained with Colorado, and the Rockies are fighting for a playoff spot. But expect the five-time All-Star and seven-time Gold Glove winner to feature in more rumors this offseason.
Arenado signed an eight-year, $260 million extension with the Rox in February 2019. But in January, he expressed unhappiness with the club, telling MLB.com's Thomas Harding, "There's a lot of disrespect from people there that I don't want to be a part of."
Arenado can opt out of his contract after the 2021 season. Assuming he does, it seems likely the 29-year-old would seek a landing spot other than Colorado.
With that possibility looming, this offseason would be the moment for the Rockies to get a strong return in prospects and/or MLB-ready pitchers. And, as with Lindor, the club that acquired Arenado could then seek to sign him to an extension.
Chances he'll be traded: High
All statistics accurate as of Saturday and courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.
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