Saints Would Be Making a Mistake by Going All-In on Alvin Kamara

At this point, it looks as though the New Orleans Saints are going to pay up to extend running back Alvin Kamara's contract. But while Kamara is one of the sport's top offensive weapons, doing so would be an error. 

The Pro Bowl running back recently stayed away from training camp for several days on an unexcused absence that ESPN's Adam Schefter reported was believed to be contract-related. But now he's back on the practice field, and recent reports from NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and ESPN's Jeremy Fowler suggest a deal could be close. 

The good news for Saints fans is Fowler's report states Kamara isn't seeking a deal in the same range as the one signed earlier this offseason by Carolina Panthers back Christian McCaffrey, who reset the running back market with a four-year pact worth just over $16 million per season. 

The bad news is Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson reports that the team is "comfortable" making the 25-year-old one of the five highest-paid running backs in the league. 

That would mean an average annual salary of at least $12 million per season, which would be unbelievably prohibitive for the Saints beyond the 2020 season. 

Spotrac projects the Saints to enter the 2021 offseason nearly $78 million over a salary cap that might not increase and could actually decrease as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. That number would surely shoot up more with Kamara inked to a new long-term deal, which would make it incredibly difficult if not impossible to keep the team together with quarterback Drew Brees, left tackle Terron Armstead, right tackle Ryan Ramczyk and cornerback Marshon Lattimore all entering contract years in 2021. 

Yes, Brees could retire, but that would only increase the chances that Kamara would be making primo dollars on a rebuilding roster beyond 2020. And even when Brees does step aside, he won't simply come off the books. If he were to retire next spring, he'd still count $22.7 million against the salary cap in 2021. 

The Saints should be putting all of their eggs in this year's basket. Beyond that, it'll be very tough to compete even if Brees sticks around. He'll be 42 in 2021, and precedents indicate there's a good chance he'll decline rapidly before then. By then, Armstead will be on the wrong side of 30, Demario Davis will be 32 and Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders will be 34, and the Saints will likely have to cut a significant amount of fat. 

Kamara might not be a luxury they can afford at that point. Instead, they can pay him $2.4 million for the final year of his rookie contract, see if he holds up in his fourth pro season and then decide whether it's worth it to hit him with a long-term deal or the franchise tag. 

And yes, Kamara is a luxury but not necessarily essential. Few running backs are in this comically pass-heavy era, even when they catch passes as effectively as Kamara. 

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

The Tennessee product has compiled exactly 81 receptions in each of his first three NFL campaigns, but his yards-per-target rate has plummeted from 8.3 in 2017 to 6.8 in 2018 to 5.5 in 2019. He also saw his touchdown total decline substantially (he scored just six times after finding the end zone on 31 occasions in his first two seasons combined) while his rushing yardage total sunk as well. 

He says he played through a knee injury last year, which is a perfectly reasonable explanation for a decline in production across the board, but durability will likely only become more of a factor for a speed-dependent back who also dealt with knee issues in college. 

And even when Kamara is healthy, he simply isn't involved enough to justify a heavy expense at that position. 

McCaffrey averaged 25.2 touches per game last season. Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys averaged 22.2. Derrick Henry's average was 21.4, Le'Veon Bell's was 20.7 and Joe Mixon's was 19.6. But Kamara averaged just 18.0 touches per outing in 2019 and 18.3 per game in 2018. His 2019 workload was tantamount to that of Todd Gurley, who was the poster child for reduced reps with the Los Angeles Rams. 

There's only so much you can do without the ball in your hands, and Kamara has never been the centerpiece. Not in New Orleans (Michael Thomas is Brees' top weapon) and not at Tennessee (Jalen Hurd was the top option in 2015, and quarterback Joshua Dobbs was his own pet weapon in 2016). 

Bill Feig/Associated Press

That's why paying him centerpiece-level money is an indulgence, especially when you consider that the New Orleans offense hardly missed a beat when he was injured in 2019. 

Kamara says he hurt his knee Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He missed the next two games and returned after the Week 9 bye, but New Orleans scored 67 total points in two victories by double-digit margins without him.

And in Week 14, Kamara put together arguably the worst performance of his career when he averaged a career-low 1.9 yards per attempt on 13 carries and picked up only 18 yards through the air. Yet the New Orleans offense scored 46 points anyway against the vaunted San Francisco 49ers defense. 

That's not to say Kamara doesn't matter. Those samples are small, and over the course of a full season, there's little doubt he adds tremendous value. But that value disappears if his salary skyrockets and causes the Saints to bleed elsewhere. 

Long-term holdouts are practically impossible under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, so Kamara isn't going anywhere in 2020. Unless they get a massive discount from him on a long-term deal, the Saints should pass and focus on the short term at that devalued, unpredictable, short-shelf-life position. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.