Way-Too-Early Team-by-Team MLB Free-Agency Predictions Post-2020 Trade Deadline
The 2020 MLB trade deadline has come and gone. The focus now is on the fast-approaching postseason, with its expanded 16-team format.
While we wait for the October excitement to unfold, let's make some way-too-early offseason free-agency predictions.
This involves ample guesswork and conjecture, obviously. But the recently concluded deadline offers some clarity as to clubs' needs and intentions, helping us make one educated prognostication per team.
Obviously, many teams will make more than one move, but this at least gives us a starting point as we look ahead to what should be an interesting offseason.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: They won't make any significant moves
The Baltimore Orioles got off to a surprisingly strong start in 2020 before sinking below .500, selling some pieces such as reliever Mychal Givens at the deadline and settling into their role as a rebuilding team with its eyes on the future.
The O's should remain on that trajectory this winter. They don't have many players left to trade but should give their No. 11-ranked farm system another year to develop while avoiding any significant financial commitments in free agency.
Boston Red Sox: They'll let Jackie Bradley Jr. walk
The Boston Red Sox are ticketed for last place in the AL East and sold off multiple assets before the deadline, including closer Brandon Workman and first baseman/designated hitter Mitch Moreland. Clearly, Boston is headed for a full-scale retool, if not outright rebuild, a path it indicated in February when it sent star right fielder Mookie Betts and left-hander David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Designated hitter J.D. Martinez isn't likely to opt out of his deal after a subpar offensive season, but outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. will be a free agent. Boston shouldn't be among the clubs to pursue the 30-year-old, who has spent his entire eight-year career with the Red Sox.
New York Yankees: They'll re-sign Masahiro Tanaka
After signing ace Gerrit Cole to a massive deal last offseason, the New York Yankees will be in the market for starting pitching again. They could pursue external options, but the first order of business may be bringing back right-hander Masahiro Tanaka.
The 31-year-old has been up and down in 2020, but overall he has posted a 3.38 ERA through six starts. Given his comfort and familiarity with the organization and the scarcity of impact arms available in free agency, expect New York to ink Tanaka to a multiyear pact and allow him to finish his big league career in pinstripes.
Tampa Bay Rays: They'll sign James McCann
The Tampa Bay Rays are in first place in the AL East thanks to a strong pitching staff and a balanced lineup. And the future is bright for Tampa Bay, which boasts the game's No. 1 farm system.
The small-market Rays aren't likely to hand out any mega-deals in free agency, nor do they need to. But they could improve a catching core that has produced little offensively and may lose Mike Zunino to free agency.
One option? Veteran and 2019 All-Star James McCann, who has posted a .968 OPS in 17 games as an overqualified backup for the Chicago White Sox.
Toronto Blue Jays: They'll re-sign Robbie Ray
The Toronto Blue Jays beefed up their pitching staff at the deadline, particularly with the acquisition of left-hander Robbie Ray from the Arizona Diamondbacks.
After posting an unsightly 7.84 ERA in 31 innings with Arizona, Ray looked solid in his Jays debut, striking out four and allowing one earned run in 3.1 frames.
It's a tiny sample, obviously, but if Ray continues to make a change-of-scenery turnaround with Toronto, the club could bring the 28-year-old back in free agency and hope he rediscovers his 2017 All-Star form.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: They'll re-sign Alex Colome
The Chicago White Sox are bursting with young talent, including Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada on offense and Lucas Giolito at the head of the starting rotation.
The ChiSox could lose a key bullpen piece, however, if closer Alex Colome walks via free agency. The 31-year-old has a 0.68 ERA with seven saves and 11 strikeouts in 13.1 innings. Chicago could let him go and seek relief reinforcements elsewhere on the market.
But we're betting they'll bring him back on a multiyear deal to once again front a bullpen that has mostly been a strength this season.
Cleveland: They'll sign Michael Brantley
Cleveland is squarely in the mix for the AL Central crown thanks to a superlative pitching staff that ranks third in baseball with a 2.74 ERA entering play Friday and in spite of an offense that ranks 24th with a .697 OPS.
Cleveland's outfield, in particular, has struggled. And while the crop of free-agent outfielders isn't particularly deep, the team could reunite with Michael Brantley.
The 33-year-old spent his first 10 big league seasons with Cleveland and has a .903 OPS in 22 games with the Houston Astros. On a two- or three-year deal, he could provide an offensive jolt and a familiar face.
Detroit Tigers: They won't make any significant moves
Like Baltimore, the Detroit Tigers have surpassed expectations this season and hung around the postseason picture.
But it's all about the future for the rebuilding Tigers, who should focus on trading any veteran piece they can this winter (expect another round of trade talk surrounding left-hander Matthew Boyd) and adding prospects to their No. 6-ranked system.
At the same time, they should continue to develop young talent such as right-hander Casey Mize, left-hander Tarik Skubal and top position-player prospect Spencer Torkelson, who could debut and play a key role in 2021.
Kansas City Royals: They re-sign Alex Gordon
The Kansas City Royals sold assets at the deadline, including late-inning reliever Trevor Rosenthal to the San Diego Padres. That was the right approach for a club with a farm system that checks in at No. 9 but whose contention window won't open for another season or two.
Look for versatile infielder Whit Merrifield to feature in offseason trade rumors, and don't expect the Royals to do too much on the free agency front. One exception: Out of a sense of nostalgia and loyalty, K.C. may re-sign left fielder Alex Gordon.
The 36-year-old is hitting just .221 and should accept a modest one-year pact to finish his career with the Royals after winning seven Gold Gloves and making three All-Star appearances with the team and helping them win a title in 2015.
Minnesota Twins: They'll re-sign Nelson Cruz
Eventually, age will catch up to Nelson Cruz, but not yet. The 40-year-old has been a revelation for the Minnesota Twins in 2020 with a 1.087 OPS and an MLB-leading 13 homers.
Even given his age and the fact that he's limited to designated hitter duties, he'll surely draw interest on the free-agent market. And the list of suitors could grow to include multiple NL clubs if the universal DH becomes a permanent fixture.
The Twinkies don't typically spend big, but look for them to do what it takes to bring back their lineup anchor and veteran leader on a lucrative, one- or two-year deal.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: They'll re-sign George Springer
The Houston Astros need pitching, with closer Roberto Osuna and ace Justin Verlander both sidelined with injuries. Yet they added no impact arms at the deadline.
That ought to be a priority in the offseason, but the Astros' first order of business will be retaining at least one of their impending free agents: 30-year-old outfielder George Springer.
Springer has hit just .194 in 28 games with the 'Stros in 2020, but he posted a .974 OPS and finished seventh in AL MVP voting in 2019. He'll get offers in a weak outfield FA class, but suitors may be hesitant given Houston's sign-stealing stain, which would allow the Astros to bring him back on a multiyear deal that, while lucrative, won't necessarily break the bank.
Los Angeles Angels: They'll sign Trevor Bauer
The Los Angeles Angels are in last place in the AL West. One of the primary culprits is a starting rotation that ranks 25th with a 5.06 ERA.
The Halos traded away some pieces at the deadline, including catcher Jason Castro and infielder Tommy La Stella. But their commitment for 2021 should be to get Mike Trout back to the postseason, where he's played just three games in his career.
With that in mind, they should make a strong push to sign right-hander Trevor Bauer, a Southern California native who owns a 2.13 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 38 innings for the Cincinnati Reds and would instantly be the ace of their suspect staff.
Oakland Athletics: They'll lose all their major free agents
The Oakland Athletics are in first place in the division and positioned to make a deep postseason run. They are also perennial small spenders who could lose an array of impact free agents this offseason.
Shortstop Marcus Semien, closer Liam Hendriks and key relievers Yusmeiro Petit and Joakim Soria are set to hit free agency, as are trade-deadline acquisitions La Stella and left-hander Mike Minor.
It's possible the A's could bring one or more back, but given the relatively weak nature of the 2020-21 free-agent class and Oakland's financial limitations, the best bet is on the club once again saying goodbye to a gaggle of impactful performers.
Seattle Mariners: They won't make any significant moves
The rebuilding Seattle Mariners have the game's No. 2-ranked farm system, and outfielder Kyle Lewis has emerged as an AL Rookie of the Year contender and future star.
But after selling at the deadline, the M's are still gazing ahead toward contention, so they shouldn't spend any significant money on a ho-hum free-agent market.
General manager Jerry Dipoto will surely keep the trading phone lines open for veterans such as third baseman Kyle Seager as the Mariners graduate more MiLB talent in 2021.
Texas Rangers: They won't make any significant moves
The Texas Rangers entered 2020 with hopes of contending. Now, after a series of injuries and subpar performances, they're well below .500 and look headed for a retool/rebuild.
They'll likely decline the $18 million club option for big 2020 trade acquisition Corey Kluber, who threw just one inning for Texas before going down with a shoulder injury.
Instead of pushing their chips back in, the Rangers should try to trade assets such as right-hander Lance Lynn to strengthen their No. 24-ranked farm.
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta: They'll sign Justin Turner
Atlanta may not have done enough to upgrade its starting rotation at the deadline, unless you're especially bullish on journeyman left-hander Tommy Milone, whom the club acquired from the Orioles. But the potential return of emerging ace Mike Soroka from Achilles surgery next season could be the equivalent of a big signing.
Atlanta should seek an upgrade at third base, however, where internal options such as Austin Riley and Johan Camargo have yielded less-than-stellar results.
The most intriguing free agent at the hot corner is probably Justin Turner. He'll turn 36 in November and is dealing with a hamstring injury, but he finished in the top 10 in NL MVP voting in 2016 and 2017 and hit 27 homers with an .881 OPS last season. Assuming the Dodgers let him walk, he could be a great, playoff-tested pickup for Atlanta on a high-dollar short-term deal.
Miami Marlins: They'll sign Yasiel Puig
Yasiel Puig was almost on Atlanta's roster before a positive COVID-19 test slammed the brakes on that agreement in July.
Now, Puig is dangling in free agency, which seems ludicrous. He's 29 years old and hit 24 home runs with 19 stolen bases last season between Cincinnati and Cleveland. Even considering his past maturity issues, he tracks as a player clubs should covet.
Puig has been connected to the Marlins in the past, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Given his Cuban roots, it's a natural fit. Miami is a surprise playoff contender, but its focus should be on the future. A reasonable short-term pact for Puig could straddle that line.
New York Mets: They'll re-sign Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman opted out of the 2020 season before he threw an inning with the New York Mets. In 2019, after coming over in a trade from the Blue Jays, he posted a 3.77 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 59.2 innings for the Mets.
Stroman will be entering his age-30 season in 2021. He's a New York native and a solid fit to supplement ace Jacob deGrom in the starting rotation.
He'll draw interest from elsewhere, including possibly the Yankees. But assuming the Mets hold no ill will from the opt-out (which they shouldn't), this seems like a natural fit.
Philadelphia Phillies: They'll re-sign J.T. Realmuto
Catcher J.T. Realmuto leads the Philadelphia Phillies in home runs (9) and RBI (26). He's also near and dear to Phillies star Bryce Harper's heart.
Realmuto will enter his age-30 season in 2021 and rates as the game's No. 2 pitch framer. He's a premium player at a premium position.
It'll cost the Phils, but given what he's done for them and his connection to Harper, they'll shell out the required years and bucks.
Washington Nationals: They'll sign Mike Minor
The Washington Nationals sit in last place in the NL East and appear unlikely to repeat as MLB champs in 2020.
Still, they have an exciting young offensive core built around outfielder Juan Soto and will hope to get right-hander Stephen Strasburg back in 2021 following carpal tunnel syndrome surgery.
But with Strasburg's injury and ace Max Scherzer entering his age-37 season, the Nats could look to bolster their starting corps with a veteran such as 32-year-old Mike Minor, who was an All-Star with Texas in 2019 but could be had on a shorter-term pact after posting uneven results thus far in 2020.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: They'll re-sign Jon Lester
The Chicago Cubs made moves to shore up their bullpen and add supplementary offensive pieces before the deadline.
Entering the 2021 season, they'll be looking to strike the balance between going all-in and building for the future behind a farm system we ranked No. 27.
The Cubbies might say goodbye to 36-year-old left-hander Jon Lester, who owns a 5.11 ERA in seven starts this season. Then again, Lester has made a pair of All-Star teams and twice finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young Award voting with the Cubs. Don't be shocked if Chicago retains him on a one-year pact with a club-controlled opportunity for a second year.
Cincinnati Reds: They'll re-sign Nick Castellanos
In the first year of a four-year, $64 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds, outfielder Nick Castellanos has 10 home runs and an .894 OPS.
The 28-year-old has cooled down after a scalding start, but he's shown middle-of-the-order tendencies in his prime.
He has an opt-out this offseason that he seems likely to take given his output and the paucity of difference-making bats on the market.
The Reds, who sit on the edge of contention, should seize the chance to rework the deal and keep Castellanos in the fold.
Milwaukee Brewers: They'll re-sign Brett Anderson
The Milwaukee Brewers are the definition of mediocrity in 2020 and made no significant additions at the 2020 trade deadline.
They could improve an offense that ranks 26th with a .683 OPS or bolster a pitching staff that's tied for No. 19 with a 4.76 ERA.
The Brew Crew could spend big...but who are we kidding? A far more likely outcome is Milwaukee re-upping a mid-tier player such as left-hander Brett Anderson (4.18 ERA).
Pittsburgh Pirates: They won't make any significant moves
The Pittsburgh Pirates entered play Thursday last in baseball with an 11-24 record and last in the NL with a minus-48 run differential.
The Bucs rank No. 16 in our farm system rankings, but they're at least a year or two away from contention.
In the meantime, and including the upcoming offseason, the Bucs should seek to offload assets via trade and avoid taking on any noteworthy financial commitments.
St. Louis Cardinals: They'll re-sign Yadier Molina
Catcher Yadier Molina has made nine All-Star teams and won nine Gold Gloves behind the dish for the St. Louis Cardinals.
This season, he's hitting .303 in 20 games with the Cards.
Molina will enter his age-39 season in 2021. In a world of analytics, the Cards would say goodbye. But we live in a world of optics, and Molina has earned a farewell season with St. Louis, hopefully in front of the St. Louis faithful, to close out a Hall of Fame-caliber career.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: They won't make any significant moves
The Diamondbacks pulled a number of levers this offseason in an effort to contend, and none of them worked especially well.
The D-backs traded away assets such as Robbie Ray and Starling Marte, while big pickups including lefty Madison Bumgarner wilted because of underperformance and injury.
The Snakes can reset the calculus this winter, but considering their disastrous 2020, it seems unlikely they'll be big buyers this winter.
Colorado Rockies: They'll re-sign Kevin Pillar
The Colorado Rockies are hanging around the edge of the NL playoff race, and they opted to buy at the deadline rather than sell and upgrade a farm system we ranked No. 29 in the game.
Colorado could sell this winter. Expect superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado's name to churn through the rumor mill.
But if the Rox slip into the postseason in 2020, they could aim for contention again in 2021 and re-up ancillary pieces such as outfielder Kevin Pillar, acquired from the Red Sox at the deadline.
Los Angeles Dodgers: They won't make any significant moves
This may sound out of character for a club in clear win-now mode that has made a series of headline-grabbing trades and free-agent acquisitions in recent years.
But the Dodgers and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman are smart, and this year's crop of free agents doesn't feature many A-list names.
Also, L.A. won't enter the winter with many glaring needs. Yes, it could use a third baseman if Turner exits, and might sign a mid-tier name such as Tommy La Stella or Jake Lamb. They'll also need to make decisions on outfielder Joc Pederson and reliever Blake Treinen.
But this could be a quiet offseason for the Dodgers, whether or not they win their first title since 1988.
San Diego Padres: They'll re-sign Trevor Rosenthal
The San Diego Padres made a flurry of moves ahead of the 2020 trade deadline, adding difference-making names, including right-hander Mike Clevinger.
One of the Friars' most notable upgrades, however, came in a bullpen that ranked 22nd with a 4.98 ERA entering play Thursday. That would be veteran Trevor Rosenthal, who posted a 3.29 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 13.2 innings for the Kansas City Royals and tossed a scoreless frame with two K's in his debut with the Friars.
With injured closer Kirby Yates set to hit free agency, this feels like a place where the Padres could put their money.
San Francisco Giants: They won't make any significant moves
New president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi seems committed to keeping the Giants on course for contention in a couple of years at the soonest.
In the meantime, they may hang around the playoff picture with contributors such as outfielder Mike Yastrzemski.
The Giants may extend a qualifying offer to the likes of righty Kevin Gausman and will no doubt ink several lesser-known players, but it'll be at least another offseason before they open the purse strings for a headline-grabbing free agent.
All statistics current as of Thursday and courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
.jpg?w=600 "Grading every NFL team's draft")