Kentucky Derby 2020 Odds: Latest Field Betting Lines After Post Positions Draw

Tiz the Law remains the favorite after Tuesday's post positions draw, but he now has one more obstacle in his way to capturing the second jewel of the Triple Crown: history. 

That's because the Belmont Stakes winner will break from the 17 gate, a spot that has never produced a Derby winner. 

Historically, it's been difficult for horses in the outermost posts to come away with the roses. According to Tadd Haislop of the Sporting News, posts 17-20 have only generated four winners in the Derby's history, although one of them was 2019 winner Country House, who broke from the 18th gate. 

Tiz the Law's strongest competitors will join him on the outside. Honor A. P. drew the 16th spot this year and Authentic will start all the way on the outside at 18. 

The field took a blow on Tuesday morning as contender Art Collector withdrew from the race with a foot ailment, per Kentucky Sports Radio. 

The loss of Art Collector hurt an already shallow field but took away a chance for a great story. The horse was the hometown favorite, with all of his connections having ties to Louisville. 

What's left is an 18-horse field that is top-heavy with betting favorites and littered with longshots. Here's a look at the latest odds after the post position draws. 

Race Preview

Tiz the Law comes in as a huge favorite, but there are plenty of challenges that lie ahead. Not only has the 17-spot never yielded a winner, but he'll be facing a much larger field than the 10-horse one that he saw in the Belmont Stakes. 

Still, he's 4-for-4 as a three-year-old, with a win as recently as August 8 when he won the Travers Stakes in Saratoga, New York. In all four starts, he's reached an Equibase speed figure of 112 or more, which gives him top-line speed to burn. 

If there's a case to be made against the favorite cashing in on his odds, it's the 18-horse field and the fact his only career loss has come at Churchill Downs. He finished third in a graded stakes race on the track as a two-year-old. 

The horse that claimed victory that day is not in the Derby field, but Finnick the Fierce, who took second, will start from the first post position. 

The biggest threats to Tiz the Law's bid for history reside on the outside, though.

It starts with Honor A. P. who might not have the top-line speed of his opponent (his highest speed figure is 106 on the year) but could have the endurance to outlast Tiz the Law on the final stretch of the 1¼-mile track. 

Authentic is also one of the most accomplished contenders in the field. He won the G1 Haskell Stakes in July, is 4-for-5 in his starts this year and has hit speed figures over 105 in three of his last four races. Bob Baffert is another reason to believe in the colt. He's looking to tie the record for most Derby wins by a trainer with his sixth victory. 

The concern is that he's not going to be able to cover the distance. He was outrun by Honor A. P. in his lone loss of the year and will face an even longer track on Saturday. 

The post draw certainly makes a few of the bigger longshots interesting plays for Saturday. The five and 10 posts are among the most popular among winners of the Derby. Ten winners have started in the fifth gate, while nine have come out of 10. 

Major Fed is facing long odds at 50-1 coming out of a lucky spot this year. The Kentucky-bred horse would be a great story if he puts in a good showing, especially after Art Collector bowed out. Trainer Greg Fole, who will be running his first derby, believes the distance of the race will be a benefit for his colt. 

"It's great to have one that I like good enough to take over there and run him, which I do," Foley said, per Jason Frakes of the Louisville Courier Journal. "I think he deserves to be in the race. He's a nice colt. I think he'll love the distance and be running at the end of it."

Coming out of the 10-spot is Thousand Words. The Florida-bred horse has a better shot at taking advantage of that position as he seems to be peaking at the right time. His most impressive performance came at the Shared Belief Stakes, where he held off Honor A. P. in the 1 1/16-mile race. 

With all of the heavy favorites starting on the outside and needing to find their way to the inside of a crowded field, the path is open for a surprise contender to put in a strong showing and possibly even find a way to win. 

A horse like Thousand Words with a good post position, an experienced trainer in Baffert and a solid recent win on his record could have a chance to shock.